GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

This week’s note is very brief. On politics, we focus on Turkey’s potential Syria campaign, as President Erdogan has served final notice on Saturday that the Turkish military has been given marching orders to enter North East Syria. He wants a safe zone badly for a variety of reasons. The risk...

Gulf weekly: Saudi rating downgraded; hints of possible Saudi-Iran talks

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Oct 2019

Fitch’s downgrade of Saudi Arabia to A, in the aftermath of the Abqaiq attack but still leaves its rating well above market-implied levels. The fact that Qatar’s GDP contracted for the first in 26 years is less dramatic than it sounds. There was also GDP data for Saudi (fine) and PMI data for Sa...

Hungary in the centre of the Brexit endgame?

HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Oct 2019

In a rather unusual story, two British newspapers (Telegraph and Express) reported Hungarian foreign minister Péter Szíjjártó and Hungary's ambassador to the UK to have been spotted as leaving the building of the UK Cabinet Office on Friday morning, around the time when PM Boris Johnson reportedl...

Moreno’s economic knock out

ECUADOR · Report · 05 Oct 2019

Moreno took many by surprise announcing an elimination of fuel subsidies instead of the expected VAT increase requested by the IMF to comply with a 1.5% of GDP increase in revenues for next year.This measure needs no approval from the assembly and would render results starting this month if the g...

Politics: Education counter-reform has arrived

MEXICO · Report · 30 Sep 2019

Last week Congress approved an administration proposal to roll back the essential aspects of the 2013 reform that were designed to free the public education system of decades of corporatist political rule in which the teachers' union had come to exert control over most of the system. The core ele...

El SALVADOR: Improvement likely in 2020

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Sep 2019

El Salvador has this year been suffering the combined effects of the political campaign that put President Nayib Bukele in office starting June 1, 2019, and from adverse international economic conditions, with worsening perspectives for 2020. Uncertainty and poor expectations for consumers and in...

Danylyuk has resigned

UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Sep 2019

On Friday, Sept 27, Alex Danylyuk, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security Council wrote on his Facebook page that he confirms his resignation. Press-secretary of Volodymyr Zelenskiy wrote on her page that Danylyuk has submitted a request for resignation before President departed to the US. Toda...

Gulf weekly: No US-Iran talks but Abu Dhabi and Bahrain issue bonds

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Sep 2019

Tensions with Iran and its allies dominated the agenda once again. There was no discernible progress at the UN General Assembly, where the tone and posturing broadly supported our expectations of only a slow movement towards a new nuclear deal but little enthusiasm for escalating the conflict. Th...

Gazprom has purchased its major subcontractor

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Sep 2019

The Russian natural gas supermajor Gazprom sealed the bargain on buying 100% of Stroygazmontach on September 26. Stroygazmontach is Gazprom's main subcontractor and is controlled by Arkady Rotenberg. The price is reported to be between USD 1.1 and 1.5 billion.Gazprom is thinking about buying anot...

Reality versus perception

TURKEY · Report · 29 Sep 2019 · 2 responses

The Political Analyst issues three serious warnings, which are bullet-pointed below to make sure his message gets across: • Signs of an impending Great Earthquake in Marmara Basin-Istanbul are proliferating. • President Erdogan may be serious in his threat to invade North East Syria very soon, ...

Russia delivers weapons to the Central African Republic

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Sep 2019

On September 27 Russia announced it has delivered more weapons to the Central African Republic (CAR). Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explained that the CAR Government needed the arms to fight terrorism. The weapons were provided gratis but Russia will be granted mining rights in recognition of th...

Russia asks NATO to stop nuclear buildup

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Sep 2019

On September 25 Putin asked NATO to stop its deployment of missiles to Europe. Missiles of this type are forbidden pursuant to a US-Russian nuclear agreement but that agreement was annulled on August 2. That was the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). The United States withdrew from i...

Another interest rate cut

INDONESIA · Report · 27 Sep 2019

At its recent Monetary Policy Meeting in September 2019 the Indonesian Central Bank decided to slash the benchmark interest rate once again by 25 basis points, to 5.25%. This is the third interest rate cut in the past three consecutive months. The interest rate cut was driven by the softening of ...

Uncertainty over Russian inflation forecast

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Sep 2019

On September 25 the Russian draft budget was published online. The President held meetings concerning the draft budget. The Ministry of Economic Development forecasts that inflation will be 3.6% by the end of 2019 and 3% by the end of 2020. However, the Bank of Russia predicts inflation will be b...

Regime makes one deal to avoid another

VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Sep 2019

The Maduro regime responded to the opposition’s proposal in Norway-mediated talks with weeks of silence and has now announced a separate “partial deal” with a set of minority parties in a “national dialogue for stability and peace”. The opposition’s proposal had aimed to create the conditions ...