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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Corruption and rule of law in the 4T sphere
MEXICO · Report · 05 Oct 2020

Last week’s shocking Supreme Court ruling authorizing President López Obrador to hold a popular consultation in which voters were to decide whether to put on trial all five previous presidents for any supposed misdeeds tells a very damning story about the state of democracy and the rule of law in...

Pressure on Guedes increases and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Oct 2020

Negotiations around the creation of the Renda Cidadã program continue. Parliamentarians will request that Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (DEM-AP) set a new date for analysis of the presidential vetoes on payroll tax exemptions and the sanitation regulatory framework. On Friday, October 9, elect...

Economics: A few positive signs but still a long way to recovery
MEXICO · Report · 05 Oct 2020

Some of the economic indicators released over the past months proved to be more mixed than the dismal, depression levels reported for the mid-to-late spring amid pandemic lockdown measures that were applied to most industries. July produced another contraction of industrial activity, but this ti...

Where are China’s dollar inflows going?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 05 Oct 2020 · 2 responses

• In recent months the PBoC’s reported foreign exchange reserves have not behaved properly given the huge increase in inflows on the trade and financial accounts. The trade surplus has exploded to 4-5 percent of GDP, from less than half that, and net portfolio inflows are equal to over 2 percent ...

Russia’s political/pandemic update: The light is dim, the tunnel looks longer
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Oct 2020

It looks as though earlier hopes to contain the spread of the coronavirus within a relatively short time frame evaporated in September. Newly registered cases in Europe (including Russia) started to rise much faster, and in the Americas they remained high, as well. The epidemiological situation i...

​Teflon President
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Oct 2020

It is all over the news, 91% of 1,200 surveyed respondents said they approved of President Rodrigo Duterte’s performance and trusted him. The survey was conducted from September 14-20, following one of the worst outbreaks of covid19 in the region and the most stringent and longest lockdowns anywh...

Not bad, but too soon to celebrate
TURKEY · Report · 05 Oct 2020

Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 1%, m/m, in September, with the 12-month rate remaining almost flat over August, at 11.7% (August: 11.8%). The error in our forecast, which was even slightly higher than the consensus (of 1.3%), largely stemmed from food and transportation categories,...

A more prolonged closure supports further accommodation
ISRAEL · Report · 05 Oct 2020

Recent economic indicators, such as weekly credit card purchases and Google mobility, point to economic contraction since the renewed lockdown. The government is leaning towards a more prolonged closure, with a gradual re-opening of activity. Economic deterioration and a more prolonged closure su...

Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict escalates
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Oct 2020

On October 4 the Armenian controlled city of Stepankert was hit by rockets and artillery. The Armenians retaliated with artillery fire and rockets on Ganja which is Azerbaijan's second city. This is a serious escalation of the conflict over the disputed Nagorno Karabakh Region.Both nations have r...

Disputed Kyrgyz election results lead to protests
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Oct 2020

On October 4 Kyrgyzstan held parliamentary elections. President Jeenbekov's allies won. A party needs 7% to get seats in Jororku Kenesh (parliament) Birimduk, Mekenim Kyrgyzstan and the Kyrgyzstan Party are the main pro-government ones. They favor greater integration with the Eurasian Economic Un...

Relatively orderly fiscal deficit reported for H1 2020
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Oct 2020

The main fiscal deficit ratio, put together by the EU's ESA-2010 methodology, came out as 9.1% of GDP for Q2 and 5.3% of GDP for H1 2020. Revenue went down by 5.5% yoy, whereas expenditure rose by 14% yoy in Q2, the corresponding figures being -1.4% yoy for revenue and +12.6% yoy for expenditure ...

A Brief Overview of Some Selected Sectors
TURKEY · Report · 04 Oct 2020

• In this first edition of our sectoral report, we have compiled some anecdotal evidence and data from key sectors/industries to add some tone and color to our macroeconomic analysis. • We kept our focus narrow on just 5 business lines/industries for now, to keep the presentation manageable. If ...

Mind the political fat tails
TURKEY · Report · 04 Oct 2020

Latest developments have shown that President Erdogan does retain enough flexibility to move in the right direction, when he has to. His recent actions proffer some evidence to partially support for the thesis, that has long been advocated by the politics author. The EU has delayed sanctions, ...

A more prolonged closure supports further accommodation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Oct 2020

Highlights of the weekly Israeli macro wrap up:Recent economic indicators reflect growth deterioration:Credit card purchases declined sharply since mid-September (through end-month), especially for tourism, restaurants, leisure, and clothing/furniture/electronics, due to the renewed closure.The G...

EU and American sanctions on Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Oct 2020

On October 2 the US and the EU imposed sanctions on top Belarusian officials. Lukashenka is not among those sanctioned. His exclusion is an attempt to encourage dialogue with the opposition. If this fails his name can be added to the list. EU sanctions require unanimity. Cyprus was the one hold o...

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