GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On November 20 VTB held its annual Russian Calling Investment Forum. Top Russian ministers rowed over who is culpable for the country's anaemic economic growth. The Minister for Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin said that low demand explained feeble growth and that the central bank has miscalcu...

Another round of elections appears increasingly likely

ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Nov 2019

The head of Blue and White (Gantz) announced that he has failed to form a coalition in the 28 days allotted to him, following a similar period in which Netanyahu tried to form a government.We now go to a 21-day period in which anyone can try to form a coalition, but this will require the approval...

The government submits a new tax reform

ECUADOR · In Brief · 20 Nov 2019

Minister Martinez will be submitting today a new tax reform much leaner than the failed bill of last week. The new bill needs to have different proposals to be considered as new piece of legislation and be treated as urgent and be in effect next year. This reform if approved will help the governm...

Land reform in Ukraine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Nov 2019

A bill is going through the Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) that would speed up land reform. There is a seven year minimum term for the lease of farm land. The government is trying to abolish this limit. There are restrictions on the sale of 41 million hectares. In 2001 a law was passed which banned ...

Economics: Mixed credit market signals in 3Q19

MEXICO · Report · 18 Nov 2019

The economic slowdown has partially discouraged businesses from taking out loans or tapping into other financing sources in Mexico, but demand for consumer credit remains strong while mortgages and other housing-related credit grew slightly. We observed the private sector making more debt pl...

The “Alliance for Brazil” marks a restructuring of Brazil’s party system and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Nov 2019

Arrests after a higher court conviction will be a point of discussion in the Lower House and Senate. Wednesday is the deadline for the presentation of amendments to MP #905/19, which deals with labor contracts. The Senate will vote on the Parallel Pension Proposal. On Thursday, the First National...

Soft core inflation and weak underlying growth support a rate cut

ISRAEL · Report · 18 Nov 2019

Although headline GDP growth was robust, GDP growth excluding inventories actually contracted in Q319. The quarter witnessed a contraction of exports, investment in capital goods, and non-durable consumption per capita. We think that both the latest CPI and GDP data support a rate cut of 0.15% on...

Monitoring the pace of recovery

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Nov 2019

There are no doubts that the economy has been rebounding, influenced by rising household consumption and growth of the service sector. The most recent monthly indicators point to continued growth in the third quarter, mainly led by household consumption, in turn driven by a combination of persist...

Belarus argues with Russia over warplanes

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Nov 2019

On November 15 President Lukashenko of Belarus complained that Russia was charging an extortionate amount for military aircraft. He threatened to end a common border that the two had established. Su-30 SM fighters are being purchased by Belarus. According to Belarus they were offered the planes f...

Ukraine’s GDP grew 4.2% y/y in 3Q, above expectations

UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Nov 2019

In 3Q 2019 Ukraine’s GDP grew 4.2% y/y slightly slowing from +4.6% y/y in 2Q. Still the result appeared to be much above expectations. We projected +3.1% for the third quarter, the NBU projected +3.5%. Poor industry performance (-1.0% y/y in 3Q) was the reason for modest estimate. However, it loo...

Russian economy growing

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Nov 2019

The Russian Statistical Agency (Rosstat) claimed that the Russian economy grew up 1.7% in 3Q of this year. This is a considerable improvement on Q2 when the figure was 0.9%. These statistics are to be treated with caution. Rosstat has a reputation for inflating positive figures. A new head of Ros...

A conservative budget 2020: the IMF should be happy

UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Nov 2019

Just on the day of the IMF mission arrival (Nov 14) Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine voted in final version of spending plan 2020. The approved budget 2020 has a modest deficit target of 2.1% of GDP, which should please the IMF officers. Revenues are based on a GDP growth forecast of +3.7% y/y and infla...

Parliament approves law on land reform in first reading

UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Nov 2019

Finally it happened! Verkhovna Rada has just approved law on land reform in first reading with 240 votes (226 needed). The draft law presumes free agri-land circulation. Land could be owned by individuals and legal entities. Foreigners are not allowed to own agri-land plots till 2024. There is a ...

Manufacturing a political crisis

COLOMBIA · Report · 12 Nov 2019 · 1 response

By Latin American standards, Colombia was doing well, led by a pro-market, pro-business leader, who, despite his lack of experience in everyday domestic politics, was known for trying to avoid confrontation and distancing his administration from pork-barrel politics; who intended forcefully to be...

Monetary Policy – The SELIC in the Easing Cycle Final Phases

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Nov 2019

With 12-month inflation significantly below the lower bound of the target interval, all the core IPCA rates highly stable and below the target, inflation expectations anchored, and the economy still lethargic, the Central Bank reduced the SELIC rate to 5% and indicated that at the next COPOM meet...