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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​Cosmic Strategist: Rate hike or capital controls?
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 May 2020

These are personal views of the Cosmic Strategist as channeled by Atilla Yesilada, and not the house view.His Cosmicness is extremely frightened by the slow-motion currency attack that is in progress, maintaining it shall not end by itself “at some point in the near future”. To the contrary, self...

Moves to ease the crisis
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 May 2020

The appointment of Fernando Marcondes de Araújo Leão to be the general director of the Department of Works Against Droughts (DNOCS), replacing José Rosilonio Magalhães de Araújo, signals that the negotiations of President Jair Bolsonaro with the centrist parties (Centrão) are advancing. Araújo Le...

The fiscal deficit surges in April
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 May 2020

The fiscal deficit in April reached 14.9bn ILS, compared to 4.9bn in April 19. The deficit in the LTM reached 4.8% GDP, up from 4.0% one month ago. The MoF expects fiscal revenues to decline by 60bn ILS (4% GDP) compared to the original forecast of January 20, as a result of Covid-19 crisis. In a...

Russian home prices due to fall 20-30%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 May 2020

On May 5 a Russian housing think tank said that house prices are due to fall by up to 30% by the end of 2021. The Institute of Urban Economics made that prediction. This a fairly reliable organization. It is an NGO advising stakeholders in urban development processes. The government provides subs...

Tense climate between Bolsonaro and the press
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 May 2020

The atmosphere between President Jair Bolsonaro and the press became more tense today. During a conversation with journalists near the Alvorada Palace, in Brasília (DF), Bolsonaro denied that he is interfering politically in the Federal Police (PF) and became irritated when asked if he had reques...

US Navy patrols near Russian Arctic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 May 2020

On May 4 an American and a British warship sailed into the Barents Sea. This is near the Russian Arctic. The ships stayed in international waters. NATO has not patrolled here for over 30 years. The US Navy said it needs to practice operating in this environment. Russia aware of the growing import...

Russia and COVID-19: confusing words – perplexing actions
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 May 2020

Given that in the second half of April the number of new daily COVID-19 cases in Russia fluctuated around 5K people, many officials and experts hoped that this number could come down going forward, thus bringing some hope that the lockdown measures could be gradually eased in mid-May. However, in...

The government's macro forecast is much closer to reality now
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 May 2020

The government has delivered an annual update to its convergence program, the report which is due to be handed in to the EU Commission by end-April of each year. At first glance, it seems that the macro forecast included in the document is much closer to the realities of the ongoing Covid-19 cris...

Stability is the target
CHINA · Forecast · 05 May 2020

GDP fell -6.8% y/y after the Chinese economy was hit hard by the coronavirus in Q1. Since the virus in China has been almost contained since March, economic activities have been gradually rebounding, and there have been clear signs of recovery. Industrial output was down -1.1% y/y, up 12.4 pps fr...

China virus check - week ending May 3
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 05 May 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) Steady decline in coal use in the power industry. 2) Traffic congestion dipping but expressway traffic showing gains. 3) Underground metro rail traffic relatively unchanged. 4) Steady increase in most aspects of Baidu searches. 5)...

The increase in domestic issuance is expected to be absorbed without much difficulty
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 May 2020

We expect bond issuance to average 9bn per month in 2H20In May, tradeable domestic bond issuance will reach 10.5bn ILS, double the pace of the previous months. We think this sharp increase is also due to expectations of a large fiscal deficit this year as well as huge redemptions in May of 11.7bn...

Bolsonaro appoints Federal Police Director amid political tension
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 May 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro appointed Ronaldo Alexandre de Souza as the new director-general of the Federal Police (PF). Rolando was chosen five days after the Minister of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Alexandre de Moraes, suspended the appointment of the head of the Brazilian Intelligence Agency...

Politics: The cost of concentrating presidential control
MEXICO · Report · 04 May 2020

The debate over President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s handling of Covid-19 remains a topic of intense discussion amid growing doubts as to the official version of the pandemic’s progression, the degree to which the health system is coping amid the crisis, and the legal maneuvers the government ...

Economics: No one at the wheel as the economy skids
MEXICO · Report · 04 May 2020

Economic news during April continued to confirm the accelerating weakening trend apparent since last year and also offered some very initial indications of how the Covid-19 epidemic will increasingly squeeze the economy. For starters, the March report from Antad showed the country’s retailers exp...

Order restored: Manufacturing PMI is now in line with the Eurozone and the CEE/Turkey
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 May 2020 · 1 response

The extreme historic low of 29.1 reported for the manufacturing PMI for March was way out of line with any of the Euro Area, Poland, Czechia and the Turkey at that time. The Euro Area PMI was still at 44.5 and the other countries reported similar values (Poland 42.4, Czechia 41.3, Turkey 48.1). T...

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