GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On February 2 Mike Pompeo visited Kazakhstan. He lauded Kazakhstan for genuine reforms over the past year. Pompeo also applauded Kazakhstan for not extraditing people to China. The Kazakh Government has not joined US criticism of China for detaining a million people in Xinjiang.Pompeo assured the...

Credit, employment and expectations

COLOMBIA · Report · 04 Feb 2020

The economy seems on track to meet 2019’s 3.3% consensus growth target, and expectations for this year point to something slightly better. Yet averages could mask important differences. Our analysis suggests a credit slowdown is about to begin, which means 2020 could be the peak growth year fo...

Province of Buenos Aires extends once more the deadline to accepts its debt negotiations to 10 AM EST

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 04 Feb 2020

In the middle of the political commotion of the unexpected death this morning of the federal judge Claudio Bonadio, who headed key judicial trials against Christina Fernandez de Kirchner, and while the National Government makes announcements of its planned schedule to renegotiate its debt, the Pr...

Russian GDP: Growth of around 2% expected in 2020

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Feb 2020

Russia's GDP was up 1.3% in 2019, according to Rosstat, well below the 2.5% growth in 2018. Despite the fact that economic growth accelerated in 2H19 the annual growth figure came as no surprise given that GDP was reportedly up only by 0.9% y-o-y in 1H19. The 2017 and 2018 GDP growth numbers w...

Coronavirus causes postponing of Russian investment forum and evacuation of Russians from China

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Feb 2020

On February 4 the postponement sine die of the Sochi Investment Forum was announced due to the coronavirus epidemic. The is a heavy blow because Chinese investment is crucial for upgrading the economy. The Russian Air Force is also evacuating Russian citizens from Wuhan, China.Coronavirus is caus...

Economics: Another month of negative data

MEXICO · Report · 03 Feb 2020 · 1 response

The economic news released in January offered further evidence of a listless economy and the prospect of further weakness to come in what have been the main growth drivers. There were continuing signs of a softening domestic economy as vehicle sales accelerated their fall in December in tandem w...

Central Bank braces for an election year

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 03 Feb 2020

The ruling PLD is seen as positioned to win the majority of districts in the February 16th municipal elections, but the opposition PRM is also expected to make a strong showing, with likely victories in some of the country’s largest municipalities. There are unfortunately few surveys available...

Russian GDP slowdown

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Feb 2020

On February 3 the Russian Statistics Agency released news that GDP grew only 1.3% in 2019. In 2018 it was 2.5%. Growth was also low in the previous two years. In 2015 GDP fell due to sanctions.Some experts do not believe the 1.3% growth figure and suspect that the Russian Statistics Agency (Rosst...

Main items on the agenda in February and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Feb 2020

Congressional activity resumes Monday, February 3. The Joint Committee for Tax Reform is one of the main priorities. The STF will discuss a case related to retirement. The Central Bank holds first meeting of the year to decide the benchmark interest rate. This week’s Talking Points • Main ite...

Politics: The social cost of violence and insecurity

MEXICO · Report · 03 Feb 2020

Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s refusal to meet on January 23 with the couple thousand activists and relatives of those who have been forcibly disappeared or are victims of murders committed with impunity who had marched to Mexico City to meet with him was most likely a serious political miscalcula...

A somewhat bigger step to support the forint today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Feb 2020

Today's weekly FX swap tender was the third in a row at which the MNB gave a clear signal that the forint's recent weakness had reached largely the limits of its tolerance. The Bank rejected all bids today, cutting the stock of FX swaps by HUF 130bn, to HUF 2055bn, effective Wednesday. This came ...

CBR Monetary Policy: Potential impact of the coronavirus

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Feb 2020 · 1 response

This Friday, February 7, the Central Bank of Russia will hold its Board of Directors meeting on monetary policy. This meeting has the so-called “anchor” status and will be followed by a press conference with Chairperson Ms. Nabiullina. The continuing disinflation favors another rate cut. However,...

Labor Market: Slow, but steady improvement

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Feb 2020

After a disappointing third quarter, the labor market picked up in the fourth quarter, with net creation of an annualized flow of nearly 2 million formal jobs. Although that growth pace cannot be extrapolated to the coming quarters, there are many evidences that the recovery of the job market wil...

What does the virus response tell us about China’s economic policy?

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Feb 2020

The Chinese government’s response to the virus tells us a lot about how economic policy will play out over the coming decade. Local decisions, blocking information flow, have given way to a mass campaign on a national scale. However, this suggests the opposite of effective policymaking – the Stat...

The labor market remains tight, supportive of rate stability

ISRAEL · Report · 03 Feb 2020

The labor market remains tight, supportive of some wage pressure and rate stability. Consumer confidence has stabilized in recent months following an improvement in recent years. Apparently, January data resulted in a large fiscal surplus, supporting a decline in the deficit/GDP ratio.