GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On December 2 the Ukrainian Parliament (Rada) voted to end the state monopoly on the production of liquor. This law was a hangover from the Soviet era. The law also provides for the total liberalization of alcohol exports.The state liquor company Ukrspirit is due to be privatized. It has 41 facto...

Manila’s water problems

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Dec 2019

On Tuesday, Manila’s business elites found themselves at the receiving end of President Duterte’s latest tirade. The cause? A ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in Singapore for government to pay Manila Water, one of the metropolis’s two water concessionaires, P7.39 billion (~$145 milli...

South Africa’s Q3 current account deficit narrows on the back of improved terms of trade

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Dec 2019

Today the South African Reserve Bank released the latest current account data that shows the country’s current account deficit narrowed in the third quarter of 2019 - falling from R208.7 billion during the second quarter of 2019 to R190.3 billion in the third quarter, a narrowing of R18.3 billion...

Russo-Chinese pipeline flows

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2019

On December 2 the first gas flowed through the Power of Siberia Pipeline. This supplies LNG from Russia to China. The 3 000 km long pipeline is operated by Gazprom the Russian State gas company. The China National Petroleum Corporation is the partner on the Chinese side. In 2014 the two countries...

Russia-Bulgaria diplomatic row

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2019

On December 5 Russia kicked out a Bulgarian diplomat in reprisal for Bulgaria refusing a visa to a Russian defense attache. In October Bulgaria expelled a Russian diplomat for 'activities incompatible with diplomatic status' which is a euphemism for spying. Russia is Bulgaria's main energy suppli...

Access to EU funds: bad news, bad news and some good news

HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Dec 2019

Talks on the EU budget for 2021-2027 are moving forward and are approaching the last stage on the road towards a political agreement. Most lately, the Finnish presidency's compromise proposal, the outlines of which were already released a few weeks ago, took a concrete form. This contained the fo...

Ukraine-IMF talks stalling

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Dec 2019

Ukraine has a USD 3.9 billion standby arrangement with the IMF. This has almost run to the end of its 14 month lifespan. Ukraine desperately needs another IMF deal. There does not seem to be any other party willing to bankroll Ukraine. Talks are foundering on the issue of PrivatBank and the chanc...

Russia sells arms to Gabon

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Dec 2019

On November 20 the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that it had sold weapons to Gabon. This is the first ever arms sale by Russia to Gabon. The African nation is a former French colony. The weapons sold were small arms and their purpose is supposedly to guard national parks. The country is p...

South Africa’s Q3 GDP surprises on the downside, contracting amid expectations of low but positive growth

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 03 Dec 2019

The previous quarterly GDP data by Stats SA revealed that South Africa had avoided a second consecutive H1 technical recession, as real GDP growth recovered by 3.2% q/q (upwardly adjusted from 3.1%) in the second quarter, from a contraction of 3.1% q/q during the first quarter of 2019. However, t...

Inflation: Up on base effect, sticky underneath

TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2019

Consumer price inflation surprised on the downside in November coming in at 0.4%, m/m, mainly on the back of better than expected food prices (according to our forecast), more specifically unprocessed food prices. As expected though, the 12-month CPI inflation increased to a double-digit 10.6%, y...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Dec 2019

Despite a sometimes half-baked agenda, Brazilian society has been showing signs of maturity, vigor and appreciation for democracy. Siren calls from the extremes of the political spectrum do not entrance the majority, who continue to hope for a united and prosperous country. The recovery of consum...

Russian regulatory guillotine is chopping

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Dec 2019

The Russian government approved two bills intended to reduce the bureaucracy burden facing businesses. The Russian bureaucracy is notorious for its opaque and sclerotic nature. To found a business a person in many cases has to do a paper chase all over a city, getting scores of documents signed o...

Labor Market: Regional Disparities

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Dec 2019

The economic recovery continues being led by household consumption, stimulated by the low interest rate and growth of new lending. Nevertheless, the key variable for better performance is the behavior of the labor market, which has been improving gradually. Although still high, in October the num...

Growth surprises somewhat on the downside

TURKEY · Report · 02 Dec 2019

The Turkish economy grew by 0.9%, y/y, in the third quarter of 2019, broadly in line with expectations, but sequential growth, which is a lot more important to monitor nowadays (given the strong base effects from last year) was somewhat weaker than envisaged, with GDP expanding by 0.4% over the p...

Gulf weekly: Qatar doubles hydrocarbon reserves and talks with Saudi

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Dec 2019

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Aramco’s IPO has received $74bn in domestic orders but only $3bn internationally so far. * Qatar sharply hiked its gas and oil reserves and upsiz...