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OFZ: Going below 6%
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 21 May 2020

Last Friday the yield of the longest OFZ dropped below 6% for the first time ever. Strong demand from both domestic and international investors not only pushed the curve down but also allowed the Finance Ministry to set a new single day placement record this Wednesday — R169 bln. Market participa...

US and Russia row over Venezuela
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 May 2020

On May 19 the US blocked a UN resolution condemning the use of mercenaries in Venezuela. Russia said there was a conspiracy to overthrow President Maduro who is pro-Russian. Maduro said the plot was conceived in Washington DC and his army defeated a seaborne invasion. People have been arrested in...

Russia Q1 data in shows severe GDP fall
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 May 2020

On May 19 Vedomosti newspaper published statistics on Q1 for Russia. There was 1.6% y o y growth. The economy shrank 28% in April. Analysts reckon that most of this is due to quarantine and a third is due to the oil price crash to USD 18 p b. It is estimated that there will be a GDP 16% drop in Q...

Moldova seeks extradition of billionaire fraudster
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 May 2020

Moldova have charged Vlad Plahotniuc with defrauding the country of over USD 1 billion. Plahotniuc is a Moldovan living in the US. From 2012-14 he allegedly stole the money from one of the country's main banks. The theft amounted to over 12% of the country's GDP!The country is seeking Plahotniuc'...

The debate over chloroquine reinforces polarization
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 May 2020

The Ministry of Health today announced a protocol that allows for the use of chloroquine for mild cases of COVID-19 in the Unified Health System (SUS). Until then, the protocol established the prescription of the drug only for more severe cases. This issue was one of the reasons that led to t...

The formal default approaches
ARGENTINA · Report · 20 May 2020 · 1 response

In our May 14 report, we pointed out that the government had passed the ball to the bondholders and was waiting for a counter-proposal to further advance in the current tense debt negotiations. Effectively, local authorities sought more precise definitions from creditors and also to sense how far...

After much ordeal, fiscal bills are passed
ECUADOR · Report · 20 May 2020 · 2 responses

The National Assembly approved both the Humanitarian Bill and the Ordering of Public Finances Bill after days of hot debate and even within the request of Correistas and Social Christians to archive the second bill. While the approval of the Humanitarian Bill introduced major changes eliminating ...

The military gains space in the government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 May 2020

The interim Minister of Health, General Eduardo Pazuello, on May 19 appointed nine men with a military background to positions in the ministry, further expanding the influence of the Armed Forces in the Jair Bolsonaro government. Even though Pazuello is temporarily commanding the Ministry of Heal...

Essential CIS Politics: May 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 19 May 2020

• The coronavirus has continued to spread throughout the region. • Russian oil companies are considering delaying dividend payments. • Ukraine passed a banking act that enables it to receive an IMF loan. • Belarus is behaving as though the coronavirus does not exist. • In Kazakhstan the C...

Covid-19 is retreating
HUNGARY · Report · 19 May 2020

The Covid-19 epidemic has been retreating in the inner part of Europe since late April. Hungary joined this trend with about a week’s lag in early May, its stock number of active cases decreasing since then. The official view currently is that the epidemic is coming to its end, but the threat of ...

China virus check - week ending May 19
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 May 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: * Slowing growth in coal consumption in the power industry. * Traffic congestion is becoming more even. * Expressway traffic patterns have been quite variable, probably reflecting post-holiday movement. * Underground metro rail tr...

Yukos shareholders gain rights to vodka
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 May 2020

On May 7 a Dutch court gave shareholders in Russian oil giant the right to Stolichnaya and Moskovskaya. This is part of a lawsuit over USD 50 billion. Former owners of Yukos have been suing Russia for years. Yukos was declared bankrupt in 2007 and was then amalgamated into Rosneft. This was a maj...

Emergency aid and political appointments shield Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 May 2020

The second installment of the emergency aid benefit in the amount of R$ 600 began to be paid today by the Jair Bolsonaro government to informal workers. The first recipients will be the beneficiaries of the Bolsa Família program. Workers who are in the Cadastro Único and do not receive Bolsa Famí...

Economics: The mirage of 1Q public finance
MEXICO · Report · 18 May 2020

Public finance data for the first quarter confirmed much of what we already knew about government priorities, but raised further points of concern about how well the public coffers will hold up as we move deeper into the recession. The numbers look extremely upbeat at first glance, with public ba...

The danger of financial and fiscal populism in Congress
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 May 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro discusses the veto of the bill that allows for civil servant salary increases with governors. Federal representatives analyze the bill on judicial recovery and bankruptcies during the pandemic and the provisional measure on the reduction of salaries and working hours for ...

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