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China virus check – week ending September 14, 2020
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 17 Sep 2020

A few signs of weakness emerged in the latest batch of data for early/mid September. Auto sales remain strong, but property demand began to weaken, as did film box office. It is too early to point to a sustained downturn in consumer demand although it is possible that the period of pent-up demand...

Ukrainian budget is risky
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Sep 2020

The government has submitted its budget proposal. The budget has been criticized by the Center for Economic Strategy. There are three major issues with it which could impair macroeconomic stability.The deficit is planned to be USD 9.6 billion. That is 6% of GDP. This debt will cost a lot because ...

Bolsonaro authorizes the creation of a new social program, says Budget Rapporteur
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Sep 2020

Senator Márcio Bittar (MDB-AC), Rapporteur for the 2021 Budget, said on September 16 that he was authorized by Jair Bolsonaro to create a new social program to replace Renda Brasil. The previous day, Bolsonaro had said that the discussions would be suspended until 2022 due to differences in the s...

The economic implications of Covid for the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Sep 2020

This extended report assesses how the Covid crisis exposed some of the economic vulnerabilities of Gulf states and how the crisis and policy responses relate to the long-term challenges the Gulf faces from the energy transition and structural weaknesses in their economies. Please follow up on the...

1 in 7 Russian coronavirus vaccine volunteers report side effects
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Sep 2020

Russia's Sputnik V vaccine for coronavirus does not seem to be risk free as first claimed. On September 13 the health minister noted that 1 in 7 of those taking the vaccine have side effects. Final clinical trials are underway. Only 300 people have been vaccinated thus far. 14% of them have felt ...

Visionary spending plan 2021
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Sep 2020

On September 14th Ministry of Finance presented spending plan 2021 to public.Next day it was published in details on the web-site of Verkhovna Rada. Minfin assumes a 4.6% GDP growth, 7.3% ytd (or 8.7% y/y) consumer inflation and UAH 29.1/ USD on average in 2021.Such approach allowed to boost nomi...

Russian industry: gradual recovery to continue
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Sep 2020

According to Rosstat, in August the Russian industry continued its gradual m-o-m recovery, therefore moving toward relatively moderate contraction of around 5.5% in 2020 as a whole. Even in the case of mining, where the oil production is still under the pressure of the OPEC+ deal, there was over ...

Russian stimulus package causes property boom
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Sep 2020

On September 15 the Russian Central Bank's data showed that the government's scheme to revive the economy by supporting mortgages has caused property prices to rise. Mortgages in July and August were 40% up Y o Y. Prices for newly constructed buildings are up significantly.The government brought ...

New conflicts between Bolsonaro and the economic team do not threaten Guedes’s position
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Sep 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro reacted strongly after the Special Finance Secretary of the Ministry of the Economy, Waldery Rodrigues stated in an interview that pensions could be frozen to finance the Renda Brasil program. Through a video posted on Twitter, Bolsonaro said that his government “is forbi...

Inflation in August surprises on the downside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Sep 2020

The CPI remained stable (0.0% m/m) in August and declined by 0.8% y/y (from -0.6% y/y in July). Market expectations (and ours) were for a higher CPI of 0.2% m/m.There was no one factor explaining this low print, eight out of the ten major CPI items witnessed lower or stable prices. Domestic vacat...

New inflation forecast owing to severe gasoline shortage
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Sep 2020

We revise up our September-December 2020 monthly inflation forecasts to the 30-38 percent range, from 23-27 percent in our 11 September 2020 report. Gasoline shortages explain a faster-than-expected rise in prices in the first two weeks in September, and we strongly believe that shortages won’...

Bolsonaro’s popularity reaches 39%, poll shows
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Sep 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro’s popularity is increasing. According to the XP/Ipespe poll, published yesterday, the government’s positive ratings (great/good) reached 39%, surpassing the bad/very bad ratings (36%). The regular rating, in turn, was 24%. This is the first time since May of last year ...

Russian local elections show gains for opposition
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Sep 2020

On September 14 the results of local elections were posted. 18 of Russia's 85 regions elected governors. Some of these gubernatorial races were won by the opposition. Regional and city legislatures also held elections and there were some by-elections for Parliament.Widespread cheating by the main...

Switzerland agrees to return embezzled funds to Uzbekistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Sep 2020

On September 13 it was announced that Gulnara Karimova's confiscated assets will be returned to Uzbekistan. Karimova is the daughter of the late President Karimov. She is suspected of money laundering. An agreement has been signed by the Swiss and the Uzbeks. The funds are CHR 119 million. The mo...

Paulo Guedes’s complex formula and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Sep 2020

This is the final week for political parties to define candidates and alliances ahead of the November municipal elections. In congress, a session that had been scheduled to analyze presidential vetoes, including payroll tax exemptions and sanitation, was cancelled. In the economy, we highlight th...

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