GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The fiscal deficit declined to 3.2% GDP in the LTM due to the lack of an approved budget and one-off revenues. Both business sector and consumer confidence remain elevated, suggesting steady growth into Q120. Despite BoI FX intervention of 2.9bn in January, the shekel appreciated by 1.3% against ...

Huge fiscal surplus in January due to weak spending and strong revenues

ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Feb 2020

Highlights of our weekly macro review: January witnessed a huge fiscal surplus of 5.9bn ILS The LTM deficit declined to 3.2% GDP, from 3.7% in 2019. This is due to the lack of an approved budget reducing spending. In addition, taxes revenues surged on one-off jump in car purchases. VAT purcha...

Life in a parallel universe

TURKEY · Report · 09 Feb 2020 · 1 response

Ankara is continuing with its whatever it takes approach in order to boost growth to a 5% trajectory, as it propagates the now-familiar narrative that this can comfortably be achieved without giving rise to imbalances -- and with a broadly stable lira. It also seems to believe this narrative whol...

Russia cuts interest rate

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Feb 2020

On February 7 Russia reduced its interest rate for the 6th consecutive time. The Russian Central Bank is dealing with weak inflation. The new 6% interest rate will take effect on February 10. The current interest rate is 6.25%. The RUB has not been impacted by the announcement. Inflation in Janua...

Gulf weekly: Coronavirus impacts oil and flights, UAE gasfield discovered, PMIs decline

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Feb 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * OPEC+ is considering an additional 600k b/d cut in response to the coronavirus. * Many Gulf airlines have cancelled China flights, and Saudi has ...

Near-term inflation should slow down

VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Feb 2020

In our last report, we wrote that, with the dollar having skyrocketed in value against the bolivar over the first few days of the year (42 percent in three business days), we expected inflation to accelerate in January. The ensuing burst of inflation proved even stronger than expected, so today w...

Russia to allow simple visas for 53 countries

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Feb 2020

On February 6 it was announced that Russia will allow citizens of 53 countries to visit Russia with an e visa from 2021. These cheap electronic visas will be easy to attain and obviate the need to go to a Russian visa center. The countries that will be eligible for them are several Latin American...

Weak industrial output number in December

HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Feb 2020

The effectiveness of the MNB's most recent efforts to halt the forint's weak trend against the euro may be undercut by an unusually weak industrial output number, which was reported for December earlier today. Output was down by 3.8% mom on sda basis, implying a 3.4% yoy reduction of output in De...

COSTA RICA: Fiscal and monetary update

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 06 Feb 2020

The late disclosure of fiscal figures through December 2019 has caused disappointment about the conduct of public finance. Minister of Finance Rodrigo Chaves presented the results in a press conference on January 29, 2020. Up to November, trends suggested a fiscal deficit with a boundary of 6% of...

South Africa’s economy further derailed by Eskom in 2019, but new developments in energy policy could reduce Eskom’s negative impact

SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 06 Feb 2020

Summary and Assumptions • South Africa’s growth: The last decade was very challenging for the South African economy in a myriad of ways, including growth. The mismanaged economy, along with the resultant insipid growth, lead to a deterioration of South Africa’s macroeconomic fundamentals. What’s...

Extremists and populists – but no majority

PERU · Report · 06 Feb 2020

As expected, no political party won a majority in the rather insipid January special election to elect a new Congress, after President Martín Vizcarra dramatically dissolved the body last September. Votes were spread across the political spectrum. With over 94% of ballots counted, nine parties ha...

Monetary Board cuts policy rates

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Feb 2020

In a move described as “pre-emptive,” the Monetary Board today cut its set of policy rates by 25bp, reducing the key overnight RRP rate to 3.75%. Although the BSP Governor has been signaling that a 50bp rate cut is in store for 2020, we were not expecting a rate cut this early in the year. In his...

Russia's USD 231 billion plan for Arctic oil

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Feb 2020

On February 5 the Russian Government announced a scheme to hugely increase Arctic oil production. Oil companies are being offered inducements to drill north of the Arctic Circle. These are mainly tax cuts - oil production tax will be lowered to 5% for the first 15 years. It is hoped that this wil...

Idlib: A new war might have started

TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Feb 2020

With the killing of 8 Turkish military and civilian personnel in Idlib, the long-feared “war” between Turkey and Damascus may have already started. Today, President Erdogan issued his final warning to Assad by saying "Syria is right now trying to buy time by driving those innocent and grieving pe...

Russia to sell missiles to India

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Feb 2020

On February 5 it was announced that Russia will sell S-400 missiles to India in 2021. This will anger the US and possibly provoke sanctions on India. But India is so gigantic that it is hard to push around. The US previously stated that if India bought military equipment from Russian then sanctio...