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On November 8 Ukraine filed a case in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) against Russia. Ukraine says that Russia has funded terrorism which is against international law. The pro-Russian rebels are not fighting for a sovereign state. Ukraine's argument is that unlawful violence is terrorism...

Trump associate trying to buy Ukrainian aerospace company

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Nov 2019

On November 6 it emerged that Erik Prince is negotiating to buy a Ukrainian aerospace manufacturer. The US is striving to prevent the company from being bought by the Chinese. The company is Motor Sich. Erik Prince is an informal Trump adviser and he is the founder of Blackwater the private secur...

October inflation figures represent a moderate surprise on the upside

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Nov 2019

CPI-inflation for October came out today at 0.6% mom, 2.9% yoy, the latter up from 2.8% in the previous month. The analyst consensus for the yoy rate was in the range of 2.7-2.8%, and our forecast was 2.7%. This moderate negative surprise was mainly blamed on food prices (up 0.8% mom on the globa...

Rumor that Russia will reduce share of USD in National Wealth Fund

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Nov 2019

On November 7 media stories appeared saying it is rumored that Russia will cut the share of USD in its sovereign reserves. An anonymous source in the Ministry of Finance was cited. The government is changing the fund's structure with a view to improving the pension system. Russia has been de-doll...

Polarization likely to remain intense and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Nov 2019

President Jair Bolsonaro will deliver a set of post-Pension Reform proposals to Congress. Pre-salt auctions take place on Wednesday. The Senate may vote on the Parallel Pension Reform proposal, which includes states and municipalities. On Thursday, the Federal Supreme Court resumes discussion on ...

Davids beat the Goliaths

COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Nov 2019

Many an analyst is puzzled that the Central Bank has been holding interest rates constant, while its regional counterparts have started cutting. And the fact that the Bank’s next move next year might be a hike is considered by some to add insult to injury. But we don’t see a puzzle: Colombia is i...

Russia launches icebreaker warship

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Oct 2019

On October 25 Russia announced the existence of a new combat icebreaker named Ivan Papanin. The purpose of the vessel is to defend the Russian Arctic. Earlier in October over 12 000 troops participated in nuclear war drills in the Russian Far North. Russian claims some of the Arctic Shelf althoug...

It is official, Alberto Fernández is the new president-elect

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 28 Oct 2019 · 1 response

Past midnight, with 97.1% of the voting tables accounted for and an overall participation rate of 80.9%, it is official now. Alberto Fernández (AF) and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) are the new presidents-elect of Argentina. AF managed to obtain 48% of the votes (surpassing the 45% hurdle ...

E-day

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 27 Oct 2019

Today’s results of the general elections in Argentina, which are expected to be published between 9 pm and midnight, will put an end to the political limbo that emerged after the surprising result of the primaries in August. The electoral outlook that had been previously nourished by polls, drast...

Bank of Russia cuts interest rates

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Oct 2019

On October 25 the Bank of Russia cut the interest rate to 6.5%. The atmosphere of low inflation, poor domestic growth and the distinct possibility of a worldwide economic slowdown all contributed to the decision. The previous interest rate was 7%. The bank also cited the government's tardiness is...

Policy debates and poor implementation in South Africa are further delaying economic recovery

SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 24 Oct 2019

Summary and Assumptions • South Africa’s growth: Recovery of GDP growth in the second quarter of 2019 helped to contain the growing pessimism regarding the South African (SA) economy. Not only did GDP growth surprise on the upside, but it also meant an aversion of a second technical recession in...

South Africa’s main opposition party in a leadership crisis as three leaders resign in one week

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Oct 2019

South Africa’s main opposition party is the Democratic Alliance (DA), and yesterday its leader, Mmusi Maimane, resigned as party leader. His resignation follows this week’s earlier resignation by DA’s Herman Mashaba as mayor of Johannesburg (the country’s most prosperous region), of which the DA ...

Gulf support likely if Lebanon's budget mollifies other donors

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Oct 2019

The cabinet approval of an ambitious 2020 budget is an important step but it still needs parliamentary approval and many details remain unclear, particularly on cutting interest on local debt. Its proposal to cut the deficit by 10 percentage to -0.6% of GDP is unrealistic but even going half this...

Hopes for an economic rally rise

UKRAINE · Forecast · 22 Oct 2019

People are calling the new Verkhovna Rada the “green (or mad) printer”: green for the Sluha Narodu’s party colors, and printer due to the speed at which this legislature is spitting out bills. Debates over legislation are very brief and largely token, which means that Ukraine will likely discover...

Oslo talks, uncertainty, and sanctions will continue

VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Oct 2019

After two months of silence, the regime seems to have presented a counteroffer to Norwegian diplomats mediating Venezuelan regime–opposition talks. The details aren’t public, but it’s likely that it follows the agreement the regime reached with the four minority ‘loyal” opposition parties. That a...