GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The Monetary Policy Committee reduced the policy rate (weekly repo) by another 50 bps today, bringing the cumulative cuts since July to 1325 bps, and the policy rate to 10.75% (see chart). Probably reflecting the ongoing pressures on the currency, it was a little hard to speak of a consensus befo...

Good king, bad nobles: despite scandals, Zelenskiy still #1

UKRAINE · Report · 19 Feb 2020

The year was off to a bumpy start. January began with the shocking news of the Ukrainian passenger plane crash in Iran. Ukrainian officials seemed unsure of how to react to this tragedy, which killed 176 people. As world leaders began blaming Iran, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was still making v...

Weakening growth and currency, exploding inflation: a more colorful picture than so far

HUNGARY · Report · 18 Feb 2020

The macro picture has become more dynamic and colorful over the past month than previously. The most recent data marks a downward adjustment in industrial output, the most export-driven part of the economy, and more may be coming if the coronavirus problem sets back the Chinese economy to a serio...

Russia-backed fighters unleashed large offensive at Donbas

UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Feb 2020

Today at 5 a.m. near the points of mutual forces’ withdrawal Russia-backed fighters started large-scale shelling of Ukrainian positions and followed with an offensive, according to the headquarter of Ukrainian Army. The battle still continues by the time of this writing. We have not observed that...

Politics: Impunity and objective merit in security

MEXICO · Report · 17 Feb 2020

The crisis of the criminal justice system that has steadily deepened since the federal government’s offensive against organized crime was launched almost 14 years ago is becoming even more visible. And now there is the aggravating factor that some of the most significant steps toward reform, espe...

Brazilian Politics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Feb 2020

This is the week before Carnaval but there are important events on the agenda. Jair Bolsonaro will install Gen. Walter Braga Netto as his Chief of Staff and Onyx Lorenzoni as Minister of Social Development. In the Senate, the CCJ may vote on the Funds Amendment. The Joint Committee on Tax Refo...

Economics: The risks of further rate cuts

MEXICO · Report · 17 Feb 2020

Banco de México’s decision last week to implement its fifth consecutive rate cut in as many meetings validates the fact that interest rates remained high in light of inflation estimates and global monetary policy trends. In the statement that accompanied the rate announcement, Banxico cited conti...

Economic Activity: The Real Deal

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Feb 2020

Economic activity finished 2019 with another disappointing result: the IBC-Br fell by 0.3% in December, after decreasing by 0.1% in November. Despite these clearly negative results, the economy expanded by 0.5% in the fourth quarter, slightly behind the figure for the third quarter (0.6%). We do ...

Negative inflation y/y in Q1 will put pressure on the MPC to act

ISRAEL · Report · 17 Feb 2020

Inflation in January (0.3% y/y) came in at the low end of consensus, with core inflation moderating to 0.35% y/y. Declining inflation y/y is expected to continue in the coming months (-0.3% in March), which will put pressure on the MPC. Our inflation forecast for the NTM stands at 1.1%, of which ...

Electoral board calls for new municipal elections

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 17 Feb 2020

This afternoon, the Central Electoral Board formally convened new municipal elections for Sunday, March 15. The board indicated that they will be held exclusively with paper ballots. This helps to de-escalate tensions and the electoral crisis. The main political actors are clearly interested in t...

Municipal elections cancelled; electoral crisis unfolding

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 16 Feb 2020

This Sunday, the day when municipal elections were scheduled to be held, the unexpected happened: after 11am, the electoral board decided to cancel the elections. The decision was made due to the serious problems that affected the electronic voting system. The president of the electoral board ind...

Turkey and Russia argue over Syria

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Feb 2020

On February 15 Turkey claimed to be honoring its agreements to calm the situation in Syria. 13 Turkish soldiers were killed by the Syrian Army in fighting around Idlib in the last two weeks. Russia is Syria's firmest ally. Russia claims to be urging restraint on Syria. Turkey is occupying Syrian ...

Plan to massively increase Russian Arctic oil production

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Feb 2020

On February 11 Igor Sechin visited Putin. They discussed the Vostok oil project. Sechin has been one of Putin's closest friends for almost 30 years.Sechin manages Rosneft, which is state owned. He wants to pump oil out of the north Urals region and send it by pipeline to the Taymyr Peninsula on R...

Weekly highlights: Negative inflation y/y in Q1 will put pressure on MPC to act

ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Feb 2020

Highlights:Inflation in January came in at the low end of expectations. Inflation reached -0.4% and declined to 0.3% y/y from 0.6% in Dec.Core inflation also declined to 0.35% y/y from 0.64%.Headline inflation is expected to decline further in coming months: to 0.0% y/y in February and -0.3% y/y ...

Another critical two weeks

TURKEY · Report · 16 Feb 2020 · 1 response

Turkey is at war with the Syrian National Army in Idlib, with both sides swearing not to back off an inch. Only Putin can avert a bloody war, but he is very unlikely to act on behalf of Turkey, unless President Erdogan puts the threat of breaking up the relationship and returning the S-400 anti-m...