GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Two rating agencies and the IMF visited Panama at the beginning of the month. Fitch revised the outlook of the Republic to “negative” from “neutral”, concluding that public sector finances might weaken in the medium term, but the agency maintained its investment grade valuation for the Republic. ...

A strong ending, with many caveats

TURKEY · Report · 28 Feb 2020

Today’s GDP data showed that the Turkish economy expanded by a stronger than expected 6% in Q4, y/y, and some 1.9%, q/q. Together with some revisions to back data, this meant that the economy grew by 0.9% in 2019 as a whole. The key driver of annual growth in the fourth quarter from the expenditu...

Pressures build

VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Feb 2020

Back from his international tour, Juan Guaidó now faces the challenge of following up on the road map settled on with international allies with political action at home: step up pressures so that presidential and parliamentary elections are held this year and meet international standards as to po...

Virus and China’s demand for capital

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Feb 2020

China is introducing a series of measures to counter the downward effects of the virus on GDP growth. These policies will increase China’s demand for capital. We examine the expected sources of capital raise, domestically and internationally, and analyze what this means for the capacity of the st...

Turkey and Russia at daggers drawn

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Feb 2020

On February 27 a Syrian air strike killed 33 Turkish soldiers. The Turks are in Syria against the express wishes of the Syrians. The Syrians would presumably only have done this with the approval of the Russians who are their main allies.The Turks have moved thousands of more troops into Syria. R...

Revamp for Russia's ruling party

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Feb 2020

The United Russia Party is going to merge with another pro-Putin party the All Russian People's Front. This was reported in Meduza (a major Russian magazine) on February 26. Dmitry Medvedev, the former Prime Minister, will no longer be leader of United Russia due to his unpopularity. The new part...

Hunting in the zoo

COLOMBIA · Report · 27 Feb 2020

When it comes to surprise, the January press conference to present the revised fiscal outlook did not disappoint. It was announced that the 2019 deficit was 2.5% of GDP -- far below the ceiling imposed by the relevant External Committee, and down from 3% in 2018. That would have been good news, e...

Assessing the impact of the Rosneft Trading SA sanction

VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Feb 2020

The sanction imposed on Rosneft Trading SA (RTSA) puts 600 kbd of Venezuelan exports at risk (80 percent of total exports), impairing Venezuela’s ability to import much needed fuel and inputs for refineries and to service its debt to China. Pdvsa is seeking for new traders to replace RTSA but fur...

Coronavirus effects may soon be contained in China

CHINA · Report · 27 Feb 2020

The coronavirus outbreak that began in late January was one of the most severe exogenous shocks in China’s recent history, especially since it overlapped with the Chinese New Year holiday, which involves the largest population migration in human history. As of February 26th, some 80,428 cases had...

South Africa’s Budget 2020 makes substantial moves to reduce the bloated public sector wage bill

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Feb 2020

Our 2019 Budget report’s title indicated that tough decisions had been made while at the same time asking if it was enough, i.e., were the measures taken enough to improve South Africa’s fiscus or at least halt its deterioration. It’s a year later, and we all know it was not enough. Today Finance...

Russia to hold referendum

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Feb 2020

On February 26 Moscow announced that a referendum will be held on April 22 on constitutional reform. The people will be asked to approve enhanced powers for Parliament at the cost of the presidency. The government will make sure it gets the result that it wants from the electorate. The challenge ...

MNB: No measure, but a reworded statement issued yesterday

HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Feb 2020

In line with expectation, the Monetary Council announced no measure whatsoever after yesterday's rate-setting meeting. However, they issued a significantly reworded statement.Reading through the communiqué, one has the feeling that the Council simply met the likely expectation that a new situatio...

Fiscal reform’s painful birth depresses growth

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Feb 2020

Costa Rica’s 2019 economic evolution was marked by the fiscal problem, and the political environment surrounding it. In the reform and its entry into law in early December 2018, uncertainty about its implementation, and the willingness of the Executive to comply with it extended negative expectat...

Mid-Week Update

TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Feb 2020

I have not titled this Market Brief, because too many issues are on the agenda of the markets, which makes it very difficult to find a common threat to express in a brief headline. They are mostly negative. These are Idlib, Libya, Covid-19 CBRT head Uysal’s speech Bursa Joint Chambers of Industry...

Chile: Winter is coming

CHILE · In Brief · 25 Feb 2020

The phrase, made popular by the series Game of Thrones, relates to the call to be prepared for the hardships of winter. Although most of Chile is still enjoying warm summer temperatures, the beginning of March, associated with students returning to class, is a reminder that winter is indeed comin...