GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Poland is considering making it easier for Ukrainian to gain permanent residency. There are over a million Ukrainians legally resident in Poland. The languages of the two neighbors are very similar. The Polish proposal got mixed reactions in Ukraine. Many Ukrainians want to move somewhere where t...

China and the impossible trinity

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 07 Jan 2020

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Capital flight continues to be a major issue for Beijing, with the “Errors and omissions” account at an all-time high. • The central bank wants to maintain relatively easy monetary conditions as it tries to work its way through China’s debt burden, b...

The fiscal deficit reached 3.7% GDP in 2019

ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Jan 2020

The fiscal deficit in 2019 exceeded the planned deficit by 12bn ILS, due to a 9.2bn undershooting of revenues and a 2.8bn overshooting in spending. Expenditures of government ministries increased by 6.3% y/y, above the original planned budget of 5.1% growth in spending.Tax revenues were up 3.5% i...

Rate stability expected this week with a more neutral bias

ISRAEL · Report · 06 Jan 2020

GDP growth reached 3.3% in 2019 on strong domestic consumption and service exports. Growth in 2020 is expected to slow to 2.8% on weaker consumption due to a tighter fiscal position, offset by natural gas exports. Average wages are expanding by 2.5%-2.8% annual, supportive of PC demand and some m...

Rate stability expected on Thursday with a more neutral bias

ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Jan 2020

GDP growth in 2019 reached 3.3% (1.3% per capita)Drivers: Private consumption increased by 3.9%, public consumption 4.1% and service exports 9.0%.Weak growth: industrial exports up only 1.5%, and investments in fixed assets up only 0.3%.The public debt/GDP ratio is expected to decline in 2019 (be...

Belarus and Russia reach oil deal

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2020

On January 4 Belarus and Russia agreed to reopen Belarus' oil refineries. Belarus' state oil company Belneftkhim consented to renounce the supplier's premium that it has received on oil from Russia. Over 80% of Belarus' energy comes from Russia. Being cut off from this in midwinter would be very ...

The old EPP game is starting again

HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jan 2020

The European edition of Politico (politico.hu) wrote yesterday that according to an unnamed high-ranking representative of Fidesz, PM Orbán is seriously considering to pull Fidesz out of the European People's Party. A few days ago, a leading background figure in the Fidesz political family said o...

Turkey troop deployment in Libya irks Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jan 2020

On January 2 the Turkish Parliament voted to send troops to Libya to bolster the government there. This annoys Russia which is supporting the Libyan National Army under Khalifa Haftar. Turkey and Russia have co-operated fruitfully in Syria.

Outlook for the Gulf in 2020 (and review of 2019)

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Jan 2020

This report provides a summary of the key trends and events in the Gulf in 2019, including a review of some of our calls during the year, and outlines some of the key developments to watch for in 2020.

December inflation: stickiness continues

TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Jan 2020

Consumer prices rose by 0.7%, m/m, in December, slightly higher than the consensus of 0.5%, with the 12-month rate hence ending the year at 11.8%, up from 10.6% in November and 8.6% in October. Producer prices increased also by 0.7% in the month, m/m, with the 12-month PPI inflation thus rising t...

Eurasian Economic Union: FTAs to revitalize a stagnated project?

CIS POLITICS · Report · 31 Dec 2019

The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU or EEU) is the latest and most comprehensive of decades-long attempts to use economic interdependence in the Eurasian continent, to keep former Soviet Republics under the sphere of influence of Moscow. Today, the EEU is a limited Customs Union with a Common Exter...

Ending the year with optimism

INDONESIA · Report · 30 Dec 2019

In his speech during the Annual Bankers' Dinner recently hosted by Bank Indonesia, President Jokowi appeared confident that the Indonesian economy will remain resilient in the face of the slowdown of the global economy. At the same time, he emphasized the need to look for new resources to keep th...

Growth slowly recovers

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 30 Dec 2019

Preliminary figures indicate that economic activity has continued to slowly recover. The monthly indicator of economic activity for September and October estimated real GDP growth at 5.1% and 5.2%, respectively (to August, the monthly average was 4.7%). We expect that November and December figure...

How different could 2020 be?

PERU · Report · 27 Dec 2019

The electoral campaign to replace the dissolved Congress seems to have failed to gain momentum. The latest polls find that nearly half of voters haven’t decided who to vote for in the January 26th contest. While some surprises could emerge, the results will most probably favor President Martín Vi...

Gulf weekly: Khashoggi trial concludes, Divided Zone oil restart is agreed

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Dec 2019

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. As of today, we are shifting to a Friday publication schedule in an effort to provide swifter coverage than our previous Sunday schedule. Headlines include: * The tria...