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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

October inflation figures represent a moderate surprise on the upside
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Nov 2019

CPI-inflation for October came out today at 0.6% mom, 2.9% yoy, the latter up from 2.8% in the previous month. The analyst consensus for the yoy rate was in the range of 2.7-2.8%, and our forecast was 2.7%. This moderate negative surprise was mainly blamed on food prices (up 0.8% mom on the globa...

Misguided dollar indexation
VENEZUELA · Report · 08 Nov 2019

In October 2019, the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) officially instituted dollar indexation in three spheres: commercial credit offered by banks, penalties for reserve requirement non-compliance, and rates on central bank open market operations. The BCV’s policy is ineffective and unsustainable....

Lula’s release will intensify polarization
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Nov 2019

The release of former President Lula (PT), a consequence of the Federal Supreme Court’s decision to restrict arrests until all legal appeals are exhausted, will give the opposition, especially the PT, much-needed political breathing room. Lula has been incarcerated since April 7 of last year at t...

​Erdogan Trump summit: Last chance to prevent sanctions
TURKEY · In Brief · 08 Nov 2019

Important: Since both authors are traveling abroad this weekend, there will be no Weekly Report. Apologies. President Erdogan loudly protested the resolution by the House of Representatives condemning the so-called Armenian genocide, threatening to cancel his Washington visit. However, after rece...

Rumor that Russia will reduce share of USD in National Wealth Fund
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Nov 2019

On November 7 media stories appeared saying it is rumored that Russia will cut the share of USD in its sovereign reserves. An anonymous source in the Ministry of Finance was cited. The government is changing the fund's structure with a view to improving the pension system. Russia has been de-doll...

Loans to Russian corporates are falling
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Nov 2019

Figures released on November 7 show that lending to Russian corporates is down. This is surprising in view of the Central Bank reducing the interest rate on four occasions since June 2019. In June 2019 it was 7.75%. In October 2019 it was lowered to 6.5%The loan portfolio of the country is 3.5% o...

Cyprus revokes Cypriot citizenship from 9 Russians
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Nov 2019

On November 7 Cyprus removed citizenship from nine Russians who had obtained it through investment. Cyprus is in the process of removing it from around 20 more Russians. The Cypriot Government stated that its citizenship by investment scheme was problematic. Citizens of several other countries ha...

South Africa’s second Investment Conference - another rare win for the economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Nov 2019

Following last year’s inaugural Investment Conference initiated and headed by President Ramaphosa, South Africa’s second Investment Conference, dubbed “Accelerating economic growth by building partnerships” came to its conclusion today. The previous year’s Conference came on the back of the Presi...

Q319 GDP rises to 6.2%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 07 Nov 2019

After two disappointing quarters below 6%, GDP growth finally climbed to 6.2% in 3Q19. Accounting for the pick-up in growth were household spending, helped by lower inflation, public consumption and a significant acceleration in construction activity following government efforts to catch up on in...

Three-way presidential race in 2020 likely
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 06 Nov 2019

Three major coalitions will compete for the presidency in 2020: one led by PLD candidate Gonzalo Castillo; another by the PRM’s Luis Abinader; and a third by LFP, a new organization led by ex-president Leonel Fernández. The correlation of forces between these coalitions will depend upon three ...

US-Turkey rift is an opportunity for Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Nov 2019

On November 5 Turkey and Russia announced that they were conducting more joint patrols in Syria. Their armies, usually cagey, were very keen to release images of the patrol. This comes after the US House of Representatives vote to recognize the Armenian Genocide.The Turks are irate that the Unite...

South Africa finally making solid moves on ICT policy that will benefit the economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Nov 2019

Despite having the most advanced economy in Africa, South Africa’s ICT (Information and Communications Technology) sector lags behind its peers globally, and a large part of this can be attributed to policy. Country comparisons reveal that South Africa’s fixed broadband internet speeds are relati...

SAUDI: Aramco’s valuation and the IPO’s impact on bond issuance
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Nov 2019

​Information is trickling out about the Aramco IPO. Given the years of preparation and then the latest delay in October, it’s somewhat surprising that more wasn’t announced last Sunday. Our report includes an overview of valuations (a massive range from $1.1-2.3trn), the likely impact of the IPO ...

Governor Matolcsy on the euro
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Nov 2019

MNB governor György Matolcsy, who has appeared as quite active in terms of public appearances on a wide range of subjects lately, made some interesting comments on the euro the other day. In an opinion published by the Financial Times, under the title: 'We need to admit the euro was a mistake', h...

Polarization likely to remain intense and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Nov 2019

President Jair Bolsonaro will deliver a set of post-Pension Reform proposals to Congress. Pre-salt auctions take place on Wednesday. The Senate may vote on the Parallel Pension Reform proposal, which includes states and municipalities. On Thursday, the Federal Supreme Court resumes discussion on ...

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