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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Cabinet reshuffle unlikely to improve economic prospects
CHILE · Report · 25 Jun 2019

When President Sebastián Piñera took office in March 2018, consensus expectations for 2019 GDP growth stood at 3.7%, up from 3% a year before. But expectations have been sinking since September 2018. Central Bank forecasts have registered similar falling optimism. Is this the end of the Piñera ef...

​Istanbul elections: Wait until Wednesday
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Jun 2019 · 1 response

I had promised an update by Tuesday, which I shall defer to Wednesday.There are two reasons. First, Erdogan will meet the party caucus and administrative bodies today to assess election results. Secondly, there are a lot rumors I need to check for verification of accuracy. I hope there will be en...

Proposed changes to Pension Reform and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jun 2019 · 1 response

In the Lower House, we highlight the attempt to vote on the Pension Reform in the Special Committee. Before the vote, the rapporteur, Samuel Moreira (PSDB-SP), is expected to present changes to his report. The 2nd Group of the STF analyzes Lula’s habeas corpus request. Demonstrations in defense o...

Economics: Reallocations reflect shifting priorities
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jun 2019

By analyzing the budget cuts and reallocations, as well as what the administration is actually spending or failing to expend, we can get a clear indication of the course of public policy changes that might otherwise go undetected. In real percentage terms, the 2019 federal spending budget refl...

Politics: AMLO, the courts and the CSOs square off
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jun 2019

As the economy continues to sputter, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s government is running into more and more counterweights and political pushback, with each instance posing new legal obstacles for the government’s signature initiatives. Some of the problems must be regarded as self-inf...

South African politics: How the ANC and the South African government are intertwined
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Jun 2019

​South Africa’s African National Party (ANC) came into power during the country’s dawn of democracy in 1994. The ANC was a liberation movement. 1994 had marked the end of apartheid, with all eligible citizens of South Africa being able to vote for the first time, irrespective of race or gender. T...

Finally, the start of a monetary easing cycle
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jun 2019

At the last COPOM meeting, the Central Bank kept the SELIC rate at 6.5% but left the door open for a cut in July, which should happen with or without approval of the pension reform by that date. Although inflation accrued over the past 12 months is above the target, reaching 4.7% in May, this is ...

London-Shanghai stock connect latest openness step
CHINA · Report · 24 Jun 2019

Growth is experiencing downward pressure. Industrial output rose just 5% y/y in May, down 0.4 pps from April, a new low rate. Investment was up 4.4% y/y, down 1.3 pps from April. The fall in investment growth is mainly driven by falling state investment, which in turn was depressed by fiscal defi...

Macro fundamentals remain shekel supportive
ISRAEL · Report · 24 Jun 2019

Highlights: Residential completions increased sharply (18% q/q) in Q1 2019. - This is supportive of softer rental prices as inventory increases. - Housing starts declined in Q1 2019 but an upward revision is likely. Job vacancies have declined in recent months. - This is mo...

​Take 2: Imamoglu (CHP) sweeps Yildirim (AKP),opening a can of worms for everyone
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jun 2019

09:30 Istanbul time With some answers to the questions in my head pursuant to the astounding victory of Ekrem Imamoglu over Binali Yildirim, I decided to publish an update in the morning to serve our audience in Asia, Turkey and Europe, which is preliminary and will be updated—I assume—within 24 ...

​Imamoglu (CHP) sweeps Yildirim (AKP), opening a can of worms for everyone
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Jun 2019

It was over by 7:30 pm Istanbul time. Ekrem Imamoglu beat Binali Yildirim by a 54-45% margin, or a difference of 780K votes, delivering his party its first significant victory in a decade or so. In his acceptance speech Imamoglu sounded humble and conciliatory, promising to work for all citizens ...

Unrest in Georgia leads to flight ban by Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Jun 2019

On June 20 serious disturbances erupted in Georgia. A Russian politician named Sergei Gavrilov was invited to Georgia as part of an official Russian delegation. He was addressing a conference for Orthodox Christian countries. Some Georgians objected to the Russian politician's presence especially...

Putin's Direct Line shows concern over living standards
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jun 2019

On June 20 President Putin did his annual direct line. Anyone was able to call and question him. This has always transfixed the nation. The president fielded calls about Ivan Golunov. Golunov is the investigative journalist who was a victim of the police fabricating evidence against him. The pres...

A quick econ data update
TURKEY · Report · 21 Jun 2019

As we will not be publishing a weekly update this Sunday because of the elections, we are providing a quick rundown of the recent data releases today. As we noted in yesterday’s note, we shall update our audience on final election results on Monday. April Industrial Production Headline indust...

Hong Kong protests, the trade war and the Chinese leadership
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Jun 2019

The protests in Hong Kong and the failure thus far in the trade war may have a positive impact on China’s domestic economy and decision making. The Communist Party, and Xi Jinping, are more flexible than many observers give it credit, and small-scale economic reform and global integration may be ...

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