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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Detente in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jul 2019

The past week has seen a reduction in tensions in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Government and the pro-Russian rebels have agreed to pull back from the front line near Stanytsia Lushanska. This is in the Donbass Region. Ukraine has previously agreed to such pullbacks in other areas but such deals quickl...

June inflation at 2.7%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Jul 2019

The government today announced that the headline inflation rate fell from 3.2% in May to 2.7% in June, lower than what analysts expected (2.9%). Data show that lower rice and oil prices combined to pull down the June inflation rate. Following the rice tariffication law liberalizing rice trade, pr...

Pension Reform: Record of votes in the Special Committee
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Jul 2019

With 36 votes in favor of the reform and 13 against it, the Special Committee in the Lower House approved Deputy Samuel Moreira’s Pension Reform proposal. If the Special Committee finishes this week, the first round of voting is expected to take place before the parliamentary recess, which begins...

Distribution of EU positions: the worst has been avoided, but that is all
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jul 2019

Looking at the results of the recent days' horse-trading around leading EU positions, one might easily have the impression that, from the Hungarian government's perspective , the worst of the potential outcomes has been avoided but the whole process was no great success at all.Of course, the star...

Russia persuades OPEC to cut production
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jul 2019

On July 1 OPEC + decided to prolong its production cut. The reduced production agreement will now last 9 months into 2020.At the G20 meeting in Osaka, Japan the Russian Government declared its intention to reduce oil production.Since December 2016 Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed production cu...

Ruling PLD at the breaking point
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 03 Jul 2019

The ruling PLD’s political crisis is so severe that the party is on the brink of a split, a situation affecting the whole country. The conflict stems former President Leonel Fernández’s pursuit of the presidential nomination, while President Danilo Medina wants, at any cost, to prevent him from w...

Inflation drops sharply, mostly on food
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2019 · 2 responses

Consumer prices were almost unchanged in June, m/m (0.03%), which was a slightly better print than the consensus -- of 0.1%-0.2% increase. The 12-month CPI-inflation thus fell quite sharply to 15.7% from 18.7% in May. Likewise, the 12-month D-PPI inflation dropped to 25% from 28.7%, with the spre...

A dismal legislature
COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Jul 2019

A new political battleground has emerged, due to President Iván Duque’s plan to resume aerial spreading of the herbicide glyphosate over coca plantations. The peace agreement signed with the FARC mandated manual eradication -- quite a controversial issue, as those coca-growing regions typically l...

Public Sector Deficit is expected to be higher than the legal limit by the end of the year (and next)
PANAMA · In Brief · 02 Jul 2019

Héctor Alexander, new Minister of MEF beginning July 1, stated last week that that the real situation of the public finances may be worse than the figures submitted by the Varela Administration, because of the -so far- unknown amount of accounts payable to contractors and suppliers. His estimatio...

Economics: June news points to further slowing
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2019

Buffeted signs of a global slowdown, continuing trade pressures, and not an insignificant number of unforced errors on the part of the government, economic news during June offered further evidence that the Mexican economy continues to lose steam. Aggregate demand grew a scant 0.1% during the f...

Politics: Initial cracks in support for AMLO
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2019

Halfway through 2019 and seven months into his presidency, Andrés Manuel López is facing a contradictory situation. He maintains high approval levels on the strength of his immense personal popularity. In the latest quarterly GEA-ISA survey of registered voters based on interviews conducted in mi...

The vote on Pension Reform and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jul 2019 · 1 response

The vote in the Lower House on Samuel Moreira’s (PSDB-SP) Pension Reform report to conclude on Wednesday or Thursday. Rodrigo Maia, speaker of the House, looks for a deal with leaders, governors and mayors to include states and municipalities in the proposal. State secretaries discuss Tax Reform ...

Challenges ahead
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Jul 2019

Government-opposition talks continue, a sign that all sides prefer a negotiated solution. The ongoing stalemate is catastrophic, and there are no other alternatives in sight to solve the crisis. Both parties have incentives to negotiate and are being pushed to do so by their respective internatio...

With Widodo’s confirmation, the economic future looks bright
INDONESIA · Report · 01 Jul 2019 · 1 response

Indonesia’s Constitutional Court finally decided to declare an electoral victory for incumbent President Joko Widodo and his running mate Ma’ruf Amien, in the wake of the contested April 17th presidential election. With that decision, Widodo will be allowed to continue leading the country for a s...

The inflation report and the start of monetary easing
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jul 2019

​Neither the minutes of the last COPOM meeting nor the latest Inflation Report is explicit about the start of monetary easing. This is understandable, since the Central Bank has an obligation to proceed cautiously, and the two documents call attention to the risk of frustration regarding approval...

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