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Rethinking regional strategy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 08 Oct 2018

Regional elections outcomes in September 2018 came as an unpleasant surprise to the Kremlin after many years of tight control. All the federal entities that got to the second tour of the governors’ elections have either resulted in a loss for the Kremlin-backed candidate or the outcome is still u...

COSTA RICA: Fiscal Reform Bill advances in congress
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 08 Oct 2018 · 1 response

Despite the turbulence of a widespread strike called since September 10th by several public sector unions, demanding the withdrawal of the fiscal reform bill, the Congress continued its discussion and approved it, by a 35-22 vote, in the first reading on Friday October 5th, 2018. The legislative ...

Yoy consumer inflation likely to rise temporarily in September
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Oct 2018

KSH is scheduled to put out its CPI-inflation data for September at 9am Budapest time tomorrow. We expect the yoy headline rate to rise further, to 3.6% from August's 3.4%. This forecast is based essentially on three factors:(1) a likely 1.4% mom rise by fuel prices, on the back of a 1.5% mom inc...

Choppy waters ahead...
TURKEY · Report · 07 Oct 2018 · 1 response

The recent relative improvement in market sentiment has shown the importance of improving relations with the US, and of orthodox economic policies, as manifested by CBRT’s September rate hike. But further progress is between the lips of President Erdogan, who reveals little sign of conduct change...

International actors will be key
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 Oct 2018

With the Venezuelan crisis spilling across its borders, pressure on the Maduro regime is coming from all directions: sanctions, formal diplomatic actions, critical reports from multilateral agencies, and tough rhetoric from the United States. Venezuela was high on the list of concerns of the usua...

Political Overview: Beneath and beyond the waning “Ramaphoria”
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Oct 2018

​This is a Special Report on South Africa by Dr. Mzukisi Qobo, formerly Chief Director of Trade Policy at the Department of Trade and Industry. In the past eight months, South Africa has experienced a slight change in the tone of policy. A number of moderate reforms have been carried out, incl...

Inflation rises; more policy tightening expected
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Oct 2018

The headline inflation rate continued to rise, reaching 6.7% in September from 6.4% in August. The uptrend reflects a high 0.9% month-on-month inflation rate, which may be traced to higher prices of food, particularly rice, meat, fish and vegetables, and fuel-related costs, including transportati...

Bolsonaro wave interrupted in SP and MG
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Oct 2018

The last four electoral polls conducted by Ibope in São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, the most populous states in the country, show that the pro-Bolsonaro wave has plateaued. Comparing yesterday’s poll (October 3) with Monday’s poll, Bolsonaro only continued to grow in Rio de Janeiro, w...

China’s Belt and Road: Debt trap – for China?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Oct 2018

I spent three days at the end of September in the city of Astana in Kazakhstan, at a conference that was part of a larger effort by Nazarbayev University to create a China Centre. Kazakhstan is feeling pressure due to its location between China and Russia and is seeking greater depth of knowledge...

Bolsonaro vs. Haddad contest practically certain
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Oct 2018

The Ibope poll released yesterday, October 3, reinforces the idea that the presidential race will most likely be decided in a runoff round between Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) and Fernando Haddad (PT). Compared to Monday’s Ibope poll, the candidates oscillated within the 2-percentage point margin of erro...

Will the revised new Mining Charter spur more investment in mining?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 03 Oct 2018

Echoing President Ramaphosa’s statement during his delivery of the economic stimulus package on September 21, Mineral Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe argued that with the new Mining Charter 2018, gazetted on September 27, the government aims to create more regulatory certainty in the sector. In...

Bolsonaro vs. Haddad contest consolidated
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Oct 2018

In the Datafolha poll released yesterday, October 2, Jair Bolsonaro expanded his lead over Fernando Haddad (PT) to 11 points. The other candidates remained stable. The result confirms the data presented by Ibope on October 1 and shows that the Bolsonaro vs. Haddad runoff round scenario is an incr...

September inflation: Ugly numbers
TURKEY · Report · 03 Oct 2018

September CPI-inflation came in at a much higher than expected 6.3%, m/m (consensus: 3.6%), raising the 12-month rate sharply higher to 24.5%, from 17.9% in August, while the increase in producer prices, at 10.9% in the month, was even steeper, with the 12-month rate rising to a whopping 46.2%, f...

Good news and bad news about fiscal policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Oct 2018

There seems to be indeed some excitement about the end-2018 government debt ratio, judged by the flow of recent announcements by high-ranking officials, and also the data work carried out by the statistical office (KSH).To start with, the KSH revised its historical GDP numbers upwards the other d...

Is rising household debt helping China to rebalance?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 02 Oct 2018 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * It is not meaningful to refer to a rebalancing of the Chinese economy if the growth in the consumption share of GDP is powered by rising household debt. The goal of rebalancing is to allow China to grow without a worsening of the country’s debt burden...

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