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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​Post-Eid update
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Jun 2019

Friday isstill administrative holiday in Turkey, but markets will be open, hence I wanted to update our readers on three matters of import. While the focus of investors may be on S-400s and to a lesser extent on Istanbul elections, it is important to begin with the growing humanitarian crisis in ...

South Africa’s current account deficit widens in the first quarter of 2019 as export volumes drop
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Jun 2019

Yet more unsavory economic numbers have emerged this week (i.e., following the announced contraction of Q1 2019 GDP by 3.2%) as data released today indicates that South Africa’s current account is in worse shape than it was at the end of 2018. The deficit of the current account of the balance of ...

Ukrainian President meets EU leaders
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jun 2019

On June 4 and 5 President Zelensky of Ukraine met EU and NATO leaders in Brussels. He was speaking about the long term goal of EU membership. His defeated presidential rival Poroshenko also shares this goal. There are legislative elections this fall so both are setting out their stall. Zelensky's...

Life for Mexico becomes tough again, courtesy of Mr Trump.
MEXICO · In Brief · 05 Jun 2019

In one of his classic harsh remarks, President Trump announced last Thursday he intends to impose an overall import tariff to Mexican products (notwithstanding on the same day he sent the USMCA for discussion and eventual approval of US Congress). The tariff calendar would start with a general ra...

Enter Norway
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 Jun 2019

Government and opposition delegations met in Oslo on 27-28 May 2019 in a new attempt to find a solution to the crisis, this time with the Norwegian government as mediator. The story repeats itself: negotiation appears on the scene after an episode in which neither party could impose itself on the...

Surprise, surprise: the draft budget for 2020 aims at a fiscal deficit of 1% of GDP only
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Jun 2019 · 1 response

Finance minister Varga delivered the draft budget for 2020 to the president of the National Assembly (the parliament) yesterday. Surprisingly, the draft aims at a general government deficit of 1% of GDP only. This is despite the fact that in the government's annual convergence report, out in late...

South Africa’s first quarter GDP contracts for the fourth time in a row ‒ a deep contraction, too
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Jun 2019 · 1 response

Despite our expectations of a GDP contraction during the first quarter of 2019, it was still disappointing when results released by Statistics South Africa today confirmed that indeed GDP had a much deeper contraction than expected at -3.2% following 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2018. This was t...

CBR concerned by company debt
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jun 2019

The Central Bank of Russia has voiced its anxiety in its review of financial risks over increasing debt in several major companies. This poses a danger to Russian banking. Companies are spending an average of 10% servicing debt. In 2015 it was 10.4% and when sanctions and low oil prices hit the m...

Firm data in Jan-Mar 2019
INDIA · Report · 04 Jun 2019

After a long wait, we have four quarters of relatively good performance by the large listed companies, for the period ended Jan-Mar 2019. The four quarters had nominal net sales growth and nominal operating profit growth of about 10% or more. Net profit has bounced back from the abysmal performan...

Political tango or political tangle?
ARGENTINA · Report · 04 Jun 2019 · 2 responses

In this report, we review the current political discussions ahead of the presidential elections. We consider this essential to better understand the economic implications of the current political moves and countermoves. As we move closer to June 12 (the deadline for the recognition of politica...

Standoff over presidential race must end in July
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 04 Jun 2019

Growth remained strong in Q1, with the IMAE estimating GDP growth at 5.7%, compared with Q1 2018. Inflation accelerated in March and April, by 0.65% and 0.53%, respectively. But at the close of Q1, accumulated 2019 inflation since January reached 0.86% q/q, and was up 1.47% y/y. These figures are...

The importance of the approval of PM 871
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Jun 2019

As we expected, on Monday night, June 3, the Senate approved Provisional Measure 871/19, which intends to fight fraud in INSS benefits and modifies the rules for the concession of rural retirement. Savings from the measure are estimated at R$ 9.8 billion over 12 months. Approval brings with it so...

Monetary tightening is happening at last, slowly, slowly
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jun 2019 · 1 response

The MNB held the stock of its FX swaps unchanged at HUF1725bn yesterday. This was the third weekly tender in a row that the swap stock did not change, following the previous one-and-a-half months of steep reduction.The fact that the reduction of the FX swap stock has been stopped does not mean in...

Pension Reform: First round vote possible before recess
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Jun 2019

The Senate votes on PM 871/19, which attempts to reduce fraud in the INSS, generating R$ 10 billion in savings. In the Lower House, the measure that changes the procedures for provisional measures may be voted upon. The Federal Supreme Court decides on the need for legislative authorization for p...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Jun 2019 · 1 response

Some signs of good sense have started to appear on the political stage. Although it is too soon for celebrations, we hope the recent improvement is not just a series of random events, but instead reflects some learning by the actors involved. The retraction (0.2%) of GDP in the first quarter, wit...

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