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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Will RBI defend the rupee?
INDIA · In Brief · 12 Sep 2018

The Indian rupee has depreciated sharply in the first week of September. Since 3rd September 2018 it has been the fastest depreciating currency in Asia.There seem to be three key factors at play. First, EM currencies are under pressure. Second, India is a large oil importer and global oil prices ...

An enormous inflationary shock
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Sep 2018

The measures announced on 17 August by president Maduro created turmoil, on top of the enactment of monetary reconversion and increases in regulated prices, and contributed to an upsurge in inflation well above the already worrying acceleration we predicted for the month. Its direct impact will b...

IMF arrives, as election prospects turn murky
UKRAINE · Report · 11 Sep 2018

The IMF remains the key to many issues in Ukraine. News of the September 6th arrival of its mission signaled that a deal had been reached with Ukrainian authorities. On August 29th, however, the Cabinet extended existing residential gas rates for another month, which confused observers. We remain...

Beto Richa arrest and Palocci revelations hurt the PSDB and the PT
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Sep 2018

Two new facts are creating additional wear on the PSDB and PT in the race just as Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) and Fernando Haddad (PT) are in an intense contest with their adversaries to secure a spot in the runoff round. On Tuesday morning, September 11, the former governor of Paraná and candidate fo...

Datafolha: Bolsonaro leads; Ciro, Marina, Alckmin and Haddad fight for second
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Sep 2018

The poll released yesterday, September 10, by Datafolha after ten days of electoral ads on radio and TV and the first poll conducted after the stabbing of candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) shows that Bolsonaro continues to consolidate his vote, and at this time is the closest to securing a spot in t...

Much ado about (almost) nothing
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 10 Sep 2018

According to the government, Exchange Agreement 1 dated September 7, 2018 brings free convertibility, a market-determined single floating exchange rate, and legal security in forex matters. But very little has changed. There is no free convertibility. Forex can only be traded through authorized e...

Q&A on the impact of the Bolsonaro attack and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Sep 2018

The week begins with questions regarding the recovery of presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL). Polls released throughout the week should capture the impact of the knife attack he suffered last Thursday, September 6. Fernando Haddad will officially become the candidate of the PT. Minister D...

A climate of uncertainty leading to opposite scenarios
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Sep 2018

Brazil is in the midst of a fiscal crisis that is still in latent state, and may or may not become an open crisis. In October a new president will be elected, and it is not known on what diagnosis the next government will base its economic policy actions, or if there will be sufficient congressio...

Economics: Slowing apparent in the latest GDP sectoral results
MEXICO · Report · 10 Sep 2018

The weakness of GDP during the second quarter was largely due to slackened growth in manufacturing and construction and the long-term trend toward a substantial erosion of Mexico’s oil and gas platform. Despite the United States’ imposition of import taxes on Mexican-made steel products, the ...

BTG Pactual presidential poll
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Sep 2018

A BTG Pactual poll conducted after the Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) stabbing was recently released. The poll was contracted by FSB/BTG Pactual and was conducted on September 8-9. This report analyzes the main results.

Weakness of gross fixed capital formation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Sep 2018

The decline of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) was the factor that caused the greatest disappointment in the announcement of the GDP numbers for the second quarter. Based on our monthly indicator of GFCF, it is clear that part of that result was due to the truckers’ strike. However, not only...

Crisis management
ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Sep 2018

These days, Macri´s administration has faced its second significant market run against the peso since the devaluation in May, which forced it to accelerate its macroeconomic convergence plan. This comprises reversing the excessive debt levels of the Central Bank and improving the poor fiscal outl...

MNB expects CPI-inflation to have peaked at 3.4% in July
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Sep 2018

Tomorrow at 9am BUD time, the KSH will come forward with its August CPI-inflation data. Analysts expect 3.3% yoy, slightly down from the 3.4% actual measured for July. The MNB previously predicted the same outcome, somewhat ambitiously adding that the yoy headline rate may have actually peaked in...

Growth loses momentum, as expected
TURKEY · Report · 10 Sep 2018

The Turkish economy grew by 5.2%, y/y, and 0.9%, q/q, in the second quarter of 2018, broadly in line with expectations, which corresponds to a noticeable slowdown over the previous quarter – from Q1's (downwardly-revised) 7.3% and 1.5% growth rates, respectively. On the expenditure side, the m...

AKP's education by fire
TURKEY · Report · 09 Sep 2018

Skirmishes and preemptive air raids started in the Idlib Province, where more than 3.5 million Syrians wait in fear of an Assad campaign. The tri-partite Summit in Tehran failed to find a peaceful solution to the approaching human tragedy, as Russia and Iran rejected Turkey’s proposal of a truce....

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