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PT may replace Lula with Fernando Haddad
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Sep 2018

After a decision from the Superior Electoral Court, the PT may replace Lula with Fernando Haddad as the party’s presidential candidate. The Lower House and Senate hold a “concentrated effort .The elections and holiday (September 7) may interfere with legislative work. In the Supreme Court, conti...

The longest and deepest cycle in Brazil’s history
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Sep 2018

The GDP result for the second quarter reinforces our projection that the economy will only grow by 1.0% in 2018. However, the second-quarter performance cannot be attributed wholly to the truckers’ strike. It unquestionably played a role, but the most recent numbers confirm that after the effects...

Why is the economy in a significant slowdown?... and what to we expect in the short term
PANAMA · Forecast · 03 Sep 2018

Our growth projections for 2018 (3.8%) are lower than what international analysts have argue. ECLAC projects 5.2% growth for the year despite a month-long labor strike in the construction sector from mid-April to mid-May (construction represents almost twenty percent of GDP). IMF is not so optimi...

A fresh debate over GDP measurement, and historical growth
INDIA · Report · 03 Sep 2018

The GDP measurement debate was reignited by a government committee that proposed a historical (“back”) series that accentuated the superiority of GDP growth during the 10 years of the UPA, compared with the four years of the present government. Many economists mechanically interpret GDP data, ...

Beijing has its back to the wall
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Sep 2018

Visiting Beijing nowadays is like marching into a former war zone where the mines have not been removed. It’s not clear how many there are or where they are located but everyone is fearful they are out there somewhere. Financial regulators, foreign diplomats, corporates and private citizens are s...

Inflation nears 18%, the CBRT says I’ll “adjust”
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Sep 2018

Consumer prices rose by a somewhat higher than expected 2.3% in August, m/m, taking the 12-month rate to just under 18% (from 15.8% in July), while producer prices surged by a massive 6.6% in the month, with the 12-month rate rising to 32.1%, from 25% in July (Graph 1; Table 1). Needless to say, ...

Lula cannot run for president
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2018

​The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) has just rejected the registration of former president Lula as a presidential candidate.Lula’s defense team can appeal, but the decision remains.Even if the defense team appeals to the TSE itself or the Supreme Court, the Electoral Court’s decision is remains e...

Racing against time
TURKEY · Report · 02 Sep 2018

As autumn sets in, Turkey is under unprecedented pressure from markets and erstwhile ally US. Later in September, Assad’s attack on Syrian border province Idlib could create a new set of headaches for the country. President Erdogan and his administration are reacting to the pressure by announcing...

DataPoder360 Poll: The presidential race is still unpredictable
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Aug 2018

The telephone poll released today, August 30, by DataPoder360 confirms the strength of Lulismo and Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) as the leaders of the presidential race at this time, just before the beginning of the airing of electoral ads on radio and TV. Their strength can be explained by their narrativ...

The race towards 2020 elections already started; Fernández pulled ahead
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 30 Aug 2018

Although others had formally launched their pre-campaign activities aimed at getting the PLD nomination for the presidency, the rally staged by former President Leonel Fernández to inaugurate his pre-campaign was the one that marked the beginning of the race to the 2020 presidential election. He ...

Positive comment from Moody's on the MNB's new prudential rules for mortgage lending
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Aug 2018

In a recent report on the vulnerability of emerging economies in the light of financial market corrections, Moody's made some praising comments regarding the MNB new prudential rules for banks' mortgage lending, which were out a few days ago and will take effect in October 2018. According to thes...

GUATEMALA: In a poverty trap
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Aug 2018

Our revised 2018-2019 outlook for Guatemala has the same characteristics as our outlook of last March: Slow growth, relatively low inflation and depreciation, a moderate fiscal deficit, government debt below 25% of nominal GDP and monetary control. The outlook calls for GDP growth of 2.8% to 3....

Economics: More studies needed for the Maya Train
MEXICO · Report · 28 Aug 2018

The Maya Train project that Andrés Manuel López Obrador promised during the campaign and has since greatly expanded would pass through five states in Mexico’s southeast: Yucatán, Quintana Roo, Chiapas, Tabasco and Campeche. It is being projected primarily as a way to encourage more tourists to ve...

Mexico and US finally reach a bilateral trade agreement
MEXICO · In Brief · 28 Aug 2018

After more than one year of hard discussions and uncertainty about trade relations, Mexico and the US announced yesterday a preliminary trade agreement that modernizes NAFTA. The main issues that stalled negotiations in the past few weeks were resolved. Even though details have not yet been revea...

Politics: Wither the Education Reform?
MEXICO · Report · 27 Aug 2018

The sweeping changes to education laws that constituted the first in a series of structural reforms passed during the first half of President Enrique Peña’s administration introduced major changes into the entire system, beginning with a constitutional guarantee that all Mexicans have a right to ...

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