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Russia ruling party setback
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 22 Oct 2018

Rosy economic news for Russia but the ruling party suffers setbacks. Russia is keen to end the Syrian conflict soon. Uzbekistan launches a charm offensive in India and France.

Politics: AMLO’s emerging legislative agenda
MEXICO · Report · 22 Oct 2018 · 1 response

In the almost 50 days of the new legislative session, activity has been intense, including the explanation and defense of President Enrique Peña Nieto’s final State of the Nation report by his cabinet ministers and the installation of the legislative commissions. But only one bill has been approv...

Will South Africa’s upcoming mini budget please Moody’s?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Oct 2018

Moody’s rating agency, the only one of the main three that still has South Africa’s credit under investment grading (Baa3 with a stable outlook), indicated a few weeks ago that it is not likely to downgrade the country during its next review. Despite this somewhat assuring statement, Moody’s stil...

Economic activity still recovering slowly
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Oct 2018

​Despite the positive surprise of the IBC-Br, indicating growth in the third quarter of 1.5%, the recovery trend is still sluggish. The result of the IBC-Br was influenced mainly by the service sector, where real revenue expanded by 1.2% in August, and by real retail sales, whose increase may hav...

Housing demand improves, but prices decline slightly
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Oct 2018

Despite a slight upward inflation surprise in September, core inflation remained stable at 0.8% m/m. We expect inflation to reach 0.9% NTM, assuming a slightly weaker shekel, wage pressures’ pushing service prices higher (mostly rentals), and stable oil prices. Despite a modest pickup in housing...

​US withdraws from INF agreement with Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Oct 2018

President Trump announced on October 20 the US will withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate-range (500-5500 km) Nuclear Forces treaty, also known as INF. The US blames Russia for violating the treaty by developing a ground-launched cruise missile called Novator 9M729. The National Security Council sa...

Diplomatic gains, domestic troubles
TURKEY · Report · 21 Oct 2018

After a successful Pompeo visit to Ankara, odds for improvement in the Turko-American relations, albeit temporary and transactional, appear much higher. The sides will agree to defer thorny issues to 2019, while Ankara will receive some slack on Iran sanctions and Halkbank in return for a promise...

New stand-by arrangement
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Oct 2018

Immediately after gas prices’ increase the IMF reported about staff level agreement on a new 14-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). The new program opens access to near $3.9 billion loan. Approval of a government budget for 2019 consistent with IMF staff recommendations is a precondition to have th...

Finally… the Cabinet increased gas prices
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Oct 2018

I never imagined that I would be glad to learn about my heating bill growing by almost ¼. But that’s what is happening. The Cabinet decision about a 23.5% gas price increase from October 1 was long-awaited and it’s a signal that the IMF deal is on its way. Approval of budget 2019 still on the lis...

China bank survey: The return of shadow banking
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 Oct 2018

Beijing is returning to stimulus to prevent a decline of GDP at a time of the threat from the Trade War. We see this growth in lending, both on and off balance sheet, in our October bank survey. One policy that has been surprisingly effective is the increase in lending to small businesses, a key ...

Bolsonaro’s lead is practically irreversible; only a new fact could change the scenario
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Oct 2018

The new Datafolha poll on the second round of the presidential race shows that, considering only valid votes, Jair Bolsonaro’s (PSL) lead over Fernando Haddad (PT) grew from 16 to 18 percentage points since last week.

The South African economy struggles to launch
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 18 Oct 2018

Summary and Assumptions • South Africa’s growth: South Africa is in a technical recession. This is the result of two consecutive quarterly contractions in the country’s gross domestic product during H1 2018. President Ramaphosa presented the country’s economic stimulus package during end-Septemb...

Higher growth, more employment means higher non-fuel inflation
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Oct 2018

GDP growth is still likely to decelerate from its recent cyclical peak between now and end-2020, but we see now higher growth rates for the next two years than we did three months ago, something similar to the current forecast from the MNB. This revision is based on the rather strong and probably...

Argentina Conference Call : On the road to stability?
ARGENTINA · Report · 18 Oct 2018

​Will the record IMF package and the new monetary policy be sufficient to stabilize the peso and Argentina's debt markets over the medium term? How will the current turbulence impact the 2019 elections?​

A small firm default that says something more
INDIA · In Brief · 17 Oct 2018

In our previous report, of 15 October, we had said: Deleveraging at NBFCs has adverse effects upon the real economy, particularly in areas where NBFCs were important, such as real estate and micro-finance. The stock market drama of 17 October turned out to be about a default by a real estate comp...

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