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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Bracing for an Anemic 2017
COLOMBIA · Report · 21 Aug 2017 · 1 response

Growth projections of above 2% for 2017 now look rather remote, given Q2 results. Economic activity expanded by just 1.3%, similar to in Q1. H2 growth would have to top 3% for GDP to grow by the 2% the government forecasts, which now seems unlikely. This will probably lead to renewed congressiona...

The General Government Reached a Surplus in H1 2017
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Aug 2017

Robust economic growth continued in Q2, with GDP growth just marginally weaker than in Q1. The leading source of strength remains an uninterrupted recovery of manufacturing and construction output. In addition, retail trade is slowly gaining momentum again, and tourist services are picking up at ...

Bond Default Recaps: Recapitalization Patterns
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 18 Aug 2017

As the economy slows and bad debt increases, the outcome of the current round of defaults, along with related programs like the debt-for-equity swaps, tell us a lot about what China will do and not just what it says it will do. We believe this initial pool of defaults provides a clue to how the s...

2Q17 GDP growth: As expected
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Aug 2017

Government announced today that the domestic economy grew 6.5% in 2Q17, behind China’s 6.9% growth clip but ahead of Vietnam’s (6.2%) and Indonesia’s (5%). As forecasted in our past quarterly reports, private consumption and investments continued to slow but growth rates were generally solid, wit...

Q2 GDP data shows continued robust growth, with some confusion caused among analysts
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Aug 2017

Real GDP growth for Q2 was reported at 3.6% yoy on sda basis, just slightly down from 3.8% in Q1, this morning. This was above the otherwise nicely accelerating 2.2% yoy growth recorded in the Euro Area, but lower than the yoy growth figures reported for most of those other EU members in the CEE ...

Fiscal policy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Aug 2017

The government announced on August 15 the new fiscal targets for 2017 (from a deficit of R$ 139 billion to R$ 159 billion) and 2018 (from R$ 129 billion to R$ 159 billion), in addition to measures that aim to reduce spending, including the postponement (for one year) of salary increases for civil...

Same Old Same Old
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 15 Aug 2017

The President’s second State of the Nation Address (SONA) in July suggests that year 2 of the Duterte Administration will be much like year 1. Our central growth scenario of 6.5% in 2017 and 6.3% in 2018 is unchanged from our last report, although we now expect greater contribution from exports ...

Week of August 14
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Aug 2017

The government is expected to announce the new fiscal targets for 2017 and 2018, aside from a set of measures to contain spending on civil servants. In the Lower House, we highlight the analysis of Political Reform. Even without an agreement, the provisional measure that deals with Refis was incl...

​A better than expected tie with improved political outlook
ARGENTINA · Report · 14 Aug 2017

Cambiemos (Macri’s governing coalition) managed a somewhat better than expected result in the primary election for senator in the province of Buenos Aires. This is quite an achievement considering that the relatively unknown Esteban Bullrich competed against political heavy weights such as Cristi...

Monetizing debt does not relieve China’s debt burden
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 14 Aug 2017 · 3 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: • China’s GDP was 11.4 percent greater in the first half of 2017 than it was in the first half of 2016, and 6.9 percent greater at comparable prices, implying a GDP deflator of 4.2 percent. This is broadly in line with the prime lending rate for banks ...

Economics: EM Outlook Firms, but Trouble Lurks
MEXICO · Report · 14 Aug 2017 · 2 responses

The election of a new US president in November initially had a markedly adverse effect on most emerging economies, which had already been rocked by two years of depressed commodity prices, sluggish-to-negative growth and stressed public finances. Mexico was among the hardest hit countries as W...

Revisiting foreign exchange flows and stocks
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Aug 2017 · 2 responses

Financial tensions are on the rise. This year's forex cash flow deficit seems manageable, owing to sharp import cuts, but downside risks prevail. Pdvsa’s output declines and prices are volatile. Access to new funds in the international financial markets becomes increasingly difficult, the risk of...

Falling Inflation and Continuation of Monetary Easing
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Aug 2017

The increase of 0.24% in the June IPCA exceeded the market consensus by 6 basis points, but the rise was all explained by the change in the electricity rate flag (from green to yellow) and the increase in the tax on fuels. All the same, inflation over the previous 12 months through August was onl...

No miracles
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 11 Aug 2017

The Russian leadership was extremely disappointed with the recent turn of the US–Russia relations. Despite a productive presidential meeting, the congressional decision to increase sanctions was clear evidence of no positive change to be expected any time soon. That came as a shock and insult to ...

Politics: BOF Efforts Intensify, But Pitfalls Remain
MEXICO · Report · 11 Aug 2017

As the incumbent PRI considers new ground rules for its presidential selection process, and that of Morena was always a foregone conclusion, PAN and PRD leaders have been stepping up efforts to establish what they have billed as a Broad Opposition Front (BOF) that could involve other political pa...

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