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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

State of the Nation Address, Year 2
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 24 Jul 2017

The President's speech today leaves little doubt that package 1 of the comprehensive tax reform proposal, which the lower house approved in late May, will also hurdle Senate review. With Senators squirming in their seats, the President stressed that he wants passage "in full", presumably referrin...

Economics: The Pros and Cons of SAR at 20
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jul 2017

The country’s the Retirement Savings System (SAR), which is based on personalized savings accounts, turned 20 this month and it has quite a number of accomplishments worth celebrating. SAR system advantages include the way its individual accounts afford greater transparency in resource availabili...

Politics: A System that Remains Broken
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jul 2017

The handling by the national electoral authority of the most recent elections, especially those of Coahuila and the State of Mexico, provides ample evidence of the gravest problems plaguing electoral democracy in Mexico: ignoring campaign spending limits, the willingness of all political parties ...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jul 2017

Turkey’s habit of arresting people suspected of anti-government activity at the slightest doubt has exhausted the patience of Germany, which now has three of its citizens in prison. Berlin threatens economic and political sanctions, a new low in Turko-EU relations. We predict with 75% odds that t...

The SARB Implements its First Rate Cut Following an End to its Tightening Cycle
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Jul 2017

The South African Reserve Bank’s MPC announced a 25 basis point cut from 7% (the rate that prevailed since March 2016) to 6.75%, effective from July 21. The Reserve Bank MPC’s decision to cut interest rates came in the wake of the latest inflation figures showing that headline CPI for June ca...

Renegotiation of NAFTA: Positive Signs, but Caution is Recommended
MEXICO · Report · 20 Jul 2017

The “Summary of Objectives for the NAFTA Renegotiation” published by the U.S Government was in general well received by Mexican editorialists as well as financial markets. The document confirms the US goal to “maintain existing reciprocal duty-free market access… for goods and services”. Here ...

HEADS UP: A new conflict brewing up between Turkey and Germany
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Jul 2017

The Germany Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Sigmar Gabriel stated—according to Deutsche Welle- that "We want Turkey to be a part of the West, or at least remain in its current position, but it takes two to tango," Sigmar Gabriel at a press conference in Berlin. "I cannot make out any willingness...

Economics: State Debt Monitor Falls Short
MEXICO · Report · 19 Jul 2017

The Ministry of Finance has published its “Alert System” of state government debt, as well as the indicators on which its new color coded alerts are based, which in this inaugural edition corresponded to readings of subnational government finance for year-end 2016. The system ranked one state ...

Politics: Hurdles to a Broad Opposition Front
MEXICO · Report · 19 Jul 2017

The national leaderships of the PAN and PRD continue to press for a broad opposition front for next year’s elections after seeing, yet again, that the PRI’s electoral victories in June were made possible by opposition parties' competing against one another in crucial gubernatorial contests. P...

Tight cash flow in the months ahead
VENEZUELA · Report · 19 Jul 2017 · 1 response

The government is carefully managing the country's tight forex cash flow, with little options to raise funds in the international market. Cashed-in exports in the first half of 2017 added up to $14 billion, 22 percent higher than in the first half of 2016, but the government's room to maneuver sh...

Rising Tide of Opposition to President Zuma
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 18 Jul 2017 · 1 response

Nowadays South Africa seems to be moving towards a point of "President Zuma vs The Rest!" Of course, President Zuma in effect represents a powerful and well-entrenched segment of the ANC's existing control structures such as the numerical dominance at the Party's National Executive Committee (NEC...

Goldilocks Economy Is At Threat As Inflation Rises
HUNGARY · Forecast · 17 Jul 2017

There is remarkably little change in the outlook we presented in our previous Quarterly three months ago. In essence, Hungary continues to follow a benign macroeconomic path, which seems very well sustainable until the end of the forthcoming election period in late 2019, but will be most certainl...

Week of July 17
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jul 2017

Given that the Congressional recess begins on Tuesday, it should be a quiet week in Brasília.President Temer will discuss changes to Labor Reform with labor unions. In an effort to present a positive agenda, the president is to announce measures for the mining sector. On Thursday, social movement...

Economic Activity, Interest Rates and Consumption
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Jul 2017

Despite divergences between some indicators, the overall signs are that the contraction of economic activity is nearing its end. However, the recovery will likely be very slow. Although the real interest rate for one year (the yield on 360-day swaps deflated by expected inflation one year ahead) ...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 16 Jul 2017

The Justice March and the first anniversary of the attempted coup have been completed without violence. The odds of sudden military strike in Syria also remain low. Political risks remain acceptable in Turkey in the short-term. At the first anniversary of the coup attempt, Turkey is worse-off ...

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