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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Latest developments in Turkey
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Jul 2016

Once again I use the opportunity of questions posed by one reader to inform our audience about the developments in Turkey. The gist my message is that normalization is long way off and the economic spill-over effects are increasing by the day. Question: Does Erdogan have full control of the armed...

Corporate tax to be reduce to 23% by 2018
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Jul 2016

Due to higher-than-expected tax revenues, the MOF annouced a 4bn ILS tax cut in 2017, reducing the corporate tax rate to 24% (currently 25%) and lowering income tax brackets by 2%. A further reduction of the corporate tax to 23% is planned for 2018. In the past few years Israel has maintained str...

The MNB base rate is being further demoted
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Jul 2016

For a longer while now, Hungary's central bank has been making remarkable efforts to reduce the significance of its own base rate, in order to gain more flexibility by avoiding potential negative political consequences if at some point it needs to raise the effective level of interest rates on th...

MPC Makes a Compromise Move
TURKEY · Report · 19 Jul 2016

The Monetary Policy Committee cut the O/N lending rate by 25 bps today to 8.75%, from 9% earlier, while the O/N borrowing and weekly-repo rates were kept unchanged, at 7.25% and 7.5%, respectively. After some 200 bps cut of the O/N lending rate, the width of the corridor remains at an all-time lo...

​MPC Preview: Between a Rock and a Hard Place
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Jul 2016

Today’s decision will arguably be one of the most critical and difficult ones for the MPC, which is stuck between a rock (politicians’ wrath) and a hard place (fundamentals). So will the MPC be compelled to pause (after a cumulative 175 bps cut of the O/N lending rate) or will it deliver another ...

Week of July 18
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jul 2016

A relatively quiet week due to the “white recess” in Congress, which will resume activity in August. The municipal elections definitively enter the agenda with the beginning of party conventions to choose candidates and coalitions. We highlight the first meeting of the Copom to set the benchmark ...

Recession’s Ending Signals and Start of a Slow Recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Jul 2016

A large number of signs indicate that the current recession is reaching its end. The confidence indicators stopped falling at the end of last year, and since the first few months this year have been rebounding somewhat, with optimism accentuating due to the quality of the new economic team. But t...

​Growth revised upwards in Q116, PMI declines in June
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Jul 2016

GDP growth in Q116 was revised to 1.7% SAAR from 1.3% in the previous estimate. The main revision was export growth which currently reflects expansion of 1.6%, up from the 1.1% contraction in the second revision. This was mostly due to the updated CBS survey of service exports, conducted once a y...

Week of July 17
TURKEY · Report · 17 Jul 2016 · 1 response

The coup attempt has been put down, leaving behind several unanswered questions. Aftershocks from the disgruntled members of the military are still a possibility, but we are more concerned about new terror attacks by PKK and ISIS. More broadly, Turkey’s future will be determined by the path th...

Coup is over, the fall-out is just starting
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Jul 2016

I’m trying to write this brief while shuttling back and forth between 6 TV channels and 10 news websites I find more or less reliable, because the rest of the media depicts events with a heavy AKP tilt. All of the analysis is provisional and will be refreshed, as event gain more clarity. Even tho...

​Coup attempt almost dealt with
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jul 2016

Turkey came to the brink of a military coup on Friday night, but limited reporting on still on-the-air TV channels (two opposition ones are off the air) suggest the troops loyal to the government and police are about to deal with the rebels. Yet, it is not over. A few minutes ago I watched an F-1...

President Elect Pedro Pablo Kuczinski Reveals Names of Cabinet Members
PERU · In Brief · 15 Jul 2016

President of Cabinet, Fernando Zavala Foreign Affairs, 
Ricardo Luna Mendoza Defense, Mariano González Fernández
 Finance, Alfredo Thorne Interior, 
Carlos Basombrío Education, Jaime Saavedra Health, Patricia García Funegra Labor, Alfonso Grados Carraro Agriculture, José Manuel Hernández Calderon...

​Coup attempt in Turkey
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jul 2016

A few minutes after midnight Turkish time, a military entity calling itself “The National Peace Council” declared over the state-owned TRT TV that it has taken control over the government of the country. This is clearly a coup attempt, but I am still in the dark whether it has the full support of...

Improving the Context
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 15 Jul 2016

One of Russia’s most progressive governors was publicly arrested based on corruption accusations in what was in fact a conflict between several security services and the Presidential Administration clans. The carefully planned, staged and publicized arrest shows that the rules of the game have ch...

Co-government or militaristic transition?
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Jul 2016 · 1 response

General Vladimir Padrino Lopez openly joined the political game. In addition to his role as leader of the Bolivarian National Armed Force (FANB) and defense minister, he was appointed Chief of the Great Civic-Military Mission for Sovereign and Secure Supplies by President Maduro, a sort of chief ...

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