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Consequences of the Supreme Court decision to reject Lula’s habeas corpus
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Apr 2018

The Federal Supreme Court’s decision to reject Lula’s habeas corpus (HC) by 6 votes to 5 is an emblematic defeat for the former president and the PT. The result of the trial will have important political consequences.

A rate hike in May? (3)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Apr 2018

Headline inflation climbed further to 4.3% in March (4.8% under the old series) from 3.8% in February and 3.4% in January. The latest inflation print is slightly above the midpoint of the BSP’s 3.8-4.6% forecast for the month and what most analysts expected. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, monthl...

Simple Fidesz majority is the most likely outcome on Sunday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Apr 2018

Four days ahead of the parliamentary election, due on Sunday, a simple majority (between 50% and two-thirds of all mandates) won by the governing Fidesz-KDNP alliance seems to be the most likely, and also the most widely expected, outcome. Most recently, Fidesz, formerly seen as an easy winner of...

COSTA RICA: Carlos Alvarado elected President by a wide margin, but alliances should be necessary
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 04 Apr 2018

As explained in our Special Report of February 6, the general elections of February 4 decided the composition of Congress but not the Presidency. As no presidential candidate reached at least 40% of the valid vote, the first and second placed-finishers went to a second round on April 1. The date ...

A rate hike in May? (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Apr 2018

Market concern over the BSP’s decision to keep policy interest rates on hold appears to be growing. An early warning is of overheating risks with continuing double-digit private sector credit growth and expectations of higher public sector spending and borrowing for its infrastructure building pr...

Macroeconomic outlook
COLOMBIA · Presentation · 03 Apr 2018 · 2 responses

We expect a slower economic recovery, higher inflation, a larger current account deficit and a more depreciated exchange rate. See our forecast for the first round presidential election.

Core Inflation Drops, Likely Temporarily
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2018

Consumer prices rose by 1% in March, exactly in line with expectations, with the 12-month CPI rate easing slightly -- basically due to rounding -- to 10.2%, from 10.3% in February. Producer prices rose sharply however, to 14.3% from 13.7%, on the back of rising energy prices, suggesting that cost...

Weekly topics - Shot down during takeoff?
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Apr 2018

Expectations surround the Federal Supreme Court decision on the habeas corpus filed by former President Lula. The arrest of individuals close to Michel Temer will have repercussions in Congress. Several members of the Executive will leave their positions to run in the October elections. The deadl...

Credit and economic activity
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Apr 2018

The current economic recovery is the slowest since CODACE started dating economic cycles in Brazil. Assuming that GDP grew by 0.5% in the first quarter – a pace that the available indicators suggest is most likely – the economy would need to grow at a yearly pace of nearly 6% in the next three qu...

Despite strong consumer confidence, PC softens modestly
ISRAEL · Report · 02 Apr 2018

The labor market remains tight, with unemployment at 3.8% in February. The Poalim confidence index reached a record level in March but private consumption indicators point to some modest slowing of domestic demand. This could be due in part to increasing e-commerce and travel abroad. While this t...

Successful regulation of P2P defaults in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 02 Apr 2018

China’s regulators have instituted stricter rules on the financial system. In online finance, they have effectively restricted the growth of peer-to-peer lending (P2P). This has helped to reduce the number of P2P defaults and is an example of how regulators are increasingly able to reduce risk in...

Falcón’s very fine line
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Apr 2018 · 1 response

With seven weeks to go before the presidential election, Henri Falcón’s campaign has failed to lift off. The only way he can win is by presenting himself as moderate enough to win over certain factions of the Nicolás Maduro regime and minimize their exit cost but radical enough to persuade opposi...

Would you bet on Trump?
TURKEY · Report · 01 Apr 2018

President Trump announced that he wants GIs out of Syria as soon as possible, which may or may not be an official policy pronouncement. If the US does indeed withdraw from Syria, Turkey’s conflict with its powerful NATO ally would decline to manageable levels, mitigating the possibility of damagi...

Investors… On your marks, get set…
CHILE · Report · 30 Mar 2018

​February’s figures confirmed that inflation is low and will stay low and that inflationary pressures retreated. In addition, Inflation will fluctuate around 2% until July and will stay below 3% for the next two years. In its March quarterly Monetary Policy Report (IPOM in Spanish), the Central B...

Temer Administration
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Mar 2018

This Thursday (29), the Federal Police arrested several individuals that are closely tied to President Michel Temer (MDB). businessman and lawyer José Yunes, one of the owners of Rodrimar, Antonio Celso Grecco, former minister of Agriculture Wagner Rossi and Coronel João Batista de Lima Filho, kn...

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