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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Justice march and Syria needs monitoring
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Jul 2017

I’ve returned from a 15 day business trip to USA, where I had met representatives from roughly 35 institutions. I’ll provide more details in the upcoming Weekly Report, but in a nutshell interest in the Turkey story is strong, while positioning is light, which I expect to increase only very modes...

The European Commission on possible new conditionality attached to EU transfers
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Jul 2017

Politicians in the EU and especially in donor countries have been repeatedly talking about the need to attach tighter political conditionality to the distribution of financial grants by the European Union ("EU transfers') to member countries. This idea has come up in the context of performance on...

Tough Road for a Rebound
PERU · Forecast · 30 Jun 2017

The surprising severity of the El Niño phenomenon, and the worsening relations between Congress and the Executive branch, have moved us to revise our 2017 growth estimate. Still, these negative events are assumed to be improving with time, and the efforts for reconstruction after the climatic dis...

Rising Consumer Concerns about WMPs
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Jun 2017

In May, we conducted a survey of buyers of Wealth Management Products (WMPS) in China and also examined related data on defaults from the courts and public sources. We believe the RMB 26 trillion WMP market is the most liquid and volatile within China’s financial system and would be prone to runs...

Peaceful Holiday
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Jun 2017

Eid Mubarak is always the largest holiday in Indonesia. Celebrated after one full month of fasting, the holiday is usually filled with various celebrations, but at its center is the Homecoming Tradition, in which literally millions of people travel back to their hometowns. During this holiday ...

Economics: Slowing Trend Likely to Continue
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jun 2017

Data released last week on aggregate supply and demand through the first quarter of 2017 showed a 4.2% annual increase that was both better than expected and the most pronounced rise of the previous five quarters. In keeping with the trends of previous quarters, private consumption was the compon...

COSTA RICA: A Happy Ending? Not Exactly
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Jun 2017

Costa Rica’s Central Bank succeeded in controlling FX market turmoil in May, bringing the exchange rate down from the high levels it reached by the third week of May. But pressures persist, since Central Bank FX market intervention has not been neutral over the medium and long-term, as the offici...

Watch the Supreme Tribunal, not the helicopters
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 28 Jun 2017 · 1 response

Yesterday's events are part of the government's strong propaganda and terror offensives en route to the July 30 Constituent Assembly elections.The government's main fight is now against the "original" chavismo movement which erodes its political footing. Yesterday's noise distracted public opinio...

Politics: Violence Rebounds to 2011 Highs
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jun 2017

Last week brought more bad news on the security front as the May report on crime revealed the highest absolute number of murder investigations opened in any month since the current national system of official crime statistics was launched 20 years ago. In fact, there were more such murder cases t...

Week of June 26
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jun 2017

The General Prosecutor of the Republic, Rodrigo Janot, is expected to present an accusation against President Michel Temer to the Federal Supreme Court (STF). Members of the Public Ministry will elect Janot’s replacement on Tuesday, June 27, as he will leave his post in September. In the Senate, ...

The Interest Rate Cut at the Next COPOM Meeting
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Jun 2017

Although the political crisis has generated uncertainty about asset prices, particularly the exchange rate, two strongly disinflationary forces still predominate: the negative GDP gap and the solid anchoring of expectations. In the last Inflation Report, the Central Bank recognized these points a...

Growth is Under Pressure
CHINA · Report · 26 Jun 2017

Growth, though stable, is facing downward pressure. Value added for major industrial firms was up 6.5% y/y in May – flat on April, and slightly below that of Q1, but still higher than all quarters of 2016. But a key driver for growth in China, fixed asset investment, was up 7.9% y/y, down 1.3 pps...

Is the MNB's new inflation view consistent with the labor market?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Jun 2017

Our short answer is: no, it is most probably not. Our long answer is: the reader should decide, based on available information.On June 20, the Monetary Council presented its new quarterly view on inflation. It basically said that due to a favorable change in external conditions and a roughly on-p...

Ready to grow
CHILE · Report · 23 Jun 2017

The Central Bank kept the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) at 2.5% at its June Monetary Policy Meeting. Likewise, the communiqué barely changed from May. The June communique corroborated the minutes of May’s meeting and the latest Inflation Report that 2.5% is a floor for the TPM. Only significant addi...

Pre-Holiday (Contrarian) Musings
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jun 2017

Turkish markets will be closed on Monday-Tuesday, as part of the end-of-Ramadan holiday (Eid Al-Fitr) that starts over the weekend. We thought it’d be useful to recap some of the recent data releases and share a few somewhat contrarian thoughts on where things stand on the economy front. Turki...

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