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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

MPC Remains On Hold As Expected
TURKEY · Report · 15 Jun 2017

The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision was broadly as expected. The Bank kept all its rates unchanged, i.e. the Late Liquidity Window (LLW) at 12.25%, the O/N lending and borrowing rates at 9.25% and 7.25%, respectively and the one-week repo rate at 8.0%.

2017–2019 Forecast: Autocracy vs Reforms
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 14 Jun 2017

With a crashing economy and an unpopular regime trying to entrench its power, anything can happen in Venezuela over our 2017–2019 forecast horizon. We construct two scenarios that we consider equally likely, one in which Maduro’s government persists (“Autocracy”) and another in which it is replac...

Politics: Everyone wins, and everyone loses
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jun 2017

Although the PRI managed to pull off two close yet crucial victories in gubernatorial races at the beginning of the month, its share of the vote was halved in both states, and its barefaced abuse of public resources, apparent ballot-stuffing and theft of ballot boxes, as well as heavy-handed mana...

Economics: Inflation Likely to Head Lower
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jun 2017

Since the middle of 2016 we have witnessed a rebound in inflation in response to a series of “shocks”, and while we expect a point of inflection to be registered in the near future, at this point it is more important to determine when and at what pace such an ebbing of price pressures might occur...

“Original” chavismo: New actor on stage
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Jun 2017

A new actor is on the Venezuelan stage: the "original" chavismo, grouped around Chief Prosecutor Luisa Ortega Díaz. Ortega is discharging her institutional duty by opposing Maduro’s National Constituent Assembly (ANC) initiative. She is linked to “original“ chavistas who criticize Maduro and stan...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Jun 2017

The revelation of the content of the secret recording of the off-agenda meeting between Temer and Joesley Batista triggered an important change in the political and economic scenarios, increasing uncertainty and jeopardizing the continuity of the reforms advocated by the economic team. The contro...

Week of June 12
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Jun 2017 · 1 response

The Thursday holiday means reduced legislative activity. The main political event of the week is the PSDB meeting to decide whether it will remain in the governing coalition. The Constitution and Justice Committee of the Lower House may vote on the Constitutional Amendment proposal on direct elec...

GDP and BOP Prints: Initial Reactions
TURKEY · Report · 12 Jun 2017

The economy grew at a better-than expected 5% pace in Q1, y/y, compared with the consensus (and our) forecasts of around 3.5%. Our forecast slippage stemmed from stronger growth in both private and public consumption, which were markedly higher than the rates we had factored into our bottom-up ap...

Disinflation, Uncertainty and Falling Interest Rates
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Jun 2017

Inflation is decelerating further still, and the signs indicate it will be significantly below the target at year-end. Because of the huge slack in the production factors and anchored inflation expectations, there is room for the Central Bank to continue its easing cycle. However, the Central Ban...

Inflation shoots up
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Jun 2017

We forecast month-on-month inflation shooting up to 26 percent in June, and revise upward our May estimate to 22 percent (from 18 percent in our previous report). The year-to-date inflation rate for the first half of 2017 rises to 184 percent and the year-on-year rate goes up to 627 percent.

Temer survives Superior Electoral Court
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Jun 2017

President Michel Temer obtained an important victory in the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). By four votes to three, the Court decided to keep Temer in the presidency in the case that called for the annulment of the 2014 PT/PMDB presidential ticket. The Electoral Public Ministry will likely appe...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 11 Jun 2017

We find political risks acceptable in the short-run, though political stability is only skin-deep beyond the autumn/winter of 2017. At home, Cabinet reassignments and the new road map are delayed either because of the Qatari Crisis or by the counsel of PM Yildirim, who wishes to work with his cur...

Core inflation rose further in May
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jun 2017

CPI-inflation was 0.2% mom, 2.1% yoy in May. Although the yoy headline rate fell slightly, from 2.2% in April, this means no good news for the MNB (even though not very negative either). In fact, the various measures of yoy core inflation moved further up slightly, to 1.6-2.1% in May, from 1.5-1....

Economics: FDI Faces Stubborn Hurdles
MEXICO · Report · 08 Jun 2017

Investment turned in a stubbornly weak performance throughout 2016 and the first two months of 2017, which stands in contrast to private consumption, which was the Mexican economy’s dominant growth driver in 2016 and continues to display strength into 2017. Both private and public investment have...

Chinese politics and financial sector reform
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 08 Jun 2017

Special points to highlight in this issue: • While in many ways it seems that Xi Jinping will be able to emerge from this year’s Party Congress having placed allies in many of the key positions, including in the all-important Standing Committee, the recent stepping-up of what seems to be a conc...

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