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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Lights, Tunnels and Trains
TURKEY · Report · 29 May 2016

The Yildirim Cabinet is staffed with capable people, but has a fluffy economic agenda. With Mr. Simsek de facto reduced to the status of a PR person, monetary and fiscal policy will be run from President Erdogan’s Palace. We expect more crackdowns on dissidents and a more hawkish foreign policy. ...

All In With the Recall Referendum
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 May 2016

A united opposition has gone all in to oust Nicolás Maduro through a recall referendum. Massive support for the initial petition to hold a recall vote and recent surveys show that Maduro would lose the referendum badly. The Maduro regime has responded by escalating tensions and granting itself em...

A Bulletproof Deal
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 May 2016

The Colombian economy is undoubtedly slowing. Given current macro imbalances, this is a good thing, and actually what the Central Bank is hoping for, as it continues to hike interest rates. The question is: how much will growth slow? The mining sector continues to disappoint. Coal production f...

Medina’s Victory is Undisputed, But Local Elections Look Crooked
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 27 May 2016

As expected, President Danilo Medina won reelection by a landslide. In 140 of 158 municipalities where vote counting was complete early this week, Medina had won 61.7% of the vote. His challenger, the PRM’s Luis Abinader, won 35%. Medina’s PLD and its allies are also likely to take 28 of 32 Se...

Costa Rica: Hopeful Days
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 May 2016

Costa Rican politics have been interesting this month. On May 1st, an alliance of opposition parties retained control in Congress, after an agreement to order a fiscal discussion. New President of Congress Antonio Alvarez Desanti of the PLN (the largest party in Congress) has had a positive expe...

The math of income and GDP targets
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 25 May 2016 · 2 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: • While paranoia about China keeps Washington focused on predatory Chinese trade, Germany’s current account surplus is almost certainly a far bigger problem and one that may take longer to resolve. China is not the threat that many in Washington think...

Uncertainty Persists
CHINA · Report · 25 May 2016

Fixed asset investment growth slowed significantly in April, rising by 10.1% y/y, down 0.6 pps from Q1. Value added for major industrial firms was likewise weak, at 6% y/y, down 0.6 pps from March -- and a break from the previous recovery. We expect private investment to pick up after industrial ...

An irrefutable victory for the Temer coalition
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 May 2016

The vote on the bill to change the 2016 fiscal target, establishing a R$ 170.5 billion deficit, was symbolic, without the registration of individual votes. However, before that vote, two other votes on the matter took place in the House of Representatives.

A Shot of Vodka Might Help
ECUADOR · Report · 25 May 2016

Businesses are complaining of tax bullying, on the heels of two new tax reforms over the past four months. The first initiative, called the Bill of Fiscal Equilibrium, levied new taxes on sugared drinks, telephone services and cigarettes, and drastically cut the limit (from $10,000 to $1089) o...

Simsek-mania won’t last
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 May 2016

With our monthly coming up in a few days, I want to defer my detailed remarks on the composition of the new administration and potential policy path to that publication to focus on market outlook with the help of the Cosmic Strategist. The gist of our message after yesterday’s CBRT O/N lending ra...

The MNB issued a new signal on the forint today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 May 2016

Just as expected, the MNB reduced its base rate and O/N credit rate at today's monthly rate setting meeting, to 0.9% and 1.15%, respectively. But contrary to market expectation, the Monetary Council indicated that the easing cycle of latest months has come to an end with this step. As a consequen...

The government announces measures to limit spending and stimulate the economy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 May 2016

This morning the government announced a set of measures to limit the fiscal deficit and stimulate the economy. The two most complex measures (public spending ceilings and social security reform) will be adopted via constitutional amendments, which require 308 votes in the House and 49 in the Sena...

Economics: New Rules on Local Gov’t Finance
MEXICO · Report · 24 May 2016

President Enrique Peña Nieto signed the Law of Financial Discipline for States and Municipalities on April 27. The enactment and eventual application of this law constitute a major step forward by spelling out the very specific obligations that state and municipal governments must abide by in the...

Easing Cycle Continues, As Expected
TURKEY · Report · 24 May 2016

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the O/N lending rate by another 50 bps to 9.5% (simple) today, in line with our and the majority of market players’ expectations. The other two rates – O/N borrowing and weekly-repo – were left unchanged (Graph 1).

Politics: Insecurity, Debt, Graft and Elections
MEXICO · Report · 24 May 2016

With two weeks left before the June 5 elections, campaigning has intensified and turned increasingly negative. Questions of economic growth, corruption, and security have consolidated as the top issues in the minds of potential voters and central themes of the campaigns. And security indicators h...

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