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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​Improving Q1 activity data combines with falling trade balance
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 24 May 2017

INDEC’s monthly activity indicator (EMAE) reported yesterday a 0.8%y/y growth rate, for the month of March. With this result, the 1stQ17 GDP proxy closed with a rise of 0.2%y/y, the first growth rate since the 1stQ16´s 0.6%. It also compares positively to the a contractions of -2.1% in the 4thQ16...

Economics: Labor Market Weak Spots
MEXICO · Report · 24 May 2017

The labor sector of the Mexican economy has in recent years experienced an acceleration of growth in formal sector employment, as well as a steady decline in rates of joblessness, underemployment and informality. These developments are clearly positive in their own right, but they have by no mea...

Xi Advances Globalization Plan
CHINA · Report · 24 May 2017

Growth was stable April. Real estate investment accelerated, but fixed asset investment growth remained weak, and auto production and sales fell. Money supply grew more slowly, adding constraints on future economic growth. The active real estate market is one key positive factor for economic grow...

Martial rule
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 24 May 2017

Manila woke up this morning to news that President Rodrigo Duterte has declared martial law in Mindanao, the country’s second largest island group. The declaration followed fighting between government forces and a local terrorist group “Maute” in Marawi City, a small provincial capital in Mindana...

Political Quarrels, A Hurdle for Economic Recovery
PERU · Report · 24 May 2017

The government has continued to enjoy heightened popularity over its handling of the El Niño emergency, though the president’s approval rating in the north, where most disasters occurred, has fallen. We think it could fall further if reconstruction action and aid doesn’t start fast. Congress i...

Minister of agriculture Taras Kutovyi resigns – good sign for land reform
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 May 2017

Minister of agriculture Taras Kutovyi wrote on his Facebook page that he decided to resign. The decision is related to his position on land reform. Taras Kutovyi, a person from local agro-business, was clearly against free land circulation. He openly was standing for so called ‘lease rights’ circ...

Erdogan speech underwhelms, hopes rest on road map
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 May 2017

As I expected, Erdogan’s long-winded acceptance speech after his election to AKP chairmanship was frustratingly vague on promises of reform and restoration of democracy. Erdogan will now focus on overhauling his party, the local administrations and the bureaucracy to create a seamless machine to ...

Week of May 22
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 May 2017

The political crisis continues. Brazil’s Bar Association presented a new impeachment request against President Michel Temer, for a total of eight. The opposition is pressuring Rep. Rodrigo Maia to make a decision regarding these requests. On Wednesday, the STF will decide whether to suspend the i...

Short Term Consequences of the Political Crisis
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 May 2017

Last week started with an increase of optimism. The probability of approval of the social security reform looked better and asset prices began a new round of appreciation. These factors, together with the weak economic activity and falling inflation, led to stronger bets on a steeper decline of t...

Starting Off Slow
COLOMBIA · Report · 21 May 2017

This year is off to a weak start in terms of economic activity. GDP expanded by a modest 1.1% in Q1, the lowest since 2009, indicating that the Government’s forecasts of 2% growth for 2017 might be too optimistic. Economic activity seems a lot weaker than what both the markets and the Government ...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 21 May 2017

The politics section has been penned before AKP’s Extraordinary Convention where President Erdogan was expected to make a major policy speech. The first essay is dedicated to explaining why it is hard to take promises of a more liberal order or more democracy seriously. Erdogan’s primary objectiv...

After Me, Comes the Flood
ECUADOR · Report · 19 May 2017 · 2 responses

In the past days the Assembly by mandate of President Correa cancelled all bilateral investment agreements with around 15 countries included China and the United States. The argument behind is that those agreements have brought more harm than benefits to Ecuador because of the biased ruling of i...

Possible Scenarios for the Political Crisis
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 May 2017 · 2 responses

Given the gravity of the political crisis, the Temer administration is in dire straits. The country has been completely submerged in uncertainty, much greater than when the former president of the Lower House, Eduardo Cunha, decided to authorize the impeachment process against President Dilma Rou...

Economics: Energy Reform’s Stubborn Hurdles
MEXICO · Report · 18 May 2017

Three years since the energy reform was signed into law positive results have been recorded but there remains much work to be done in strengthening state-owned companies. One of the most successful aspects of the energy reform has been the enthusiasm with which investors have responded to the bi...

Temer at risk following news of audio recording
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 May 2017

According to journalist Lauro Jardim, from O Globo newspaper, the owners of JBS stated in their plea bargain deal to the General Prosecutor of the Republic (PGR) that they recorded Michel Temer authorizing the purchase of the silence of the disbarred former president of the Lower House, Eduardo C...

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