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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Shortages drive inflation up
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 May 2016

Inflation remains high and rising. In our view, shortages and black market food prices are driving inflation up despite parallel market rate stability and slower money supply growth since mid-April.

Politics: A Year of both Progress and Inaction
MEXICO · Report · 11 May 2016

The first year of the LXIII Congress (2015-2018) concluded with considerably fewer achievements than had initially been hoped for as the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto has apparently lost the ability it demonstrated during its first two years in office to promote its own legislati...

​AKP has made its choice
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 May 2016

It is 90% certain that AKP will introduce a mini package of Constitutional amendments to the Grand Assembly by mid-June to allow the president to remain a party member. Called “the semi-presidential system” in the Turkish political lingo would presumably allow Erdogan to retain the party chairman...

Impeachment Reaches the Senate Floor
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 May 2016

As expected, impeachment proceedings will move ahead tomorrow, Wednesday, May 11, after a very confusing Monday, which ended with interim Lower House President, Representative Waldir Maranhão, revoking his own call to annul impeachment sessions in the Lower House. The Senate is expected to appro...

Unemployment Increases in the First Quarter of 2016
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 May 2016

Unemployment increased in the first quarter of 2016 according to the latest labor force survey results released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). Recording 26.7% for the period from January-March 2016, unemployment rose by 2.2 percentage points quarter on quarter (q/q) after it registered 24...

Impeachment proceedings likely to carry on
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 May 2016

Below we summarize the current political climate after interim House President Waldir Maranhão (PP-MA) annulled the House vote on the impeachment:

Deepening stagflation
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 09 May 2016

We forecast for 2016–2017 deepening stagflation with no Pdvsa or Venezuela default—at least not in 2016. GDP shrinks by 10.0 percent in 2016 and 5.2 percent in 2017; inflation is 623.4 percent this year and 926.9 percent next year. We premise this outlook on the assumption that current policies r...

Risk Premiums and Exchange Rate at the Start of the Temer Administration
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 May 2016

As the start of the Temer government approaches, we want to answer two questions that are often raised: assuming the new government obtains sufficient political support to carry out the structural reforms necessary for the fiscal adjustment, can a sharp drop in the risk premiums be expected, hast...

Why is the forint so weak today?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 May 2016

Since January, the forint has been firmly holding the EURHUF 310-315 range, even frequently trying to break out at the strong end, which the MNB has been fighting against fervently. But today, it weakened to EURHUF 316, following some initial decline to EURHUF 314 on Friday. So what happened? We ...

Bankruptcy reforms
INDIA · Report · 09 May 2016

An orderly process for handling defaults on debt obligations, by individuals or by firms, is lacking in India. The new Companies Act, 2013, did not solve the problem. The RBI has come up with a few bank-centric programs such as the CDR or SDR, and they do not solve the problem. This is a major im...

​Who is afraid of Rodrigo Duterte? (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 May 2016

It is over but for the full counting. With 45% of the votes in, Mayor Duterte is now ahead 2:1. Most observers are just happy that the elections were peaceful and clean and that the mayor will secure a clear mandate at 40%. This is around the same as President Aquino's in 2010 that helped him gov...

The New Government and the Interest Rate Decline
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 May 2016

Backed by the changes in the economic policy field, the most important of which is the major shift in fiscal policy, the Central Bank under the coming Temer government will likely start an easing cycle. Although inflation is still very high, important forces are at work to reduce it, mainly: the ...

Weekly Tracker: May 8-14
TURKEY · Report · 08 May 2016

Prime Minister Davutoglu’s departure illustrated the highly unpredictable nature of Turkish politics, lending further credence to our scenario of steadily rising risks for the rest of the year. We can’t guarantee that Deputy PM Mehmet Simsek will retain his post in the new government, or struct...

Encouraging Signs
CHINA · Forecast · 06 May 2016

Though the 6.7% y/y GDP rise in Q1 represented a slowdown from Q4 2015, improved principal indicators bolster our confidence in future growth. Industrial output was up 6.8% y/y in March, a 0.7 pps rise from Q4. Fixed asset investment excluding agriculture rose 10.7% y/y, up 1.4 pps, with growth e...

Hibernation: A state of inactivity and metabolic depression
CHILE · Report · 06 May 2016

Data concerning sectorial activity reveal an economy that continues to grow at very low rates. Nominal retail sales growth went down. The index, beyond the fluctuation in February, has been flat during the year. Decomposing the index, it becomes evident that even though sales of non-durable good...

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