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The Political Crisis and the Economic Scenario
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 May 2017

The merely mild reaction of asset prices to a political crisis as severe as the present one is a puzzle. Of course, market agents are understandably hesitant to bet against a competent economic team that has instruments to intervene in the markets. But in the middle of last week, without any acti...

Little support for Maduro’s power grab
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 May 2017 · 1 response

The government has set the date for National Constituent Assembly (ANC) elections for July. “Elections” is a generous term: under Maduro’s transparent plan to consolidate power, his government would essentially hand pick the constitutional delegates through obscure “social sector” quotas and ad h...

Political Crisis and Asset Prices
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 May 2017

From looking only at the reflections of past crises on asset prices, it was tempting to predict that the current political crisis – which has seriously eroded the governability of President Temer – would trigger much stronger oscillations in asset prices than have occurred. We believe the relativ...

​First arrests in the Odebretch case
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 29 May 2017

As we finalize our quarterly report, the Office of the General Prosecutor ordered the first arrests in the Odebretch case. So far, 12 persons are currently in custody (or about to be) and will be charged: Angel Rondón: entrepreneur who supposedly acted as the middleman in the bribery scheme. Andr...

Zuma Survives via Defiance- And Only Just
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 28 May 2017 · 1 response

This weekend, the National Executive Committee of the ANC has been hard at work, discussing the fate of its president. It is the second time in the past six months that Zuma has had to face his own party's doubts about his leadership suitability. It is reported that 54 of a total of 104 NEC membe...

Abolition of `Foreign Investment Promotion Board' (FIPB) : this may not help matters
INDIA · In Brief · 28 May 2017

In the erstwhile regime, FDI into India was intermediated through the `Foreign Investment Promotion Board' (FIPB). For a certain class of transactions, e.g. FDI in certain industries, approval of FIPB was required. For most FDI, FIPB is not in the picture as the FDI process requires no involvemen...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 28 May 2017

President Erdogan’s meetings with key EU leaders at the sides of the NATO Summit helped defuse tensions and confirmed the mutual desire to reengage. Yet, concrete progress is difficult. EU handed the President a list of reforms to be undertaken in the next 12 months, at which time the relationshi...

The pro-cyclical Chinese economy
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 26 May 2017

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Moody’s has downgraded China one notch from Aa3 to A1. Except for a brief flurry within the first half hour after the announcement, when markets reacted quite negatively to the news, the market response has been minimal. • The main consequence of the...

Mr. Orbán sees no reason to give in to the EU on the CEU affair
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 May 2017

Well, events on Hungary do not seem to proceed in the EU's preferred way, to say the least. And even though it is still hard to say at which point, if ever, a real conflict with immediate consequences will develop between Hungary's Fidesz government and its Western European partners, the Hungaria...

IMF mission leaves Kyiv – official statement looks disturbing
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 May 2017

The IMF released official statement on conclusion of its mission to Ukraine. It looks the IMF officers are unhappy with the progress they observed. The statement says “further technical work is needed” in the area of pension reform, land reform, privatization and anticorruption “to transform thes...

Inflation Rate Reverts Back into the SARB’s Target Range, and Interest Rates Remain Unchanged
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 May 2017

The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee remains dovish as it announced today that it decided to keep the benchmark interest rate at 7%, resulting in the prime interest rate also remaining at 10.5%. This decision by the Bank was mostly expected, especially following the latest i...

The Central bank cuts policy rate by 0.5 ppt down to 12.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 May 2017

The Central bank cut policy rate by extra 0.5ppt down to 12.5% today. Slowing inflation as well as steady strengthening of hryvnia stands behind this decision. In particular, in April CPI slowed down to 0.9% m/m (+12.2% y/y) vs. 1.8% m/m (+15.1% y/y) in the prior month. Hryvnia strengthened by 0....

Industrial production picks up?
INDIA · Report · 25 May 2017

A new Index of Industrial Production for India has been released by the Statistical Office. There is a visible divergence in growth rates in the new and old series. Has industrial production picked up, or is the apparent increase a consequence of the change in the index and its composition? Th...

The new Dicom
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 May 2017 · 2 responses

The new Dicom forex supply system comes to life amid heavy rationing in BCV’s dollar sales to the public . Official announcements seek to convey the idea of an increase in forex. They also announce automation, supervision and control by a BCV Auction Committee, and transparency, by publishing the...

Politics: Photo Finish Possible in State Contests
MEXICO · Report · 24 May 2017

The elections that will take place in four states June 4 will likely increase our understanding of the relative strength of each of the political parties heading into the presidential contest of 2018, as well as the momentum potential nominees will enjoy heading into their party’s respective cand...

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