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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Present investment flows do not support a major shekel depreciation
ISRAEL · Report · 05 Nov 2018

Several economic indicators and surveys point to steady and fairly robust growth in Q318. Robust growth and a tight labor market are rate hike supportive, if inflation continues to be within target. We cannot rule out a rate hike on November 26, despite the fact that the MPC will be without an of...

October inflation: a relative moderation
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Nov 2018

Consumer price inflation came in at 2.7%, m/m, in October -- higher than the market consensus of around 2%, m/m -- with the 12-month rate hence rising further to 25.2%, from 24.5% in September. Domestic-PPI inflation was 0.9%, which meant a moderate decline in the 12-month rate to 45%, from 46.2%...

Further delay in Brexit talks represents a risk for the EU budget and Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Nov 2018

Well, Brexit is not only a problem for the EU budget because it will most probably take away some 9% of the latter's revenues, but also because delays in the conclusion of Brexit talks may cause a serious delay to the upcoming negotiations on the EU budget framework for 2021-2027. Very simply, th...

The great divergence
TURKEY · Report · 04 Nov 2018 · 1 response

Politics and the economy are moving in opposite directions, with the former improving visibly, as economic challenges seem to deepen. On the politics front, we expect the US to grant Turkey waivers from sundry Iran sanctions and hush up the Halkbank investigation, as Erdogan and Trump get read...

COSTA RICA: Interest rate adjustments. Right direction, but “too little…too late”
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 02 Nov 2018

On Wednesday October 31st, The Central Bank increased its whole spectrum of interest rates, in order to tackle two different, although related, problems. In doing so, the Bank´s president Rodrigo Cubero reaffirmed the control of inflation as the main objective of its policy under the current infl...

Sergio Moro in the government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Nov 2018

It is clear that the appointment of Sergio Moro to the Ministry of Justice will have exceptionally positive repercussions among Jair Bolsonaro’s electorate and for his government as a whole. The appointment is positive because it creates expectations of a tough stance against systemic corruption ...

VEB will probably receive USD 4.6 Bn in budgetary funds.
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Oct 2018

Vnescheconombank (VEB)'s board met with the government on 30 October with a view to agreeing the bank's recapitalization. A bill has been prepared by the Ministry of Finance and was discussed by the cabinet on 31 October.VEB is one of the largest banks and sponsors one of Moscow's top football te...

Bad news for China from Brazil; no news in the Chinese data
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 31 Oct 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Jair Bolsonaro’s election Sunday as President of Brazil is not, at least on paper, especially good news for China. The “tropical Trump” has attacked China consistently in his speeches, but even if he has no intention of following through, to the exte...

CBRT: Prepare for volatility in inflation
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Oct 2018

The CBRT has released this year's final Inflation Report today.2018 yearend inflation forecast was revised sharply up to 23.5% (midpoint of a range between 21.9% and 25.1%) from 13.4% previously, which is close to 24.2% of the latest CBRT expectation survey (October results), but higher than New ...

Trade war not yet hitting trade
CHINA · Forecast · 31 Oct 2018

Growth slowed in Q3, though it remained in a stable zone, with GDP expanding 6.5% y/y, down 0.3 pps from H1. Though the most uncertain factor is the U.S.-China trade war, trade is booming: in Q3, exports were up 10.3% y/y, and up 7 pps from Q2. Imports were up 19% y/y, up 8 pps from Q2. Trade als...

COSTA RICA: Dismal news
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Oct 2018 · 1 response

Worrying economic news continues in Costa Rica. Unlike what we’ve highlighted in previous reports, negative trends now dominate short-term economic indicator trends: we’re seeing a slowdown in economic activity, merchandise and services exports, credit to the private sector and fiscal revenues. T...

A milestone in the institutional structure of RBI
INDIA · In Brief · 31 Oct 2018

1. Under the existing RBI Act, there is no autonomy of the RBI. Section 7 of the RBI Act empowers the government to give `directions' to the RBI on any subject, without any transparency provisions. This feature of the RBI Act has always been present. Many people in the Indian discourse have loose...

Bye-bye, cyclical recovery.
CHILE · Report · 30 Oct 2018

The Central Bank has raised the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) to 2.75%, after keeping it at 2.5% for 17 months. The Bank will likely raise the TPM another 25 bp in the next RPM in December. More importantly, the Bank says that, under the base scenario, it will bring the TPM to at least 4% by 2020. ...

AMLO unveiled by the cancellation of Mexico's City new airport
MEXICO · In Brief · 29 Oct 2018

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), announced today that the construction of Mexico City’s new airport will be cancelled. AMLO has unveiled his personal priorities and it is clear he’ll choose political gain over economic stability. Markets reacted negatively not only due to the importance of thi...

Tough macroeconomic adjustment is supported by IMF program, while more severe stagflation raises political uncertainty
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 29 Oct 2018

From the second week of August until the end of September, Argentina suffered its second currency crisis of the year, with the peso depreciating from 28 to 42 pesos to the dollar. The first currency crisis had happened at the beginning of May, and lasted until the end of June, when the price of t...

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