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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: Tourism approached pre-Covid levels by the second quarter, but based on some indicators has since stalled and turned negative
MEXICO · Report · 20 Nov 2023

Tourism data this year shows that many areas of activity have largely rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. However, the latest figures suggest that a stagnation trend may have begun to emerge in recent months. Among tourism GDP indicators, it is worth noting that the consumption of tourism-related g...

Politics: The opposition coalition unveils a draft of its 2024 platform, detailing how it would govern
MEXICO · Report · 13 Nov 2023

So far, coverage of the 2024 presidential contest has been focused on the activities and polling numbers of the two leading candidates, Claudia Sheinbaum and Xóchitl Gálvez. The latter candidate has been left struggling to mount her own team and is campaigning as best she can on the basis of her ...

Economics: Revenue shortfalls and accelerating spending likely to further squeeze public finances as Hurricane Otis adds to the budget debate
MEXICO · Report · 13 Nov 2023

Public finance statistics as of September 2023 reflect an increase in spending concentrated in social programs and a stagnation of total revenues because of the contraction of oil revenues. These have jointly led to an expansion of the public deficit of close to 20% in September alone and a cumul...

Economics: GDP outperforms in 3Q even as evidence grows of slowing ahead that could be aggravated by the toll Hurricane Otis is taking
MEXICO · Report · 07 Nov 2023

Mexico’s economy expanded in the third quarter an annual 3.3% according to Inegi’s preliminary calculations. That headline result was better than expected but marked a slowing compared to the 3.7% recorded through the first half of the year and pointed toward the likelihood of further slowing in ...

Politics: Hurricane Otis’s devastation has only just begun as AMLO’s typical unipersonal response stymies reconstruction efforts
MEXICO · Report · 06 Nov 2023

When Hurricane Otis delivered a devastating blow to the state of Guerrero, the second poorest in the country, no one from any level of government or emergency services was anywhere to be found even as civil society sought to fill the void, backed by the solidarity of philanthropic foundations and...

Economics: October indicators show internal demand components remain strong, while non petroleum exports decelerate
MEXICO · Report · 31 Oct 2023

As we await this week’s preliminary report on third quarter GDP, economic news from the past month has painted a picture of an economy that continues to expand largely thanks to growth in fixed asset investments and private consumption. But continuing strength in industrial output has become incr...

Politics: AMLO’s extended verbal onslaught against the Judiciary takes the form of budget cuts, cancelling trusts and the threat of a major constitutional reform
MEXICO · Report · 31 Oct 2023

Last week, Congress approved the administration’s proposal to cancel 13 out of 14 of the trusts of the Federal Judiciary, just the latest episode in the extended history of President López Obrador's offensive against this branch. However, the executive’s attacks on the judiciary have intensified ...

Economics: New stimulus measures for export-oriented companies could fall short of the need to more fully exploit nearshoring
MEXICO · Report · 24 Oct 2023

The Federal Government published a decree on October 11 awarding fiscal stimulus to 10 key sectors of the country’s export industry, consisting of immediate deductions of investments in new fixed assets during the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. This measure seeks to promote investment and...

Politics: Morena and the opposition alliance face difficult choices as they pick gubernatorial candidates
MEXICO · Report · 23 Oct 2023

The election next June will be the largest Mexico has ever experienced with the more than 3,500 offices to be filled, including President and both chamber of Congress. Polls currently show the incumbent Morena party is favored to retain the presidency, and while its goal of achieving a two-thirds...

Economics: Inflation is a major concern, with core prices sticky, consumption demand and oil prices strong, and the public deficit continuing to swell
MEXICO · Report · 16 Oct 2023

One of the main concerns looming over the economy in the final stretch of 2023 and throughout 2024 is the direction of inflation, with its implications for monetary policy, interest rates, exchange rates and, ultimately, economic growth. While continuing to recede, core inflation’s recent traject...

Politics: Bereft of a coherent foreign policy, Mexico stumbles on the world stage and reverts to policy stances of the 1970s
MEXICO · Report · 16 Oct 2023

The disdain that President López Obrador has displayed toward the issues involved in Mexico's relationship with the world is summarized in his frequently used phrase to justify his indifference on the subject: "The best foreign policy is domestic policy." The consequences of the absence of any pl...

Economics: Soaring automotive shipments contrast with softening of other manufactured exports, while the super peso stoked demand for imports
MEXICO · Report · 10 Oct 2023

Mexico’s strong export performance through August of this year is primarily explained by the extent to which automotive exports continue to grow in response to robust US private consumption, especially the extent to which consumers are snapping up cars and trucks following a period of major short...

Politics: An innovative, quantitative approximation of the number of people each cartel employs in Mexico, rate of turnover/recruitment
MEXICO · Report · 10 Oct 2023

An article by analysts Rafael Prieto-Curiel, Gian Maria Campedelli and the late Alejandro Hope that appears in the magazine Science assesses the scale and dimensions of Mexican cartels. While conducting a sophisticated analysis that estimates the cartels' population size—roughly 175,000 people wo...

Politics: The most recent GEA-ISA survey shows candidate Claudia Sheinbaum with an initial advantage
MEXICO · Report · 02 Oct 2023

The most recent GEA-ISA quarterly survey of registered voters shows presidential approval bounced 5 percentage points to 62%, along with a significant shift in the reasons respondents cited for commending AMLO’s performance away from general empathic associations to tangible factors arising from ...

Economics: Mixed 2024 economic outlook as trade/FDI opening is combined with heightened risk on the public finance front
MEXICO · Report · 02 Oct 2023

Mexico's economic outlook includes some striking contrasts and uncertainties for year-end 2023, and especially for 2024. On one hand, we expect a certain degree of economic growth although at a slowing pace, and for macro-financial variables (interest rates, exchange rate) to remain stable, with ...

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