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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

SAUDI ARABIA: Budget assumes oil around $75 and shows spending discipline in some key areas
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 07 Dec 2022

The budget was released this evening (MoF), which largely reflects the headline figures from the pre-budget statement and anticipates a surplus of 0.4% of GDP, down from the estimated 2.6% this year. We will include more analysis in the weekly report on Friday and all the data will be added to th...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman upgraded + Bahrain positive outlook, Abu Dhabi GDP, PIF $17bn loan, Qatar-Germany LNG deal
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Dec 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ is widely expected to maintain quota levels next week, although a cut is possible. * Inflation has eased to 4.0% in the GCC, the lowest since May, with rent replacing food as the main driver. * PIF secured a $17bn 7...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi+Qatar to aid Turkey, Abu Dhabi H1 GDP, Kuwait announces political amnesty
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Nov 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil ministers denied that a quota increase was being considered in response to the Russia price cap. * Saudi Arabia and Qatar are finalizing up to $15bn in financing support for Turkey. * Saudi nationalism was stoked by a...

GULF WEEKLY: Gulf IPOs dominate EMEA, IMF reports on Oman, US grants MBS immunity
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Nov 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped to a one-month low on Fed worries and as OPEC/IEA revised down demand forecasts. * Kuwait and Qatar voted for Ukraine reparations while other Gulf states abstained. * Gulf IPOs have raised $18bn already this ye...

Little Gulf bond issuance is expected in 2023
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 16 Nov 2022

After quadrupling their debt burden since 2014, the Gulf states are largely pausing new borrowing due to non-oil fiscal reforms, the oil windfall and higher borrowing costs. Oman and Qatar are even actively deleveraging. Sovereign external debt security issuance has dipped from an average of $40b...

GULF WEEKLY: Omani income tax law debated, Empower IPO upsized, Qatar loans $1bn to Egypt
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Nov 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf leaders attended the COP27 summit in Egypt, and Arab funds pledged $24bn in climate funding. * Saudi Arabia has established a hub to capture up to 9m tonnes of CO2 a year. * The Arabian Drilling IPO traded well, a Ma...

QATAR: S&P upgrades the sovereign back to AA
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 04 Nov 2022 · 1 response

Hot on the heels of Moody’s positive outlook on Qatar on Wednesday, Standard & Poor’s has gone one step further and upgraded the sovereign back to AA, its level before all three rating agencies downgraded it by a notch in 2017 for a host of reasons including banking liabilities, the Quartet block...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC hikes oil demand forecasts, Saudi VAT revenue dips unexpectedly, Saudi worries about an Iranian attack
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Nov 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC hiked its long-term oil demand growth forecasts by about 2m b/d to 110m in 2045. * Gulf states largely mirrored the Fed rate hikes, as usual, bar Kuwait. * The IMF reduced most fiscal breakeven oil price forecasts, e...

QATAR: Moody's lifts to positive outlook
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Nov 2022

Moody's estimates that Qatar's debt has fallen to 42% of GDP and it expects that the improvement will be maintained as new LNG output comes onstream and capex falls after the World Cup.

GULF WEEKLY: PIF announces MENA funds, S&P hikes Sharjah deficits, Shell invests in Qatar LNG
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Oct 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The IEA forecasts lower long-term oil and gas demand because of green investments post-Ukraine. * Saudi Arabia repurchased $1.3bn in bonds but will wait until Q1 to fully allocate its fiscal surplus. * The “Davos in the D...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi issues bonds, Kuwait forms a new government, ADQ takes on Etihad
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Oct 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia issued $5bn in bonds/sukuk and tendered to buy back $1bn maturing in the next four years. * A Saudi PR campaign insisted the OPEC+ cuts were non-political and that it is not siding with Russia. * Moody’s cred...

Saudi Arabia: Bond issuance and buyback
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 18 Oct 2022

Today the Kingdom announced plans to issue a 6-year sukuk and a 10-year bond, its first dollar issuances in nearly a year, targeting about $3.5-4bn, as well as buying back bonds that mature over the next four years. The buyback tender was announced for the four Eurobonds that mature in 2023-6, wh...

GULF WEEKLY: GCC votes against annexation, oil demand revised down, Iraq picks president
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Oct 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC, IEA and EIA all revised down 2023 demand growth, and oil softened from last week’s surge. * Our analysis of the updated OPEC supply projections implies relatively flat quotas in 2023. * The US had offered to set a $...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil surges on OPEC+ cuts, Kuwait’s cabinet resigns in a day, PIF issues green bonds, Yemen ceasefire ends
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Oct 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil is surging after the dramatic OPEC+ cuts, which could push the market into deficit in November. * There is fury in the US at Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but little retaliatory action seems viable. * The Yemen ceasefire ...

Gulf states will bear almost all the OPEC+ cut in November, reducing their output by -5%
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Oct 2022

• The true cut will be less than half the stated 2m, given underproduction by most OPEC+ members. • Still, this will push the oil market into a deficit of about -1m b/d in Q4, according to OPEC's most recent published forecasts. • The Gulf states will cut by -5% m/m but this could be offset by ...

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