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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economic growth remains strong enough in October but is uneven among sectors
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Nov 2024

As the tenge slowly climbs toward the USD/KZT 500 milestone mark amid some unwillingness of the regulators to see it weakening, as the NBK occasionally reiterates its intentions to “support” the currency, the Kazakh economy keeps growing relatively fast. This “support” largely stems from the need...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 Nov 2024

Oct 30 Government: Due to the Tengiz project expansion, Kazakhstan expects to receive $2.8 bln in the budget by the end of 2025. Economy Ministry: The foreign assets of the National Fund of Kazakhstan will amount to $78.7 bln by 2027. Kazakhstan Automobile Union: Production of motor vehicles in K...

Inflation accelerates in October, as budgetary spending catches up with amended plan
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 05 Nov 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in October, m-o-m inflation accelerated to 0.9% (versus 0.4% in September). Inflation y-o-y climbed to 8.5% (from 8.3% in September). Services prices grew by 14.3%, inflation in the non-food segment reached 7.8%, and food prices were up by a mere 4....

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 30 Oct 2024

Oct 16 National Nuclear Company: Kazatomprom and German Siemens have signed a strategic agreement on partial localization of equipment production in Kazakhstan. Samruk-Kazyna: The Fund and the Chinese CITIC Group have agreed on strategic cooperation. Banking regulation: The Agency for Regulation ...

Kazakhstan macro: mixed budgetary performance in 9M24 amid lack of tax revenues
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 28 Oct 2024

At the end of last week, the Ministry of Finance released its monthly budgetary statistics, which revealed the continuous underperformance in the collection of taxes linked to oil prices and the exchange rate, and the September data didn’t point to any breakthrough. However, as the overall econom...

Kazakh economy keeps growing at decent rate, results by segments remain mixed
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Oct 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 9M24, the short-term indicator (the Bureau’s monthly flash estimate of the country’s economic activity) grew by 5.3% y-o-y and seemingly accelerated sharply in September as, in 8M24, it was up by 4.4%. Note that this measure is weighted activity ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Oct 2024

Oct 3 Borrowings: Kazakhstan placed sovereign Eurobonds worth $1.5 bln at a 4.717% yield. The demand was strong as issuance was oversubscribed by a factor of 4. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan will provide the largest compensation for oil overproduction within OPEC+ in October  Oct 6 President: A con...

Kazakhstan macro: The tenge correction looks healthy and will stabilize tax flow in 2025
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 11 Oct 2024

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance recently reported that tax revenues of the National Fund amounted to KZT2.980 trln in 9M24, i.e., about 50% of the annual plan (KZT5.957 trln). In 8M24, the government accumulated KZT2.863 trln (48.1% of the plan). As one can see, revenue flow remained sluggish in...

Kazakhstan placed Sovereign Eurobonds worth $1.5 bln
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 06 Oct 2024

Last week, Kazakhstan issued 10Y Sovereign Eurobonds for the first time since 2015. The issue was $1.5 bln, and the spread over the US Treasuries was 88 bps. The main purpose of this borrowing was the refinancing of the bond, which is due to mature on Oct 14 (and the amount is the same - $1.5 bln...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Oct 2024

Sep 23 Ministry of Agriculture: The Government of Kazakhstan has upgraded the 2024 grain harvest forecast and expects to harvest at least 20 mln tons versus 13-14 mln tons earlier. Government: Kazakhstan will increase financing of the agriculture industry by 20% to $1.5 bln in 2025. Sep 24 Presid...

Kazakhstan macro: budgetary policy to gradually improve
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Sep 2024

The August budgetary statistics brought no surprises as trends that had emerged previously remain the same. At the same time, recent statistics and some official publications hinted at some changes in budgetary policy and the implications for exchange rate dynamics. Even though the tenge weakened...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 18 Sep 2024

Sep 5 Government: The First Deputy Prime Minister, Mr. Sklyar, met with Gazprom's CEO, Mr. Miller, to discuss issues of cooperation. Government: Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan want to create a trade and logistics hub on the border, investments are estimated at $62 mln. Sep 6 Energy Ministry: Kazakhsta...

Steady economic performance in August
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Sep 2024

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, the short-term indicator that captures economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, communications, trade, and transportation combined with warehousing grew by 4.4% y-o-y in 8M24 (up from 4.1% y-o-y in 7M24). Construction was the fastes...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 04 Sep 2024

Aug 22 OPEC+: The OPEC has received updated compensation plans from Kazakhstan for the 7M24 over-production of oil volumes, which totaled about 1 699K bpd. KMG: The company and Chinese CNPC intend to launch urea production at the Zhanazholsky gas processing plant worth $1.5 bln. KMG: The company ...

Kazakhstan macro budget performance, macroeconomic policy: history repeats itself in 2024, but is likely to change going forward
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Aug 2024

The Ministry of Finance recently released 7M24 budgetary statistics and the government's medium-term macroeconomic outlook, confirming that tax revenues remained far from perfect in July, as the government accumulated only 44.1% of the annual planned revenues in the consolidated budget in 7M24. T...

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