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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation accelerates
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Oct 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that inflation in September reached 1.1% m-o-m and 12.9% y-o-y, up from 12.2% y-o-y in August. It seems that previously delayed budgetary spending is now aligning with the upwardly revised plans. This year, the government adjusted expenditures for the re...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Oct 2025

Sep 18 Mineral resources: In 4Q25, Canadian Laramide Resources will start exploratory drilling in southern Kazakhstan for uranium, REM and copper in 4Q25. Sep 22 Halyk Bank: The Bank will pay another $423.5 mln in dividends for 2024. KMG: The company and ExxonMobil have agreed to cooperate in the...

Kazakhstan macro: economic growth backed by rapidly expanding domestic credit to decelerate
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Sep 2025 · 1 response

According to the Ministry of National Economy’s flash estimate, the nation’s GDP grew by 6.5% y-o-y in 8M25. Earlier, the Ministry estimated economic growth in 7M25 at 6.3%. Prior to that, the Bureau of National Statistics reported that GDP grew by 5.6% and 6.2% y-o-y in 1Q25 and 1H25, respective...

Tax collection gradually improves but not enough
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 Sep 2025

The Ministry of Finance released 8M25 budget execution data for all levels of the nation’s budget system, including republican and local budgets, the National Fund, and extra-budgetary funds, which are now part of the consolidated budget statistics. Although tax collection showed some improvement...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 18 Sep 2025

Sep 4 Oil transportation: Russian Rosneft has reached an agreement with Chinese partners to supply an additional 2.5 million tons of oil via Kazakhstan. Parliament: Kazakhstan's parliament approved a law enabling authorities to monitor suspicious money transfers. National pipeline company: In Aug...

Kazakhstan macro: looking for 2026 budget challenges
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 15 Sep 2025

Despite the nation’s budget performance appearing stable in 7M27, with high inflation and a weaker tenge boosting revenues tied to the exchange rate, some questions remain about the 2025 and 2026 budgets. The republican budget saw its total revenue grow by 12.4% in 7M26, with tax revenue increasi...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 04 Sep 2025

Aug 21 Baiterek State Holding: The company will issue two tranches of Eurobonds worth up to $500 mln and up to KZT100 bln. KMG: The company’s net profit fell by 3% y-o-y in 1H25, while revenues increased by 6% y-o-y. Aug 22 Kazatomprom: The company’s net profit fell by one half in 1H25. Aug 25 S&...

Kazakhstan macro: reaching new local highs
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 03 Sep 2025

Recent weeks have been eventful: economic statistics showed improvement, and the Kazakh government released its medium-term macroeconomic forecast, outlining several key budget parameters for 2026 and beyond. However, the detailed 2026 draft budget was unavailable as of this writing. The National...

NBK holds the base rate; inflation accelerates
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Sep 2025

A few days ago, the National Bank of Kazakhstan kept the base rate unchanged, citing inflation remaining high in July (at 11.8%). The regulator acknowledged that inflationary pressure would remain elevated for the rest of the year and mentioned the possibility of future rate hikes. The NBK expect...

The government reveals its macroeconomic projections and medium-term budget figures
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 26 Aug 2025

The Kazakh government has announced the approval of the medium-term macroeconomic forecast and key budget figures. GDP is expected to grow by 5.4% in 2026, with average annual growth from 2026-2028 projected at 5.3%, indicating a slight slowdown after 2026. These figures seem reasonable given the...

Inflation likely to stay elevated in August prompting NBK to hold the base rate
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 22 Aug 2025

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, the weekly aggregate price index on socially essential goods (mainly basic foodstuffs) remained flat in the seven days ending on August 18. The MTD index remained at 0.1% on that day. It is not unusual to see some deflationary weeks during the harve...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 21 Aug 2025

Aug 7 Prime Minister: Kazakhstan plans to raise $24.2 bln in the next 5 years for the repair of utility networks. Aug 8 Government: Construction of the first nuclear power plant has started in Kazakhstan. Aug 11 NBK: Kazakhstan's gross international reserves increased by 0.8% in July to $113.041 ...

Budgetary amendments hint inflation to remain elevated in 2H25
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 20 Aug 2025

As the Kazakh economy grows fast, budget revenues not related to the oil price (and the exchange rate) grew steadily in July, especially on the local level. In 7M25 local budgets accumulated 57.4% of the upwardly amended yearly revenues. The government amended expected local budget revenues by KZ...

Economic growth accelerates
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Aug 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 1H25 the nation’s GDP grew by 6.2% y-o-y and in July economic growth accelerated as the Bureau also reported that in 7M25, the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for economic activity that covers over 60% of total production of goods and servi...

Kazakhstan macro: the tenge needs to weaken further
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 12 Aug 2025

In its most recent monthly statement on the FX market (published on August 1) the National Bank of Kazakhstan mentioned that trading activity increased last month and the tenge weakened by 4%. Total trade volume reached $5.7 bln, of which $0.7 bln was accounted for by FX sales from the National F...

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