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Kazakhstan macro: Budget revenues grow YoY but not enough, prompting tax reform
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 24 Mar 2025

We recently mentioned that the republican budget accumulated about 15.1% of annually planned tax revenues in 2M25, which looks like an improvement compared with January, when the authorities collected only 5.1% of the annual plan. However, things still don’t look very reassuring as some taxes are...

Revenue collection improves in 2M25, but more improvement is required
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 21 Mar 2025

The Ministry of Finance published February budget statistics, and the numbers looked comparatively better than in 2M24. However, more action is required to avoid unnecessary FX interventions associated with various schemes to raise additional revenues. As in 2M25, the USD/KZT was close to 515, wh...

Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 Mar 2025

Mar 6 President: Mr. Tokayev held a phone conversation with the Russian President, Mr. Putin, and discussed the implementation of joint trade and energy projects and economic relations in general. Mar 7 NBK: The Bank hiked the base rate from 15.25% to 16.5%. National pipeline company: Kazakh oil ...

Growth reportedly soared in February – economic surprise or statistical puzzle?
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 Mar 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported in February that the short-term indicator (that captures activity in industry, agriculture, construction, transportation/warehousing, communications, and trade) soared as in 2M25, it grew by 7.3% y-o-y. In January, it was up by 4.5 y-o-y, followed by a s...

Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 05 Mar 2025

Feb 19 KMG: The company and Hungarian MOL group (Multinational Oil and Gas) will discuss further details and conditions of testing supplies of Kazakh oil to Hungary. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Kazakh diplomats will discuss the attack on CPC with Ukraine. National railways: China will invest CNY...

Kazakhstan macro: gradually increasing trade with Europe to remain an important GDP driver
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 03 Mar 2025

A few weeks ago, we briefly broached the evolution of the 2024 aggregate structure of Kazakhstan's balance of payments and some issues related to the recent volatility of the tenge. In this report, we concentrate on some details of foreign trade statistics that provide additional color on economi...

Inflation accelerates, base rate hike is likely in March
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Mar 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in February, inflation m-o-m accelerated to 1.5% (versus 1.1% m-o-m in January). The y-o-y tally climbed to 9.4% (versus 8.9% in January). Prices rose across the board – for services, food, or non-food items. The latter implies that the main reason ...

Kazakhstan macro: Various factors are pushing the tenge off equilibrium again
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 Feb 2025 · 1 response

In our previous reports, we have repeatedly mentioned that an excessively strong tenge was one of the main reasons for the poor flow of the exchange rate-related taxes on various levels of the country’s budgetary system, including the National Fund. As the tenge weakened in December and remained ...

Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 Feb 2025

Feb 6 Prime minister: Kazakhstan gives priority to localization of production and technology transfer when choosing vendors for nuclear power plant construction. Feb 7 Fitch: The agency confirms the QazaqGaz rating at BB+ with a "stable" outlook. NBK: Demand for gold bars from private individuals...

GDP grew by 4.8% in 2024, growth acceleration unlikely this year
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Feb 2025

Last Friday, the Bureau of National Statistics reported that the country’s GDP grew by 4.8%, which is not too bad (albeit the government growth targets are more ambitious). Production of goods (35% of GDP) was up by 5.6%, as industry, agriculture, and construction delivered 2.8%, 13.7%, and 13.1%...

Economic activity in January looks uneven across segments as statistics sends puzzling signals
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 12 Feb 2025

The National Bureau of Statistics began publishing its regular macroeconomic statistics for January, and some data appear surprising. For instance, passenger transportation continued to grow fast in January (by 15.0% y-o-y) having increased by 13.8% in 2024 as a whole. Freight transportation grew...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 05 Feb 2025

Jan 24 Tengichevroil: Oil production has begun as part of the “Future expansion” project at the Tengiz oil field. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan wants to choose the vendor for the nuclear plant construction project by July. NBK: The Bank increased its gross gold and FX reserves by 27% (up to $45.8 b...

The current account deficit widened in 4Q24, and January tax collection is likely to be poor
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 05 Feb 2025

The National Bank of Kazakhstan reported that the current account deficit widened to $2.9 bln in 4Q24 (versus $0.3 trln in 3Q24) and reached $4.4 bln in 2024. In 4Q24, exports decreased by about $1.2 bln compared to 3Q24, while imports rose by $0.9 bln. Lower oil prices and limited volumes of exp...

Kazakhstan macro: government considering reform agenda amid overspending and fiscal difficulties
KAZAKHSTAN · Forecast · 31 Jan 2025 · 1 response

The Kazakh Ministry of Finance recently released the budgetary statistics for full-year 2024. The figures didn’t look impressive, either for the republican budget or the National Fund, because their revenues strongly depend on the exchange rate. Local budgets, however, performed very well because...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 22 Jan 2025

Jan 10 UN: The organization expected Kazakhstan's GDP to grow by 4% in 2024, it expects 4.8% annual growth in 2025-2026. National railways: The cargo turnover of the national railway carrier (Kazakhstan Temir Zholy) grew by 1.1% y-o-y in 2024. Jan 14 NBK: Kazakhstan's international reserves decre...

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