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CBRT reserve update
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2025 · 1 response

There is a lot of interest in CBRT reserve numbers these days for obvious reasons, so we thought it might be useful to send our latest estimates. In the three days from March 19 through 21, we estimate that the cumulative decline in net and gross reserves amounted to $26.6 billion and $19.2 billi...

Today's Monetary Council went just as expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2025

The MNB base rate was left at 6.5% and the interest rate corridor remained at 5.5% to 7.5%. At the press conference held after the meeting by Mr. Varga, the new governor, it has been stressed that the base rate may be left unchanged for a longer period, without any specification on how long that ...

The government considers bringing forward the 13th salary to regain popularity, the STF to deliberate on accepting charges against Bolsonaro for an alleged coup plot, INSS payroll loan rates are under review
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Mar 2025

The economic team is evaluating the possibility of advancing the payment of the 13th salary for retirees and pensioners in 2025. The request was made by the Ministry of Social Security, Carlos Lupi (PDT). Today, the First Panel of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) will begin deliberations on whethe...

Economics: The US 25% tariff affects a high percentage of Mexican non-USMCA products; the threat of reciprocal tariffs heightens uncertainty
MEXICO · Report · 25 Mar 2025

Tariff threats against Mexico have focused on demanding measures to prevent migration and fentanyl trafficking. However, it is very likely that issues directly related to foreign trade, attracting production chains to the US and a strategy to reduce the presence of Chinese products in the joint U...

Letters from the Insane Asylum
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2025

Former president Suleiman Demirel once remarked “24 hours is a very long time in Turkish politics”, which wisely describes the bind the nation finds itself in. The rival camps are moving their pieces at dizzying speed like in a Blitz chess game. Since our last writing on Sunday night, there is a ...

Politics: Sheinbaum proclaims missing persons a national priority. Can she deliver on her pledge to tackle the issue?
MEXICO · Report · 24 Mar 2025

The issue of missing and forcibly disappeared persons in Mexico has mushroomed into a major political and social controversy that has captivated public opinion and put the Claudia Sheinbaum administration on the defensive. The catalyst was the discovery of what has been called an extermination ca...

The political impact of the income tax exemption and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Mar 2025

President Lula visits Japan and Vietnam throughout the week. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) will decide whether to accept the charges against former President Jair Bolsonaro and other defendants accused of attempting a coup d'état. The 2025 Budget may be sent for presidential sanction. This w...

Global uncertainty and local risk
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Mar 2025

Uncertainty is the key term when it comes to the economic outlook. While there are still significant domestic challenges, the biggest concerns stem from the global scenario, reflecting the radical shift in U.S. policy with the beginning of Trump’s second administration. Although changes in tra...

Reality bites
ARGENTINA · Report · 24 Mar 2025

A series of unfortunate events descended upon Argentina in the last four weeks that disrupted the fragile Pax Financiera the country had enjoyed since August of last year. Trumpian economics or, more accurately, the global uncertainties created by it, was the first mishap. Here, the concern is ho...

Kazakhstan macro: Budget revenues grow YoY but not enough, prompting tax reform
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 24 Mar 2025

We recently mentioned that the republican budget accumulated about 15.1% of annually planned tax revenues in 2M25, which looks like an improvement compared with January, when the authorities collected only 5.1% of the annual plan. However, things still don’t look very reassuring as some taxes are...

Review of the economy: sustained difficulties with growth
INDIA · Report · 24 Mar 2025

We assemble an array of methods to obtain insights into the state of the economy. These suggest sustained difficulties with growth in the post-pandemic period. Revenue growth for large firms is near zero in real terms. Goods export growth is near zero when expressed in nominal USD. Services ex...

Monetary Council tomorrow: no rate change expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Mar 2025

This will be the first regular monthly rate-setting meeting chaired by Mr. Varga. In addition, it will be the one to discuss the Q1 inflation report. So, a really important event to watch anyway. Importantly, analysts are unanimously predicting no rate change from 6.5%, according to Portfolio.hu'...

2025 Federal Budget approved, Lula visits Japan and Vietnam to boost strategic trade deals, and the STF to review coup attempt charges
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Mar 2025

The Federal Budget for 2025 was finally approved. The final version of the text is being prepared so it can be sent for presidential approval. According to the Constitution, the president has 15 working days to sanction the budget after receiving the text. President Lula is currently on an offici...

Israel faces institutional confrontation as government moves against Attorney General and Shin Bet Chief
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Mar 2025

The Israeli government unanimously passed a resolution expressing no confidence in Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara—a move widely seen as paving the way for her dismissal. In response, Baharav-Miara sent a letter to the cabinet ministers, accusing them of seeking political loyalty rather than ...

The day the earth stood still
TURKEY · Report · 23 Mar 2025

On Sunday, CHP mayor Imamoglu and 92 “accomplices” were found guilty of fraud and/or supporting terror organizations, with Imamoglu being sent to Silivri Correctional Facility. While it is not certain, the politics author (PA) takes a bet that the mayor will be soon replaced by a government-appoi...

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