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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Exchange Rate and Domestic Fundamentals
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Mar 2014

The real has been appreciating since the middle of April, reaching nearly R$2.30/US$. But it was not the announcement of the primary surplus target that led to this temporary strengthening cycle, because in the same period a similar movement has occurred with the currencies of the great majority ...

Political Insights: Week of March 10
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Mar 2014

In the House, leaders will attempt a vote on the Internet Framework Law. In the Senate, the Constitution and Justice Committee will vote on state and municipal debt with the federal government. President Dilma may announce changes to the ministerial team, and congressmen from the PMDB discuss the...

Weekly Tracker: March 9-15
TURKEY · Report · 09 Mar 2014

Executive Summary Erdogan’s admission of culpability to graft may be a calculated tactic to present the voter with a binary choice, but it raises post-local election risks significantly. February polls reveal a lot of confusion and no material change in party standings. We maintain that no matter...

Sunday’s Race Matters Most
COLOMBIA · Report · 07 Mar 2014

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY If you’re under 34, middle class and politically unaffiliated, you probably don’t know who to vote for. You belong to a group comprising half of Colombia’s would-be voters. The other half are split between President Juan Manuel Santos and the other candidates. That’s the remarka...

Crimean parliament voted in merging with Russia: what Tatars will say?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Mar 2014

So, Crimean parliament moved closer the day of referendum (for March 16 from March 30) and decided that Crimea will join Russian Federation. To make matters worse the parliament announced nationalization of state property at the peninsular. All the hasty moves make us think that Moscow does not f...

All Eyes on Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 06 Mar 2014

The Russian leadership has been considering every option to keep Ukraine in the orbit of its influence for both rational and emotional reasons. However, a lack of real expertise or structured approach towards a Ukraine policy in Russia has resulted in over half a dozen government officials’ parti...

​Erdogan admits meddling with judiciary, tender results
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Mar 2014 · 2 responses

I’m writing this note with a slack jaw and in a state of utter surprise. PM Erdogan admitted that he did instruct his former Justice Minister to lobby the High Court of Appeals to approve the verdict against Dogan Group chairman Aydin Dogan—he was later acquitted by the High Court. In a meeting w...

Putin’s retreat: is everything over?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Mar 2014

Abkhazian scenario did not work with Ukraine. None believes in ‘evil Ukrainians’, no evidences of nationalists threatening Russians. At the same time, all media report that ‘unidentified’ gunmen are Russian soldiers – some soldiers even confirmed this fact openly to media. Against this backdrop t...

A Muddled Outlook
MEXICO · Report · 04 Mar 2014

Executive Summary Economic indicators published over the course of February were mixed. Consumers and producers alike grew increasingly pessimistic through January, at least in part owing to higher taxes that took effect that month and which also helped to lower sales at supermarkets and departme...

March Madness
TURKEY · Report · 04 Mar 2014

Executive Summary March Madness took start with daily releases of audio recordings suggesting that Erdogan and his family are taking bribes. The tensions will escalate through the month, though we have very little evidence to measure how much the voter sentiment is affected. AKP should win by a 4...

Headline OK, Details Not…
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2014

February CPI inflation came in at 0.4%, which meant a very slight increase in the 12-month rate to just below 8% from 7.8% a month earlier (Table 1; Graph 1). This is broadly in line with expectations and slightly lower than ours. But the underlying details are rather worrying. First, we had this...

Actions review: nerve wracking play
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Mar 2014

Though Putin already was granted permission to act officially, real military actions did not start yet. Russian troops keep teasing Ukrainian forces in Crimea trying to provoke more aggression. In particular, through the day Russian soldiers have been entertaining themselves by taking into besieg...

Weekly Tracker: March 2-8
TURKEY · Report · 02 Mar 2014

Executive Summary The Politics Author wishes to announce that he has changed his base-case scenario. He now expects political uncertainty to linger until the presidential elections in August. The trade deficit began to narrow in 12-month rolling terms in January, which should deepen in the coming...

It’s a war
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Mar 2014

Putin requested permission of the parliament to start military intervention. Effectively, this statement is equivalent to official announcement of war to Ukraine. Currently, we observe simultaneous large-scale destabilization at the southeast. In many cities pro-Russian forces organized large and...

Crimean situation review: Putin’s provocations did not work so far
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Feb 2014

Moscow is trying to launch Abkhazian scenario for Ukraine. After victory of Maidan it is critical for Vladimir Putin to take some revenge on Ukraine. Annexation of Crimea looks like his choice for revenge. Disposition in Crimea is very good for this plan: Russian-speaking population, Russian mili...

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