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Pressure points on China from the Trump Administration
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Mar 2025

Trump 1.0 and Trump 2.0 have or may impose a variety of tariffs. We have some sense of the macroeconomic impact on China. But what about the domestic political pressure points? We know that China has deliberately targeted its tariffs heavily on red states to weaken Trump’s base. Is there likely t...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi Arabia upgraded, new OPEC+ “compensation” cuts, Qatar mediates Congo-Rwanda, Israel restarts Gaza war
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Mar 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ pledged 128m barrels in compensatory cuts, offsetting two months of tapering. * Oman's pledges were the largest in the GCC, in relative terms, and its 2025 output will be flat. * S&P upgraded Saudi Arabia to A+ due ...

Revenue collection improves in 2M25, but more improvement is required
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 21 Mar 2025

The Ministry of Finance published February budget statistics, and the numbers looked comparatively better than in 2M24. However, more action is required to avoid unnecessary FX interventions associated with various schemes to raise additional revenues. As in 2M25, the USD/KZT was close to 515, wh...

The election campaign has started: major social policy measures announced
HUNGARY · Report · 21 Mar 2025

European gas prices have corrected substantially in recent weeks, more on the warming weather than on peace prospects. We still see no realistic prospect for the restart of the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine. Hungary finished the winter period with higher-than-usual gas reserves, and it c...

Congress approves 2025 budget, Lula travels to Japan and Vietnam to boost trade and strategic partnerships, and STF is set to rule on Bolsonaro coup charges
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Mar 2025

The National Congress has finally approved the 2025 Annual Budget Law (LOA). The text is the substitute bill bySenator Ângelo Coronel (PSD-BA), the rapporteur of the matter. The budget allocates approximately R$ 50 billion in congressional amendments. This Saturday, President Lula will travel to ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: FDI in Georgia underwhelms in 2024
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 21 Mar 2025

Last week the Georgian statistical office reported the much awaited full-year (2024) data on FDI. Similar to the tourist numbers I discussed earlier, foreign direct investment has been the subject of intense discussions and speculation over the course of last year as the government and the opposi...

An expected pause in interest rate cuts by the SA Reserve Bank
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Mar 2025

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced that it is leaving the benchmark interest rate unchanged following three consecutive cuts. We had largely expected this decision as we noted following the January decision. The repurchase (repo) rate, hence, remains...

Israel’s construction market in Q4: strong recovery but completions remained subdued; financing risks
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Mar 2025

Israel’s construction sector and housing prices have long occupied center stage in Israel’s economic discussions. The persistent shortage of Palestinian workers due to the war has caused delays and forced temporary shutdown of several construction sites, contributing to a rise in housing prices a...

Cards close to the chest
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Mar 2025

As expected, the Copom raised the Selic target rate from 13.25% to 14.25% per year, citing the adverse inflation scenario, reflected in still-elevated projections. Regarding its next moves, the Committee signaled its intention—should the expected scenario materialize—to persist with the monetary ...

On market volatility and CBRT actions: some preliminary reactions
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Mar 2025

After yesterday’s carnage in Turkish markets that reportedly led to some $10-$15 billion loss in reserves by some counts (driven mostly by foreign investor outflows, we hear), the CBRT has taken a number of actions today, which included raising the O/N lending rate by 200 bps to 46% from 44% prev...

Tax exemption bill faces opposition regarding compensatory measures, and congressional deadlines, interest rate hike, and committee elections mark the legislative agenda
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Mar 2025

While it would likely be difficult to vote against the bill that grants an income tax exemption for those earning up to R$ 5,000 per month, in the opposition the main criticism concerns the compensatory measures, which include a tax increase for those earning over R$ 50,000 per month. As expected...

A tangled context for the second round
ECUADOR · Report · 19 Mar 2025

The controversy around the concession of Camp Sacha was not without grounds. The Canadian-Chinese consortium failed to come up with the $1.5 billion required to complete the agreement before the deadline of Tuesday, March 11, required by President Noboa. The next government will have to make a de...

The government sends the income tax exemption bill to Congress, compensatory measures spark debate as Congress reviews income tax reform, and the Senate approves reciprocity bill against trade barriers and tax increases
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Mar 2025

The government, as previously announced, has sent to the National Congress a bill granting an income tax exemption for individuals earning up to R$ 5,000 per month. To offset the measure, which will have a fiscal cost of R$ 27 billion, the government proposed taxing those earning more than R$ 50,...

Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 Mar 2025

Mar 6 President: Mr. Tokayev held a phone conversation with the Russian President, Mr. Putin, and discussed the implementation of joint trade and energy projects and economic relations in general. Mar 7 NBK: The Bank hiked the base rate from 15.25% to 16.5%. National pipeline company: Kazakh oil ...

Erdogan crosses the Rubicon, Imamoglu and over hundred names arrested
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Mar 2025 · 5 responses

Erdogan has crossed the Rubicon in his quest to regain eligibility for a third term. His choice is an all-out assault on CHP to paralyze the party, too weak to call for elections for or even maintain eligibility for them for the next year or so. Late yesterday, University of Istanbul invalidated ...

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