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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Weakening shekel due to escalation concerns is main BoI consideration
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 Oct 2023

Geopolitics: Last week witnessed further skirmishes in Israel’s North against Hizballah with mortar fire into Israel and attempts to penetrate Israel so far resulting in the killing of nearly 20 Hizballah terrorists and a few Israeli casualties as well. On Sunday, Israel bombed two airports in Sy...

In the midst of fire
TURKEY · Report · 22 Oct 2023

The politics author reports back to work after an unfortunate sports accident, claiming that although Turkey is in the middle of a circle of fire, not much harm will come out of it. Yet, Turkey’s brief flirtation with the US is over as the Grand Assembly is yet to debate Swedish accession and ...

Kazakhstan bans sales of dual use goods to Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Oct 2023

On October 19 Astana announced that 106 items can no longer be exported to Russia. Western countries had repeatedly accused Kazakhstan of knowingly selling goods to Russia that had a military application. Russia found it easy to get around sanctions. The items now forbidden for sale to Russia inc...

GULF WEEKLY: PIF debut sukuk, S&P Positive on RAK, Qatar-Shell LNG deal, Dubai Q2 GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Oct 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent oil is back to $93 as the war risk premium offsets global economic concerns. * The UAE and Saudi leaders had a rare meeting on the sidelines of the GCC-ASEAN summit. * Qatar remained active in hostage mediation effo...

Kazakhstan economics: Economic growth to moderate as domestic credit growth is set to decelerate
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 20 Oct 2023

The Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan reported that the short-term economic indicator (the Bureau’s monthly measure of overall economic activity in the country) grew by 4.6% y-o-y in 9M23. The growth rate was higher in 7M23 and 8M23—5.3% y-o-y. In 1H23, this indicator grew even faster—b...

Webinar replay - Ecuador: What to expect from the new government amid constraints
ECUADOR · Report · 20 Oct 2023

Get insight into how President-elect Daniel Noboa will attempt to solve Ecuador's current severe problems of insecurity, fiscal pressure, and the threat of a strong El Niño—all with the replay of our webinar, "Ecuador: What to expect from the new government amid constraints".

Today is the deadline for President Lula to sanction the Time Frame bill, Senator Braga may submit his report on Tax Reform on October 24, and the Senate will discuss the bill that deals with the payroll tax exemption
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Oct 2023

Today is the deadline for President Lula to sanction or veto the proposal that addresses the so-called “Time Frame” bill, which sets the day of the promulgation of the Federal Constitution on October 5, 1988, as the “Time Frame” for the demarcation of indigenous lands. On Tuesday, October 24, Sen...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan: Are we complacent about macroeconomic risks? - A slide presentation
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Oct 2023

Uzbekistan is, without a doubt, our preferred investment opportunity in the region, and we discussed in detail the reasons for that in our recent Uzbekistan Primer. In this week's report, which is a slide presentation, we discuss some emerging macro risks that could derail economic performance in...

Georgian Parliament decides not to remove president
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Oct 2023

On October 19 the impeachment vote was held. As we predicted, President Zurabashvili survived. The ruling party (Georgian Dream) had wanted her removed from office for allegedly breaching the constitution. The motion secured 86 out of 150 votes but required 100 to pass. However, the motion might ...

Russia bans Japanese seafood
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Oct 2023

On October 16 Moscow announced the move. China did so a few days earlier.  The ostensible reason is that Japan released waste water from the Fukushima Nuclear Plant into the sea. The plant was the scene of a disaster in 2011. Japan is very safety conscious and insists that releasing the water int...

The rapporteur for Tax Reform may conclude his preliminary report, the Ministry of Finance submitted a bill on the ICMS issue, and the governor of São Paulo sent a bill to the Alesp on the privatization of Sabesp
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Oct 2023

Today, Senator Eduardo Braga may complete the first version of his report on Tax Reform. Formally, his final report should be approved by the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) on October 24. The Ministry of Finance decided to send a bill to replace Provisional Measure (MP) 1.185, which dea...

Ecuador Slide Presentation: What to expect from the new government amid constraints
ECUADOR · Report · 19 Oct 2023

Get insight into how President-elect Daniel Noboa will attempt to solve Ecuador's current severe problems of insecurity, fiscal pressure, and the threat of a strong El Niño—all with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Ecuador: What to expect from the new government amid constraints".

Kazakhstan fixed income: The debt market is attractive, but the moment is not perfect
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 18 Oct 2023

Uncertainty still prevails in Kazakhstan’s debt market. The increased exchange rate volatility is limiting the demand for securities denominated in tenge. The weakening of the national currency will lead to higher budget revenues in the remaining months of the year, but even under these condition...

Bank share prices imply slower long-term growth
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Oct 2023

Special points to highlight in this report: * We continue to see the expected partial recovery in the Chinese economy for the second half of 2023, thanks to expansionary policies by Beijing and a surge in debt. For now, I expect this partial recovery to continue through the end of 2023 and in...

The vote on the offshore and exclusive funds bill was postponed to next week, the rapporteur for Tax Reform is preparing his preliminary report, and the payroll tax exemption bill was also postponed to next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Oct 2023

As expected, the vote on the offshore taxation bill was postponed to next week, along with the incorporation of MP nº 1,184/23, which deals with the taxation of exclusive funds. Adjustments to the text are being negotiated. Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM), rapporteur for Tax Reform, is preparing h...

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