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Strong growth with (re-)rebalancing…
TURKEY · Report · 28 Feb 2025

The Turkish economy expanded at a sequential pace of 1.7%, q/q, in the final quarter of the year, broadly in line with forecasts, after slight contractions in the previous two quarters (in calendar- and seasonally-adjusted terms). Activity expanded by 3%, y/y, in Q4, with GDP thus growing by 3.2%...

GULF WEEKLY: Fitch negative outlook on Bahrain, Saudi issues bonds, Gaza's ceasefire deadline looms
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Feb 2025 · 2 responses

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent oil dipped to $72, the lowest this year, on weak economic data. * The US imposed new sanctions on Iran’s exports and ended a waiver for Chevron in Venezuela. * Moody’s added a positive outlook for Oman’s banking but...

So far, so good
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Feb 2025

In the midst of a deteriorating perception of Indonesia's economy, the country posted an encouraging Q4 2024 GDP growth result, at 5.02% Y/Y. This was higher than the 4.95% annual growth for the previous quarter. On a Q/Q basis, the Indonesian economy expanded by 0.53%, which followed the regular...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Feb 2025

The Russian market moved up on the wave of optimism regarding the potential resolution of the conflict in Ukraine. Many investors think it may happen in the coming months, and some sanctions on Russia could be removed in the aftermath. Moreover, this factor is treated as disinflationary, which ma...

More news on fiscal policy, more bad than good, today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Feb 2025

On the same day that Cabinet Minister Guyás told the press that the government remains committed to meet this year's 3.7% of GDP fiscal deficit target (after the preliminary actual 4.8% deficit ratio in 2024, both figures referring to general government by Eurostat methodology), the economy minis...

The government will meet with food sector representatives to discuss food prices, rumors in Brasilia suggest Haddad could be replaced, and Lula said he has chosen a replacement for Minister Padilha
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Feb 2025

In an effort to accelerate a decline in food prices, the government is expected to meet again with the supermarket and food sector to discuss the issue. Chief of Staff Rui Costa (PT) stated that discussions are underway for the meeting to take place next week. Yesterday, rumors emerged about a p...

Russian industry decelerates sharply in January
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Feb 2025

Rosstat reported that the industrial output was up by 2.2% y-o-y in January, which appeared unexpected as it was up by 8.2% y-o-y in December. Seasonally and calendar-adjusted industrial output contracted by 3.2% m-o-m. It might be too early to say that growth trends changed abruptly last month, ...

Volatile times bringing surprising favor to the region
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Feb 2025

Costa Rica dealt with an array of factors that slowed economic activity in 2024. However, real GDP growth outperformed our forecast, although growth was lower than in 2023. Domestic and external exogenous elements influenced the economic deceleration, such as a restrictive monetary policy stance ...

Business sector indicators for January signal a return to pre-war levels
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Feb 2025

The Bank of Israel's Composite State-of-the-Economy Index increased by 0.6% in January, following an upward revision of December's data to 0.9% (compared to the previous estimate of 0.7%) and a revision of November's data to 0.3%. This rise in the index reflects a 0.9% increase in business sector...

Another poll confirms Lula’s decline in popularity, the Minister of Health will be replaced, and the Ministry of Labor announced a provisional measure on accessing FGTS funds
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Feb 2025 · 2 responses

Another public opinion poll released yesterday confirmed the decline in President Lula’s popularity. According to CNT/MDA, disapproval of the government has reached its worst level since January 2023. Yesterday, the dismissal of Health Minister Nísia Trindade was confirmed. She will be replaced b...

No surprise from the last Monetary Council rate-setting meeting chaired by outgoing governor Matolcsy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Feb 2025

As governor Matolcsy is set to leave the MNB on March 3, today's was the last regular monthly rate-setting meeting chaired by him in the Monetary Council. There was absolutely no surprise caused by the Council on this occasion: the base rate was kept at 6.5%, the interest rate corridor at 5.5-7.5...

Lula announced more payments from the Pé de Meia educational program, he will meet with the Minister of Labor to discuss the FGTS payments, and the Federal Budget should be put to a vote on March 11
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Feb 2025

Yesterday, President Lula delivered a nationwide address on radio and TV to announce two measures. The first is that today, a payment of R$ 1,000 from the Pé de Meia program will be made. This is a financial-educational incentive program aimed at students enrolled in public high schools. Today, L...

Trump’s quick fixes hit a wall
UKRAINE · Report · 25 Feb 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump appears disappointed and irritated that his fast-track approach to brokering a Russia-Ukraine peace deal has stalled from the start. It’s evident that the new U.S. administration lacks a strategic plan for countering Russian aggression. Instead, the strategy seems to i...

Economics: Even as core prices show little movement, inflation continues to trend lower but could reverse course in the medium term
MEXICO · Report · 25 Feb 2025

In January, inflation broke well over a full percentage point below readings of a year prior. This is the latest sign of a clear downward trend that has largely been the result of the deceleration of non-core inflation’s agricultural products component, which has registered significant decreases....

Senate Committees pose challenges to the government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Feb 2025

This is the week before Carnival, with reduced activities in Brasília. The main event is the conciliation meeting led by the Supreme Federal Court (STF) regarding parliamentary fund transfers. The Lower House may vote on a complementary bill (PLP) that restores outstanding payments from 2019 that...

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