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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Gaza-Israel war: Implications for the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Oct 2023 · 1 response

* Normalization probably factored into Hamas’s motivations but wasn’t the primary driver. * Saudi normalization in the near term is now much less likely. * Qatar may be able to mediate a prisoner exchange, but ceasefire talks don't look imminent. * GCC-Iran reproachment will stall, not least b...

UN speaks out against Russia citizenship to people in East Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Oct 2023

On October 9 the UN said people in Russian-controlled Ukraine who do not accept Russian citizenship find it very hard to get public services, obtain and retain employment, healthcare and welfare. They are also at risk of being suspected of being Ukrainian agents. The UN described this as a human ...

BoI to sell FX, reduces likelihood of further tightening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Oct 2023 · 1 response

The Bank of Israel announced a program to sell up to $30 billion in foreign exchange. The Bank will operate in the market during the coming period in order to moderate volatility in the shekel exchange rate and to provide the necessary liquidity for the continued proper functioning of the markets...

Green light for monetary tightening in the Philippines
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Oct 2023

As approved by the Philippines’ Land Transportation and Regulatory Board (LTFRB), a provisional increase of P1 took effect yesterday for public utility jeepneys nationwide. This brings the minimum jeepney fare from P12 to P13 for traditional type and from P14 to P15 for the modern version. LTFRB ...

Continued weak demand and output figures in August
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Oct 2023

Retail sales fell by 7.3% yoy in August, after an 8.1% yoy drop in July and an 11% yoy decrease in Q2. In relative terms, this sounds like a bit of improvement, but it is still very far from anything that would directly suggest that the economy was already growing in this period: Note: In volume ...

Federal budget execution numbers look decent
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Oct 2023

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget was in deficit in 9M23, albeit the latter was narrower than in 8M23 (R1.7 trln versus R2.4 trln), implying that the budget was in surplus in September. It was the second month in a row of a federal budget surplus. Revenue collection improve...

Russia sells gas to Uzbekistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Oct 2023

On October 7 Putin said that Russia will begin the exports, and they will be transported via Kazakhstan. Russia's oil and gas exports have diminished due to Western sanctions and the EU's attempts to reduce its reliance on Russian gas. In 2022 gas exports fell 22%.  Putin made the announcement as...

Confusion will be my epitaph
TURKEY · Report · 06 Oct 2023 · 1 response

In this special report, we briefly review the latest macro developments and take a glance at the near-term issues and outlook in our favorite Q&A format. Growth likely stayed sequentially positive in Q3, and a sharp slowdown or contraction should be avoided in Q4, thanks to significant fiscal ...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil drops on recession fears, Saudi hikes spending and bids for World Cup, Q2 non-oil GDP surges in Abu Dhabi but not Bahrain
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Oct 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil plummeted by over 10% because of worries about the global economy. * Saudi Arabia hiked its spending plans sharply and now sees deficits of -2% of GDP in 2023-26. * JP Morgan is considering including Saudi sukuk in it...

Putin says more nuclear tests needed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Oct 2023

On October 6 Putin made the announcement, saying Russia must prove that its nuclear arms work properly. Russia signed a treaty banning more nuclear tests but he said Russia may withdraw from this because the US has not ratified it. He was speaking at the Valadai Club's annual meeting.  The 1996 C...

The Minister of Justice launched a plan to combat criminal organizations, today is the deadline for changes to electoral rules for the 2024 elections, and there will be a federal holiday next week on Wednesday, October 11
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Oct 2023

This week ends with the federal government's being pressured regarding public security and with friction between the Legislature and Judiciary. Due to the pressure for measures to combat crime, the Ministry of Justice and Public Security launched on Monday, October 2, a plan to combat criminal or...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia: Key Macro Risk Materializes - A slide presentation
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 06 Oct 2023

Armenia has been our cyclical favorite in the upcycle and it still enjoys double-digit GDP growth rates, having posted an estimated 10.4% YoY expansion of the economy over Jan to Aug. However, Yerevan’s fortunes have now changed given the outcome of the 3rd Karabakh war. In this week's report, wh...

As y-o-y inflation slows, NBK cuts the base rate to 16%
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 06 Oct 2023

On October 6, the National Bank of Kazakhstan cut its base rate from 16.5% to 16.0%. This move looks quite cautious but justified. On the one hand, from April to September, average monthly inflation remained at 0.6% m-o-m, implying that the annualized 6M moving average inflation fell to 7.4%. The...

Strong protests in Guatemala in support of Bernardo Arevalo
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 05 Oct 2023

October 5th marks the fourth consecutive day of protests and roadblocks of Guatemala's main roads. Several groups are rejecting the intervention of the Attorney General's office in the presidential transition process. During the latest round of raids, the Prosecutor's Office confiscated the votin...

Sabotage or cooperation?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 Oct 2023

One month before the scheduled date for the opposition primary, Elvis Amoroso, the National Electoral Council (CNE) president, suddenly announced his willingness to follow up on the requests for technical support made by the National Primary Commission (CNP) months ago. Amoroso proposed to provid...

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