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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: Mixed 2024 economic outlook as trade/FDI opening is combined with heightened risk on the public finance front
MEXICO · Report · 02 Oct 2023

Mexico's economic outlook includes some striking contrasts and uncertainties for year-end 2023, and especially for 2024. On one hand, we expect a certain degree of economic growth although at a slowing pace, and for macro-financial variables (interest rates, exchange rate) to remain stable, with ...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Oct 2023

Evidence is mounting that Brazil is facing a more severe fiscal problem than was assumed at the start of the year, due to the fragility of the fiscal framework as a brake on spending by the executive and legislative branches. The country seems fated to suffer from inefficient spending, with littl...

Government agenda put to a vote and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Oct 2023

This should be a busy week in Congress. The House may vote on the taxation of offshore and exclusive funds—measures presented by the Ministry of Finance. Another important bill is the one that deals with the guarantee framework. In the Senate, the priority is the vote on the Desenrola program and...

The NBU Switches to Controlled Fluctuation FX Regime
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Oct 2023

The NBU has announced a controlled fluctuation FX regime beginning October 3rd, abandoning the fixed exchange rate regime that had been in place since the full-fledged Russian invasion in February 2022. While the move was anticipated, the timing was unpredictable, catching observers by surprise. ...

Pithy data commentary - October 2, 2023
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 02 Oct 2023

We comment on the key data and news in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: Armenia loses NK, faces higher medium-term risks Armenia: Mayoral Elections in Yerevan signify a Pyrrhic victory for the ruling Civil Contract party Armenia: Short-term economic indicator increases by 10.9 perc...

Essential CIS Politics: October 2023
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Oct 2023

* Azerbaijan ousts Armenia, taking control of Nagorno-Karabakh. * Putin met the leaders of Turkey and North Korea, proving Russia is not isolated. * Russian regional elections were easily won by the main pro-Putin party amid claims of widespread rigging. * Ukraine claims to...

The monetary policy interest rate remains at 7.50% annually
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 02 Oct 2023

On September 29, 2023, the Central Bank decided to keep the monetary policy interest rate unchanged: 7.50% annually. The permanent liquidity expansion facility rate and the interest-bearing deposit rate also remain unchanged at 8.0% and 6.25% annually, respectively.

The House may vote on the bill that deals with offshore taxation this week, the Senate Environment Committee may vote on the new carbon credit market, and the Senate will vote on the Desenrola bill today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Oct 2023

This week, the House is expected to vote on the bill (PL) that deals with the taxation of financial investments abroad made through companies and funds known as “offshores” (PL nº 4,173/23). The offshore PL has an urgent status and will begin to block the House agenda starting on October 14. The ...

Economic indicators remain mixed
ISRAEL · Report · 02 Oct 2023

1. The labor market continues to tighten, with unemployment down sharply. 2. August witnessed an improvement in private consumption growth. 3. Other indicators point to slowing growth, both in service and manufacturing exports. 4. Without an upward inflation surprise or sharp shekel...

Russian police short of officers
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Oct 2023

The Russian police number 900,000. Per capita it is one of the largest in the world. It has 630 per 100,000 people, making Russia one of the most policed countries. The center of Moscow is perhaps the most policed place in the world. But that means that remote areas have very few officers. In Aug...

Cyclical respites, secular concerns
TURKEY · Report · 01 Oct 2023

In this very brief econ-only Weekly, we take a quick look at last week’s data releases and review the latest deposit and reserve developments. The bottom line is that there is little sign of rebalancing in the economy according to data through August, as we see it, while reserves are being helped...

Taking stock: MNB's financial results for H1 2023 look quite bad indeed
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Oct 2023

The MNB has come forward with its H1 2023 financial report. It says the MNB had a 6-month loss of HUF999bn, mainly because of very high interest expenditure, paid primarily to domestic banks as the cost of monetary stabilisation. However, its equity stock fell by HUF1767bn in H1, to HUF1512bn or ...

Germany and US try to pull Central Asia away from Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Oct 2023

On September 20 Biden met with the presidents of the 5 Central Asian nations. They were in New York for the UN General Assembly. The US is keen for the five to develop a regional identity that excludes Russia. This is happening anyway but the Ukraine War has accelerated it. On September 29 the Ge...

UK and Russia sanction each others' individuals
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Sep 2023

On September 29 London sanctioned 12 Russian officials over elections held in occupied Ukraine. The UK said the elections were fraudulent. The United Kingdom has sanctioned 1,600 Russian since the war began. Those sanctioned cannot visit the UK and have had their assets frozen. The EU and US are ...

A macro review
ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Sep 2023 · 1 response

With yesterday's publication of the Q2 balance of payments, we quickly review the quarterly macro indicators that were published towards the end of September. For this reason, we will momentarily put politics aside and focus on economic performance, but not without failing to remember that this S...

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