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Ukraine War close to a stalemate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Aug 2023

The Ukrainian counter-offensive has continued in southern Ukraine and around Bakhmut. At the maximum point of penetration, Ukraine has advanced 18 km since the start of June 2023.  Ukraine's objective appears to be to reach the Sea of Azov around Mariupol and thereby break the land bridge between...

Economy continues to grow amid some slowdown in the industry
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Aug 2023

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 7M23, the short-term indicator (covering over 60% of GDP and involving six major sectors) grew by 5.3% y-o-y. In 1H23, the figure was 5.6%. Unfortunately, the Bureau provided no m-o-m and y-o-y numbers for individual months. Therefore, detecting ...

Recession continued in Q2 as well, analysts expected markedly better numbers
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Aug 2023

Preliminary Q2 GDP growth was reported at -0.3% qoq, -2.3% yoy on seasonally and day-adjusted basis. Analysts appear to be unhappy, as the median expectation was +0.3% yoy, -1.3% yoy. There was a downward revision of the Q1 data as well, to -0.4% qoq, -1.2% yoy, from the original actuals of -0.2%...

President Abinader announces re-election aspirations, amid flagging economic growth
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 16 Aug 2023

President Luis Abinader has just announced that he will seek a second term. Though he’ll have to formally seek his PRM’s nomination in this October’s primaries, there’s no doubt that the popular president will win his party’s backing. He justified his decision to run for reelection in May 2024 on...

The new fiscal framework should be put to a vote next week, ministerial reform has not been finalized, and a power blackout affected 25 states and the Federal District yesterday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Aug 2023

The vote on the fiscal framework in the House has been scheduled for next week. The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), confirmed that it will be put to a vote on Tuesday, August 22. Yesterday, Arthur Lira said that he does not plan on meeting with President Lula this week to discuss min...

Headline growth steady, but the devil was in the details
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Aug 2023

GDP growth surprised on the upside, reaching 3% saar in Q223 (our forecast was 2.8%, Bloomberg survey: 2.3%). The devil was in the details. A closer look point to a decelerating economy. Industrial exports actually declined by 8.5% saar and high-tech service exports by 1.8%. Total exports decline...

Russian espionage alleged in the West
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Aug 2023

On August 15 it was announced by the BBC that 3 Bulgarians were arrested in the UK February 2023 but their arrest has only been publicized now. The 3 were suspected of spying for Russia. It has been alleged that they had fake passports stating they were citizens of several European countries incl...

Further improvement in the BOP in Q2
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Aug 2023

The preliminary balance of payments data for June was reported today. A few days earlier, KSH released some very positive merchandise trade numbers for the month already. But it is normally more efficient to look at the BOP, which offers the full picture, rather than just providing a partial view...

Inflation surprises again on the downside, supporting rate stability in September
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Aug 2023

Inflation surprises again on the downside Inflation in July increased by 0.3% m/m (expectations were for 0.3% to 0.5%, we were at the high end), and moderated to 3.3% y/y from 4.2% (due to strong base effect). Core inflation moderated as well to 3.6% y/y from 4.5%. All major categories reflect mo...

Easier said than done
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Aug 2023

Internal taxation, both national and sub-national, is excessive and disorderly, strongly hurting businesses. States and municipalities arbitrarily increased tax rates, made compliance more strict and increased penalties as their income was hit by the decline in economic activity, inflation an...

Haddad’s statement about the power of the House was not well received, the House may vote on the minimum wage MP, and Haddad also spoke about revolving credit
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Aug 2023

A statement made by Finance Minister Fernando Haddad to journalist Reinaldo Azevedo was not well received in the House. He said that the House has "a lot of power" but cannot use it against the Senate and the Executive Office. On social media, Lira said that biased and out-of-context statements d...

Political reset after liberal victories in the primaries
ARGENTINA · Report · 14 Aug 2023

Yesterday's primary elections were once more a clear example of how difficult it is nowadays for political polls to anticipate electoral decisions. Most polls placed the Libertarian presidential candidate, Javier Milei, in a range between 20% to 15%, with only a few extremes close to the 25% and ...

Economics: Poverty declines, incomes rise, yet major social deprivations prevail
MEXICO · Report · 14 Aug 2023

The results of the 2002 National Household Income and Expenditure Survey (ENIGH) were released at the end of July, while this past week the National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policies (Coneval) released the poverty figures for the same year, using data from the same survey....

Politics: Sharp debate erupts on the character of free school textbooks, reflecting the political divide
MEXICO · Report · 14 Aug 2023

A major controversy has erupted in Mexico concerning the free textbooks for primary and high school students. The debate is taking place on several levels. On the legal front, there are questions as to whether educators, parents, teachers, were consulted, as mandated by the General Law on Educati...

Airlines in Russia face technical trouble due to sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Aug 2023

On August 14 Red Wings Airlines had to delay a flight from Turkey to Russia for a second day due to a breakdown. The airline said that it has three Boeing 777 planes, and two of them are unflyable at the same time. Turkey is the only NATO country that has placed no restrictions on flights to and ...

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