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GULF WEEKLY: Turkey and Tunisia get Gulf aid, Kuwait plans a new SWF, Bahrain’s GDP is weak in Q1, Oman merges pension funds
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Jul 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * ADQ pledged to buy $8.5bn in Turkish sukuk, driving a rally, as part of a wider package of UAE deals. * Tunisia received $500m in grant and loan pledges from Saudi Arabia, boosting its bonds.o * Saudi Arabia signed a larg...

The Republicanos and the PP will likely be given positions in the ministerial team, the government should submit a bill on sports betting, and Haddad met with Lira to discuss the agenda for the second semester
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jul 2023

This week ends without a determination regarding Ministerial Reform. In Brasilia, the fact that the Republicanos and the PP will be given a ministry is being taken for granted. But President Lula is still trying to choose which ministry. In the coming days, the government also intends to submit t...

Topic of the week: Lifting CCA growth forecasts
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 21 Jul 2023

Strong early 2023 economic showing in the Caucasus and Central Asia warrants a review of our already more constructive view on GDP growth in the region. Indeed, average GDP growth inched down to 6.8 percent in 1Q23 from 7.8 percent in 4Q22, and remained virtually flat if one were to exclude Azer...

China’s "schizophrenic" economic policy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Jul 2023

The People’s Daily on July 20 published a policy statement issued July 14 by the Party’s Central Committee calling for promotion of the private sector. The statement was entitled “Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on promoting the development ...

US sanctions Kyrgyzstan for helping Russia evade sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jul 2023

On July 21 the US announced that sanctions were being imposed on 120 companies in Kyrgyzstan and Russia. The United States said that the Kyrgyz companies had helped Russia to circumvent sanctions. The US is trying to cut off Russian access to raw materials, manufactured goods and financing. The c...

Another warning from the EU Commission
HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Jul 2023

It is always difficult to tell what causes any particular move by currency exchange rates. But as regards the forint's most recent weakening against both EUR and USD over the last two days, it can be rather safely said that a new warning from the EU's budget commissioner Johannes Hahn played some...

A matter of words vs deeds
TURKEY · Report · 20 Jul 2023

The CBRT/MPC raised the policy rate (one-week repo rate) by a less than expected 250 bps today (vs. a median forecast of about 500 bps hike) to 17.5% (see chart), but broadly in line with our expectations (of some 200-300 bps hike). Recall that we’ve been working with the assumption of the MPC ge...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Jul 2023

The new attack on the Crimea bridge and the termination of the "grain deal" made investors nervous again, which prevented the ruble from moving below the R/$90 benchmark. At the same time liquidity in the banking sectors is shrinking, and the cost of funding is rising. The latter means that in th...

Changes in the ministerial team are expected in August, Haddad spoke about creating a tax on exclusive investment funds, and Tebet commented on the work that needs to be done in the second semester
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jul 2023

The Centrão is pushing for more space in the government. Andre Fufuca (PP) and Silvio Costa Filho (Republicanos) are the most likely members of Congress to be chosen to become ministers. A change in the ministerial team is expected in August but the exact changes have not yet been decided. Yester...

Peru: Peaceful protests
PERU · In Brief · 20 Jul 2023

Last night the announced protests by the leftists groups and unions took place. They were more peaceful than anticipated and according to Interior Minister, Vicente Romero, gathered in total 21,000 protesters, of whom 8 were injured (4 civilians and 4 policemen) and 6 detained. Although the prote...

Russia destroys Ukrainian grain silo
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jul 2023

On July 19 Ukraine said missiles had destroyed 60,000 tonnes of grain and damaged export infrastructure. This came 2 days after the Black Sea Grain Initiative ended. On July 18 Russia hit Ukrainian ports. Russia noted that the Ukrainian air defense was ineffective. It seems that Kalibr and Onyx m...

Inflation falls into target range, but pressure to boost growth is rising
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 19 Jul 2023 · 1 response

The positive news is that, after 32 months above the 4 ± 1% y/y target range, inflation fell into range in May, and in June stood at the 4% y/y midpoint. But the negative news is the weak January-May economic growth, of just 1.4% y/y. These two reports together led to monetary policy easing. J...

The second phase of Tax Reform will depend on the discussions in the Senate and the government’s negotiations with the Centrão, and the government issued an MP on INSS waiting times
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Jul 2023

Yesterday, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, said that the income tax reform will only go to Congress after consumption reform. It will depend on the negotiations on Tax Reform in the Senate and the expansion of the Centrão's space in the government. If the government meets all the demand...

South Africa's sigh of relief as Putin and Ramaphosa make a deal on BRICS summit
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 19 Jul 2023

President Putin and President Ramaphosa announced today that the Russian President is not going to attend the 2023 iBRICS Summit n South Africa next month. Russia will be represented by the Foreign Minister Sergey Viktorovich Lavrov. This brought to an end months of speculation and political wran...

Russian Health Minister calls for women to give birth before education and career
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jul 2023

On July 19 Mikhail Murashko said that many people need to make an attitudinal shift. The notion that a woman should achieve financial security before having children is wrong. Delaying having children too long heightens the risks of miscarriage and childlessness. He called for women to have 4 chi...

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