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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 13
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Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 16
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA: FISCAL PRESSURES AND POLITICAL SHIFTS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Economics: FDI sustains positive trajectory but the country is failing to fully reap the benefits of nearshoring
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jul 2023
Foreign direct investment (FDI) has performed favorably during the current administration, and its potential can increase if appropriate measures are taken to attract nearshoring investment. It is important to consider, however, that although the nearshoring phenomenon has been recurrently mentio...
Rates on pause, further tightening will depend on the shekel
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Jul 2023
Rates on pause, further tightening will depend on the shekel The Bank of Israel decided to maintain policy rates stable at 4.75%, stressing that present rates are already restrictive enough. The decision was supported by the lower-than-expected CPI in May and resulting deceleration of inflation (...
The next steps for Tax Reform and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jul 2023
This is the last week of activity in Congress before the recess. Few relevant topics are on the agenda. The Tax Reform proposal should be sent to the Senate this week, as well as the CARF bill. Senators are waiting for a new decree from President Lula on the sanitation framework. This week's T...
Global Inflation and Slower Growth: Consequences For Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Jul 2023
The pandemic was an unprecedented event that triggered a wave of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures, together leading to an outbreak of inflation around the world. The United States and the Euro Zone, which together account for almost 40% of global GDP, established fiscal stimulus actions that...
This is the last week of activity in Congress before the recess, a session of Congress was scheduled to vote on presidential vetoes, and President Lula will travel to Brussels on Saturday to attend a meeting between the CELAC and the EU
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jul 2023
This is the last week of activity in the National Congress before the recess. Since the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO) was not put to a vote, members of Congress will have an informal recess. A session of Congress is scheduled for Wednesday, July 12, to analyze presidential vetoes. An agreement betw...
Difficulties after restoring pre-pandemic conditions
INDIA · Report · 10 Jul 2023
We are now able to assemble a picture of the post-pandemic recovery based on four business cycle indicators: listed company net sales, listed company operating profit, exports and bank credit. At first, there was a powerful post-pandemic recovery, but after February/March 2022, there has been a s...
We are leaning towards a rate hike today
ISRAEL · Report · 10 Jul 2023
1. We see a 60% probability of a rate hike today. Sticky service price inflation, a tight labor market, wage pressure, a weaker shekel and fairly steady growth will support further tightening. 2. Politics continue to impact markets, as the coalition presses forwards with cancelling the “reas...
China and the Wagner coup
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Jul 2023
The Wagner coup in Russia was an awkward, embarrassing, and potentially destabilizing moment for China. China’s quiet support for Russia—while adhering to the letter of U.S. sanctions—was a balancing act that has thus far played in China’s favor. As Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Endowment note...
Uzbek President re-elected
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Jul 2023
On July 9 an election took place, and the result came on July 10. As expected, Shavkat Mirziyoyev was decisively re-elected. He will begin his third term. He took office in 2016. His term will last 7 years and he will be allowed to seek another one in 2030. Turnout was said by the election commis...
Watching Vilnius, reserves and the budget
TURKEY · Report · 09 Jul 2023
The politics author returns to work by discussing the potential electoral impact of the huge tax hikes at first. These will be highly painful to AKP voters in large urban centers, he thinks, but President Erdogan has other ways to engineer a victory at the March 2024 local elections. While it ...
Rate hike likely on Monday
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Jul 2023
We see a 60% probability of a 0.25% rate hike on Monday to 5.0%. What supports further tightening? Inflation remains sticky and accelerating in the service sectors. Granted, core inflation did slow to 4.9% y/y in May from 5.3% in April, but this was due to a sharp deceleration of core goods to 1....
S&P affirmed BBB-/Stable, but watch out for the details
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Jul 2023
On Friday, July 7, S&P did not change its Hungary sovereign credit rating, exactly as expected. This could be taken as completely market-neutral, but the agency's appraisal was not entirely innocent this time. S&P actually said that its Hungary macro forecast is based on the assumption that the E...
Russia bombards Ukraine as both sides face shortages
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jul 2023
On July 8 Ukraine said 8 or more people were killed when Russia struck a housing area in Donetsk with rockets. Russia maintains it only targets military sites. However, Russia's equipment is faulty, and it could simply be missing its target a lot. Ukraine's counter-offensive is in the south of th...
Zelensky visits Black Sea island to mark 500 days of war
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jul 2023
On July 8 he made a surprise to Snake Island. The 700 m by 700 m island is crucial in ensuring control of the eastern part of the Black Sea. A Russian warship famously asked its Ukrainian defenders to surrender on the first day of the war and they replied, ''Go F*** yourselves!'' Snake Island was...
Zelensky in Istanbul
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jul 2023
On July 7 the Ukrainian President met his Turkish counterpart. Zelensky had been in the Czech Republic on July 6 to thank the Czech Republic for arming Ukraine. Putin's spokesman said that Russia shall follow the talks with a keen eye. He said that Russia really treasures its relationship with Tu...