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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Senate meets today to vote on the PEC on Fuels, the government is worried about the electoral effects of the allegations regarding the former president of Caixa, and Budget Guidelines Law (LDO) was approved
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jun 2022

According to Senator Fernando Bezerra's report on the PEC of Fuels, “The state of emergency resulting from the extraordinary and unpredictable rise in the prices of oil, fuel and its derivatives and the social impacts resulting from them is recognized in the year 2022.” The probability is for the...

Economic growth gradually turns more negative in May amid uneven dynamics by sectors and different challenges they face
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Jun 2022

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors was up by 1.7% y-o-y in 5M22 but down by 3.2% y-o-y in May alone. Industry and transport posted a quite moderate y-o-y decline in May (around 1.7%-1.8% each) while retail sales collapsed by 10.1% - mainly due to the falling activity in th...

Norway blocking Russian supplies to island
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Jun 2022

On June 28 Norway announced that it shall not allow food and medical supplies to be transported to Russia miners on the Svalbard Peninsula. In May 2022 Norway blocked two containers carrying 20 tons of supplies. The supplies had been due to pass the only border checkpoint between Norway and Russi...

Panama on the GAFI gray list and awaiting the October exam. First-quarter GDP growth and IMAE numbers confirm 6.4% projections for the year. Inflation spikes in May. Cortizo to announce the status of his health condition next month.
PANAMA · Report · 29 Jun 2022

The government faces a credibility crisis if, during the GAFI committee meetings in October, Panama remains on the "gray list" or suffers a downgrade by GAFI. Minister Alexander's statements and official reports are optimistic about the outcome of the next review, but the Bank Superintendent is m...

Senator Bezerra’s report on the PEC on Fuels was postponed yet again, Senator Rodrigues submitted the request to install the MEC CPI yesterday, and the CNI holds a debate with the presidential candidates
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jun 2022

The PEC on Fuels will include an increase in the Auxílio Brasil program payment from R$400 to R$600, as well as a truck drivers’ voucher, an increase in the gas voucher, different treatment of ethanol in relation to other fuels and a subsidy for public transportation. Despite successive postponem...

Russia prevents unemployed pilots from emigrating
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jun 2022

On June 28 Russian newspaper Kommersant said that five civil aviation industry sources had told them the new unofficial policy. In March 2022 airlines starting making pilots redundant because Russian airlines lost most of their international routes and a high majority of their passengers. Russian...

COSTA RICA: Coping with the inflation challenge
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Jun 2022

Costa Rica’s most important economic feature in the first two months of the new Rodrigo Chaves administration has been the challenge for Central Bank policies, due to mounting global inflation that has exceeded the upper bound of Bank targets, coupled with rising FX pressures. Although at first s...

The Challenge of Guiding Inflation to The Target
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Jun 2022

The IPCA-15 for June, announced last week, increased the concern regarding unanchoring of expectations. All the core measures have continued to rise, and the annualized rates (quarterly and monthly) of the great majority of the disaggregated indexes are now higher than the cumulative rate over th...

Senator Bezerra postponed the submission of his report on the PEC on Fuels to today, the governor of São Paulo will reduce the ICMS on fuel to 18%, and today Senator Rodrigues may submit his request to install the MEC CPI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jun 2022

The PEC on Fuels will include an increase in the Auxílio Brasil program payment from R$400 to R$600, as well as a truck drivers’ voucher, an increase in the gas voucher, different treatment for ethanol in relation to other fuels and a subsidy for public transportation. The government is hoping to...

Surprisingly big increase of the MNB base rate today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Jun 2022

The Monetary Council raised the MNB base rate by no less than 185bps, to 7.75% today. Simultaneously, the O/N and 1-week credit rate was raised 10.25%, meaning that the interest rate corridor, the floor of which is the base rate itself, was reduced to 250bps from the previous 300bps. All this was...

Kazakhstan macro: The strong budgetary performance seen in 5M22 is likely to persist in 2022 as a whole
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 28 Jun 2022

Given that the Kazakh economy performed relatively well in 5M22 as industry, construction, transportation and storage sector, trade, and communications were up by 4.4%, 8.9%, 8.1%, 10.8%, and 7.2% y-o-y, respectively, the budget execution numbers looked encouraging as well. Note that there were s...

Economics: Global context complicates the Mexican economic outlook
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jun 2022

As the international economic scenario continues to deteriorate and multilateral institutions and analysts alike scale back their growth estimates, we need to assess the extent to which a weaker economic outlook abroad, especially in the United States, is likely to affect Mexico. More specificall...

Qatar hosts US-Iran talks to try and break the nuclear deadlock
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Jun 2022

The US and Iranian nuclear negotiators are arriving in Doha shortly for their first (indirect) talks since the JCPOA discussions in Vienna went on an extended pause in March. There have been rumors that Iran might be willing to postpone a removal of the IRGC's terrorism designation, the main outs...

Bolsonaro Version 2.2 and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jun 2022

The focus in the Senate will be the vote on the Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) on Fuels, with the expansion of social benefits (Auxílio Brasil, a gas voucher and truck drivers' voucher). Caio Paes de Andrade may assume the presidency of Petrobras. The Futura/Banco Modal poll on the presi...

Politics: High-profile killings spotlight Mexico’s worsening public security crisis
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jun 2022

The country’s public security crisis is showing no signs of abating. The figures are alarming indeed, at around 3,000 murders, 1,500 missing persons and 80 femicides per month. Through the 41 months of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s administration, the number of intentional homicides rea...

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