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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Privatization of Eletrobras approved in the House, Pazuello resumes testimony in COVID CPI and Salles under investigation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 May 2021

The provisional measure on the privatization of Eletrobras was approved in the House and will now be analyzed in the Senate. Pazuello perfomed well in the COVID CPI yesterday and should have another long day in the Committee today. Salles is being investigated for a corruption scheme to illegally...

Sberbank gives strongest shareholder returns in the world
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 May 2021

On May 19 Boston Consulting Group (BCG) published a study that showed that the Russian bank's performance since 2016 has provided higher dividends than any other bank anywhere. Sberbank is state controlled and it is a major lender. Sberbank is also Russia's biggest publicly listed company. It has...

Russia’s current account to strengthen in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 May 2021

The Central bank estimated that Russia’s current account widened to $28.1bn in 4m21 as an estimate of the 1Q21 balance of payments published earlier suggested that the current account surplus was at $16.8bn. If so, then the current account was particularly strong in April. Meanwhile, according to...

A negotiations bazaar
VENEZUELA · Report · 19 May 2021

Maduro’s government is negotiating with multiple parties. The signals sent by his important recent concessions, an outcome of ongoing negotiations, were listened to attentively by the international community, governments and think-tanks, forcing the interim government and the G4 to stop ignoring ...

​Progress towards an Iran nuclear deal hits oil
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 May 2021 · 1 response

We predict a 40% chance of a revived JCPOA nuclear deal closing next week, with an 80% chance of it happening by July, after the June 18 Iranian presidential elections. The oil market is finally beginning to wake up to the threat but hasn't yet priced it in. This presents both a fiscal and a poli...

Instead of calling for the discussion of the Fiscal Pact, the Government begins discussion of a Social Pact with workers and employers.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 19 May 2021 · 1 response

Yesterday, the Government launched the call for the discussion of a Social Pact with the participation of representatives of the business and labor sectors. The agenda of the discussion is the revision of the Labor Code and the Social Security Law, the first with 30 years of validity and the seco...

Former Minister of Health, Eduardo Pazuello, to testify in the COVID CPI and Congress should vote on Eletrobras privatization
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 May 2021

The longest serving Minister of Health during the pandemic was granted a habeas corpus from the STF, granting him the right not to answer Senators’ questions. The provisional measure on the privatization of Eletrobras is expected to be approved and should be sent to the Senate this week.

No new US sanctions on Nord Stream 2: rumors
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 May 2021

On May 18 Axios reported that the United States shall not impose further sanctions on the gas pipeline. The US Government will not sanction Nord Stream 2 AG - the Swiss company controlled by Gazprom - that is involved in building pipeline. The US is refraining from sanctioning the firm due to nat...

Sugar profits at all time high
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 May 2021

On May 17 it was announced that sugar companies have made a bumper profit. This is ironic since the PM railed against companies for excessive profiteering only last week.Rusagro is a comestible company and it made USD 152 million in profit before EBITDA in Q1 2021. That is a YoY 100% increase in ...

Three ministers out: big cleaning on the eve of second anniversary in power
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 May 2021

Yesterday, on May 18th, Verkhovna Rada dismissed three ministers: Minister of Infrastructure, Vladyslav Krykliy; Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture Igor Petrashko; and Minister of Healthcare, Maxym Stepanov. This reshuffle is merely the result of infighting between interest g...

Election contest tightens; economy surprises on the upside
PERU · Report · 18 May 2021

Less than three weeks before Election Day on June 6th, the second-round runoff between presidential candidates Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Castillo has turned tight. Most opinion polls published over the last four weeks confirm that Castillo has lost much of the strong lead he held at the start of t...

Twitter will not be banned in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 May 2021

On May 18 it was announced that Twitter has done just enough to avoid being banned by Roskomnadzor (the Russian communication authority). Twitter has been slowed in Russia since March 10 because of its persistent failure to remove prohibited content. The authorities claim this is mainly about chi...

GDP numbers look better than the headline print
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 May 2021

The Israeli economy contracted by 6.5% saar in Q121, following growth of 6.3% in the previous quarter. This headline print looks disappointing (we were actually expecting a modest increase in growth), but the devil is in the details: In the beginning of 2021, taxes on new vehicles (hybrid) increa...

Former Minister of Foreign Affairs Ernesto Araujo testifies in the COVID CPI today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 May 2021

​Today, former Minister of Foreign Affairs Ernesto Araujo testifies in the COVID Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) in the Senate at 9 a.m. Brazil’s relationship with China should be the focus of his testimony, given Brazil’s difficulties in importing supplies for the production of vaccines...

Russian personal debt reaching crisis level
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 May 2021

On May 17 the Duma was told by the Russian Central Bank that payday loans could be reaching crisis level. A bubble has formed. Household spending is the lowest since 2009. Households have borrowed to cover essential purchases.The number of loans over 90 days behind rose 20% in Q1 2021. These are ...

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