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​QATAR: Upgrade likely as LNG expansion moves forward and benefits from the energy transition
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Feb 2021 · 1 response

* Qatar should have the lowest yields and strongest ratings in the Gulf given its fiscal strength. * Sovereign bond supplies could become constrained, although new GRE issuance is likely. * Qatar invested in gas when it was unfashionable and reaped the rewards, but developed an independent s...

High-heat politics burn hopes for agreement
ECUADOR · Forecast · 17 Feb 2021

Those Ecuadorians who do not want a return by the Correistas viewed with hope the meeting held last Friday, February 12, between Guillermo Lasso and Yaku Perez, who have fought vote by vote for their right to contest the second round. A difference of fewer than 34,000 votes in favor of Lasso has ...

Russia sanctions 9 Ukrainian companies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Feb 2021

On February 13 Moscow announced a new round of sanctions on Ukraine. The companies affected are Craneship, Donmar, Transship and Maxima Metal. The first three are all involved in sea transportation. This takes the total number of Ukrainian companies sanctioned by Russia to 84.

China’s stimulus and the bond market
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 16 Feb 2021

What is the state of China’s stimulus programs in 2021 and can it be sustained? If the consumer sector fails to pick up speed – as is currently the case, particularly in services – how will China generate growth? The bond market has been an important source of credit, with a 13 percent rise in ou...

Kazakhstan manufacturing Sputnik V
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Feb 2021

On February 16 Kazakhstan announced that it is manufacturing the Russian vaccine with Moscow's permission. The Karaganda Pharmaceutical Complex has been granted the certification to do so. Kazakhstan is the first country outside Russia to make the vaccine. It is thought that India, Brazil, South ...

Turkmen President appoints his son as deputy PM
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Feb 2021

On February 12 Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov made his son Serdar the Deputy Prime Minister. Serdar was also made Chairman of the Control Chamber. Serdar Berdymukhamedov has already held various ministerial posts and a governorship. It is speculated that the 39-year-old will succeed his father.Presid...

Vaccination against Covid-19 begins
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 16 Feb 2021

Today, the vaccination process of the Dominican population against Covid-19 begins. The first vaccines arrived yesterday and correspond to the Covishield vaccine, developed in India by Astrazeneca. The National Vaccination Plan against Covid-19 was also presented yesterday, which contemplates the...

GDP numbers surprise on the upside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Feb 2021

In 2020, the GDP contracted by 2.4%, less than originally expected. Q420 was especially strong and actually expanded by 6.3% saar (we had expected contraction), but closer to + 2.7% without taxes on imports. December witnessed a huge increase in vehicle imports (which are heavily taxed) due to hi...

Genuine good news on Q4 GDP
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Feb 2021

In first estimate, real GDP has been reported to have grown by 1.1% qoq and fallen by 4.3% yoy in Q4 2020. Both figures are on seasonally and day-adjusted as well as non-annualized basis.The good news is that this way, GDP fell only by 5.2% in the whole of 2020 in real terms, by significantly les...

FixPrice in Russia will launch IPO in London
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Feb 2021

On February 15 the Russian discount store announced an IPO. It is estimated the company will be found to be worth USD 6 billion. There will be a secondary listing on the Moscow Exchange. FixPrice says it is the fastest growing value retailer on earth. Its most expensive product is USD 3.40.FixPri...

Inflation surprises on the upside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Feb 2021

Inflation in January reached -0.1% m/m compared to market expectations of -0.3% m/m. Annual inflation reached -0.4% y/y up from -0.7% in December. Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) was flat (0.0% y/y), up from -0.4% y/y last month. January’s inflation surprises were most...

Economics: Inflation and wage hike effects on household income and formal jobs
MEXICO · Report · 15 Feb 2021

The inflation readings of Coneval’s food and non-food baskets have both been outpacing headline consumer inflation. The drastic changes in the composition of consumption that Mexican families have undergone during the current coronavirus pandemic imply that the evolution of the NCPI fails to dist...

Demand for refinancing in CBR is decreasing
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Feb 2021

Today CBR has conducted the placement of 1-month and 1-year REPO loans. Banks raised R50 bln in the first category and expressed no interest in borrowing money for a longer period of time. As a result, the total amount of placement was the minimum since October 2020, when banks received R620 bln ...

Russia’s industrial output continues to gradually recover in January despite fewer working days than a year ago
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Feb 2021

Rosstat reported that the country’s industrial output contracted in January by 2.5% y-o-y. Mining was down by 7.1% and manufacturing by 1.0% y-o-y. In the same report, the statistical agency significantly revised up December 2020 statistics, particularly on the manufacturing side. The 4Q20 and an...

Politics: The geography of political violence
MEXICO · Report · 15 Feb 2021

In the second installment of our analysis of how security conditions have evolved in the past three years and what we can expect from those trends in this crucial election year, we are turning our attention to the specific dynamics of politically related criminal violence at a time when the abili...