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ÁKK released a financing plan for 2021 today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Dec 2020

A few days ago, the Finance Ministry let the world know that the main general government deficit target for 2021 had been raised to 6.5% of GDP from the original 2.9%, which was set in June. However, the deficit would be reduced from the current official forecast of 8-9% of GDP for this year.This...

Swiss sanction Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2020

On December 12 Berne announced that it was freezing the assets of President Lukashenka, his son Viktar and 13 other senior Belarussian officials. Those on the list are prohibited from entering Switzerland including in transit. Switzerland has traditionally been strictly neutral. It is sea change ...

Christmas comes early for Ukraine with World Bank loan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2020

On December 12 it was announced that the World Bank is lending Kyiv is USD 300 million. The loan is aimed to help low income people. The economy has been roiled by coronavirus. Up to 23% of people in Ukraine are in poverty. Unemployment has spiked. A loan due to be granted in April 2021 is being ...

Muddling through a fiscal crisis
UKRAINE · Report · 14 Dec 2020

A fiscal crisis and desperate efforts by Ukraine’s leadership to eke out at least a tiny positive signal from the IMF have been the main topics of focus in recent weeks. Despite an improvement in budget collections, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko admitted that public coffers were missing at le...

The politicization of the vaccine and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Dec 2020

Despite the fact that the Congressional recess begins on December 23, this will be the final week of legislative activity this year. On Monday, the House may vote on the bill that deals with state debt and the new currency exchange law, among other proposals. Parliamentarians will also vote on th...

Despite BoI intervention, pressure for appreciation continues
ISRAEL · Report · 14 Dec 2020

Macro fundamentals continue to support a shekel appreciation; we expect an increase in the CA surplus in Q320. In September-November, both industrial exports and imports expanded rapidly, reflecting strong growth in these sectors. Economic indicators point to softer consumption in December, follo...

Economics: New infrastructure announcement falls short again
MEXICO · Report · 14 Dec 2020

Gross fixed capital formation, which had already been receding since the first days of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s government, has been one of the variables hardest hit during this year’s economic and health crises. So the recent announcement of a second raft of mostly private-public ...

Steady fiscal performance in November
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2020

The Russian federal budget posted a deficit of R0.815trln in November and R2.512 in 11M20. In November, federal budget spending increased to R2.298 trln (versus R1.969 trln in October) and reached nearly R19.040 trln in 11M20. Note that the amended 2020 federal budget assumes expenditures at 22.5...

The impact of the pandemic on Russia’s demographic – additional information from Rosstat
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2020

In recent days Russia’s daily infection cases fluctuated around 28K, while the death toll, according to Rospotrebnadzor, kept fluctuating around an upward trend and once exceeded 600. Rospotrebnadzor is an agency, that apart from various other duties is in charge of collecting real-time statistic...

Despite BoI intervention, pressure for appreciation continues
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Dec 2020

Highlights of weekly macro report:Economic indicators remain generally positive, exports accelerate In Sept-Nov, both exports and imports expanded rapidly, reflecting strong growth in both industrial activity and private consumption, especially after the partial opening of the closure. Credit car...

Notes from my meetings on the economy
TURKEY · Report · 13 Dec 2020 · 1 response

I have done a few virtual meetings last week, and joined a sell-side panel, where I shared some thoughts on Turkey’s economic outlook, at a --well, yet again-- extremely tricky juncture. Below, I briefly summarize what I’ve said, including a few issues/questions that popped up in the meetings,...

Russian and British coronavirus vaccines may combine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2020

On December 11 it was announced that the maker of Sputnik V will join forces with AstraZeneca to try to make a join coronavirus vaccine. The British coronavirus vaccine is made at Oxford. The Gamaleya Research Center developed Sputnik V. The state run laboratory's vaccine has met with widespread ...

3Q20 y-o-y GDP upgraded
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2020

Rosstat upgraded its estimate of the 3Q20 y-o-y GDP growth, which of course remained negative, but less so (-3.4% versus -3.6% released earlier as a flash estimate). This upgrade was generally in line with GKEM Analytica’s thinking and previous upward revisions Rosstat. As a result, the 9M20 GDP ...

EU to give Ukraine EUR 600 million
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Dec 2020

On December 9 Brussels announced that it is granting more macro-financial assistance to Ukraine. This is in view of coronavirus and its economic repercussions. The Vice President of the European Commission said more aid will probably be forthcoming. The money needs to be spent on raising living s...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE F-35s pass Senate, Morocco normalises, Qatar budgets conservatively
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Dec 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: ● The Gulf Summit may happen in Riyadh rather than Bahrain to facilitate a Qatar deal. ● The JCPOA was a central focus at the Manama Dialogue and Europe could play a key roll ...

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