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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russian constitutional reforms take effect
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Dec 2020

On December 8 Putin signed the amendments into law. The State Council was solely consultative organ. Its status has been raised to being a constitutional state body whose complement is filled by regional governors and officials by presidential appointment. The State Council shall direct policy bo...

Russia verifies Venezuela election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Dec 2020

On December 7 Moscow endorsed the Venezuelan National Assembly election. Russia has a close relationship with Venezuela based on oil interests and common hostility to US hegemony. The US, EU and Organization of American States denounced the election as a sham. The opposition dismissed the electio...

Russia's food production not compensating for sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2020

On December 7 the National Rating Agency published a report on Russia's import substitution policy with regard to food. The report concluded that the government's policies have had little success. The government had hoped for an agricultural boom. Indeed Russian farmers have done well but have no...

Politics: Under-ambitious judicial reform objectives
MEXICO · Report · 07 Dec 2020

By far the weakest link in Mexico’s hopes for consolidating its democracy is the extent to which power is exercised in a manner far removed from an indispensable democratic prerequisite: respect for the rule of law. The country’s federal and state court systems have long been plagued by grave lev...

The succession in Congress after the STF decision and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Dec 2020

This is a week with important votes on the Congressional agenda. In the House, votes are scheduled for the BR do Mar proposal, the bill on state debt, and the bill on the use of public funds to fight the pandemic. In the Senate, the new law on public tenders and the regulatory framework for the n...

No agreement seems to have been reached on the rule-of-law mechanism until tonight
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Dec 2020

A short while ago, foreign minister Szíjjártó told Reuters in Brussels that Hungary and Poland are holding themselves to their intention to veto the 7-year EU budget and the recovery package attached to it.Also today, an unnamed diplomat at the EU has told Reuters that the two countries have been...

Who is afraid of Gustavo Petro?
COLOMBIA · Report · 07 Dec 2020

The national government deficit for 2020, estimated at 8.2% of GDP in June, was by November rising toward 8.9%, and the estimated deficit for 2021 had been massively revised upward, to 7.6%, from 5.1% of GDP in June. Given that the government’s GDP growth forecasts were also revised downward, fro...

Economics: November data points to trouble ahead
MEXICO · Report · 07 Dec 2020 · 1 response

There were a few positive tidbits from last month’s economic news, and in general indicators tended to ease off their historical lows from earlier in the year, but they remain very weak. A sequential increase in the leading indicator for September pushed the index barely back into expansion range...

A month of good news for the PRM government, and of misfortune for the PLD
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 07 Dec 2020

The actions carried out by the Attorney General’s office during the last weekend in November ended the waiting period for the submission to justice of the alleged corrupt officials and close associates of the administration of former president Danilo Medina Sánchez. Ten people were arrested durin...

Private consumption rebounds in November
ISRAEL · Report · 07 Dec 2020

* The fiscal deficit reached 11.1% GDP in the LTM; we expect a deficit of 11.8% this year. * Private consumption indicators point to a strong rebound in November, and consumer confidence has improved modestly as well. * Total disposable income (including government support) of workers ac...

Moldova strips president-elect of security service control
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2020

On December 4 Parliament passed a law stating that the incoming President Maia Sandu will have no authority over the intelligence services. Instead Parliament will control these services. It is suspected that the security services are sympathetic to Russia. The Socialist Party (which is pro-Russi...

Something has to give
TURKEY · Forecast · 06 Dec 2020 · 1 response

A supportive global backdrop, combined with the recent changes in economic management, a rate hike and a somewhat more helpful posturing by President Erdogan vis-à-vis reforms on the domestic front, have created, rightly so, a more constructive investor sentiment toward Turkey. But make no mis...

US law targets Russian doping
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Dec 2020

On December 6 Trump signed a law that empowers US law enforcement to arrest and prosecute those suspected of doping in sport anywhere in the world is US athletes, sponsors or broadcasters are involved in the competition. The Rodchenkov Act was passed on December 4. The World Anti Doping Agency (W...

Private consumption rebounds in November
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Dec 2020

Highlights: Economic indicators continue to point to a gradual recovery Credit card purchases increased by 20% in November due to the partial opening up of the second closure. The data is not seasonally adjusted, we estimate this reflects a 10% growth (sa). Expansion of private consumption will s...

Polish government is moving in a zigzag, Hungary holds its position firmly
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Dec 2020

Just one day after Polish deputy PM Gowin told the press his government could back away from its fiscal veto if the EU issued some legal assurances on the rule-of-law mechanism, the same government's speaker said that his words were mistranslated or misinterpreted but anyway misunderstood, as he ...

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