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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Scenarios for Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Oct 2020 · 1 response

​The payment of R$ 600 in emergency aid to informal workers ends on December 31. Both the government and Congress are advocating for a program to replace it, and now there is immense pressure from the Ministry of the Economy to find sources of financing the new program. The importance of this mat...

Covid-19 weekly update - week ending October 5, 2020
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 06 Oct 2020

Generally weakening growth in key consumer metrics, including auto sales, congestion, and film attendance, suggest that the demand side is still a problem for China. Much of the recovery is being driven by fixed asset investment, which is underscored by property sales. The recapitalization (throu...

Protesters in Kyrgyzstan seize Government House and free ex-president from jail
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Oct 2020

On October 6 demonstrators stormed Government House in the capital. Former President Atambaev was rescued from the National Security Building where he was a prisoner. National Security personnel were overwhelmed by the numbers of protesters and there was no violence. Police were demonstrating aga...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Oct 2020 · 1 response

The country is now close to completing the seventh month since the start of the pandemic, which has claimed over 145 thousand lives so far, and the daily death toll is still stubbornly stationary at around 700, demonstrating the exasperatingly slow deceleration of the disease in the country. Agai...

The NBU Council gives a reprimand to Rozhkova and Sologub
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Oct 2020

The NBU Council gave a reprimand and expressed distrust of the First Deputy Head of the NBU Kateryna Rozhkova and the Deputy Head Dmytro Sologub at the NBU Council meeting on October 2nd, according to the NBU Press-Release published today.According to epravda.com.ua the NBU Governor Kyrylo Shevch...

British Appeals Court's rule on BCV gold
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 Oct 2020

On October 5, a British Appeals Court ruled that the legal fight over $1 billion in Venezuelan gold stored in the vaults of the Bank of England (BOE) be remitted back to the Commercial Court that ruled in favor of Juan Guaidó’s Interim Government, seeking clarity on two issues: (1) The UK governm...

Politics: Corruption and rule of law in the 4T sphere
MEXICO · Report · 05 Oct 2020

Last week’s shocking Supreme Court ruling authorizing President López Obrador to hold a popular consultation in which voters were to decide whether to put on trial all five previous presidents for any supposed misdeeds tells a very damning story about the state of democracy and the rule of law in...

Pressure on Guedes increases and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Oct 2020

Negotiations around the creation of the Renda Cidadã program continue. Parliamentarians will request that Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (DEM-AP) set a new date for analysis of the presidential vetoes on payroll tax exemptions and the sanitation regulatory framework. On Friday, October 9, elect...

Economics: A few positive signs but still a long way to recovery
MEXICO · Report · 05 Oct 2020

Some of the economic indicators released over the past months proved to be more mixed than the dismal, depression levels reported for the mid-to-late spring amid pandemic lockdown measures that were applied to most industries. July produced another contraction of industrial activity, but this ti...

Where are China’s dollar inflows going?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 05 Oct 2020 · 2 responses

• In recent months the PBoC’s reported foreign exchange reserves have not behaved properly given the huge increase in inflows on the trade and financial accounts. The trade surplus has exploded to 4-5 percent of GDP, from less than half that, and net portfolio inflows are equal to over 2 percent ...

Russia’s political/pandemic update: The light is dim, the tunnel looks longer
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Oct 2020

It looks as though earlier hopes to contain the spread of the coronavirus within a relatively short time frame evaporated in September. Newly registered cases in Europe (including Russia) started to rise much faster, and in the Americas they remained high, as well. The epidemiological situation i...

​Teflon President
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Oct 2020

It is all over the news, 91% of 1,200 surveyed respondents said they approved of President Rodrigo Duterte’s performance and trusted him. The survey was conducted from September 14-20, following one of the worst outbreaks of covid19 in the region and the most stringent and longest lockdowns anywh...

Not bad, but too soon to celebrate
TURKEY · Report · 05 Oct 2020

Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 1%, m/m, in September, with the 12-month rate remaining almost flat over August, at 11.7% (August: 11.8%). The error in our forecast, which was even slightly higher than the consensus (of 1.3%), largely stemmed from food and transportation categories,...

A more prolonged closure supports further accommodation
ISRAEL · Report · 05 Oct 2020

Recent economic indicators, such as weekly credit card purchases and Google mobility, point to economic contraction since the renewed lockdown. The government is leaning towards a more prolonged closure, with a gradual re-opening of activity. Economic deterioration and a more prolonged closure su...

Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict escalates
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Oct 2020

On October 4 the Armenian controlled city of Stepankert was hit by rockets and artillery. The Armenians retaliated with artillery fire and rockets on Ganja which is Azerbaijan's second city. This is a serious escalation of the conflict over the disputed Nagorno Karabakh Region.Both nations have r...

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