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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Armenia claims it thwarted coup involving Russia as relations sour even more
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Sep 2024

On September 18, Armenian news reported that Armenia foiled a coup attempt. It was alleged as hatched by a faction recruiting and educating in Russia. Three people were arrested in connection with the plot. An investigation has been launched into seven suspects, five Armenian nationals and two fr...

A dark fourth quarter, continued
ECUADOR · In Brief · 19 Sep 2024

As a follow up and complement to our monthly report for September, we present here the latest update from the Central Bank to forecast GDP growth this year. The Central Bank has downgraded y/y growth from 1% to 0.9% in view of the unpublished yet results for H1. Although we concur with a lower y/...

Groundhog Day
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Sep 2024

The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decided to hike the target for the benchmark Selic rate from 10.50% per year to 10.75% per year, in line with expectations from both analysts and market participants. The upward revision of the output gap estimate — thought to be near zero at the last Copo...

Policy rate unchanged, as expected, statement arguably more dovish
TURKEY · Report · 19 Sep 2024

The CBRT/MPC kept the policy rate unchanged at 50% at today’s meeting, in line with expectations. As for the statement (link here), we’ve noted a few modifications that could all together be interpreted as, arguably, having moved it in a more dovish direction.

The Copom announced the new basic interest rate, the Senate approved the federal credit program Acredita, and Health Minister Nísia announced a dengue fever prevention program
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Sep 2024

As expected, the Central Bank announced an increase in the basic interest rate (Selic) to 10.75% per year. The decision was unanimous. Naturally, there was a political reaction. Yesterday, September 18, the Senate approved a federal government bill that creates the "Acredita no Primeiro Passo" Pr...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 18 Sep 2024

Sep 5 Government: The First Deputy Prime Minister, Mr. Sklyar, met with Gazprom's CEO, Mr. Miller, to discuss issues of cooperation. Government: Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan want to create a trade and logistics hub on the border, investments are estimated at $62 mln. Sep 6 Energy Ministry: Kazakhsta...

Oil revenues will set the tone
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Sep 2024

Prior to July 28, inflation had been contained thanks to tight control over the official exchange rate, strong competition, and highly price-elastic consumer demand. In August, however, the inflation rate soared to 1.4 percent, double July’s 0.7-percent rate. We attribute this acceleration to a s...

A dark fourth quarter
ECUADOR · Report · 18 Sep 2024

One thing that can be said about Daniel Noboa is that he does not procrastinate. In the midst of a severe energy crisis caused by the bad situation of the electricity sector, he sent a bill proposing the re-installation of foreign military bases in Ecuador. The last US military base, located in M...

Lula met with the heads of the three branches of government to discuss the wildfires across the country, the CAE will meet to discuss Tax Reform, and the Copom will announce the new basic interest rate today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Sep 2024

After the worsening of wildfires across the country, President Lula called an emergency meeting yesterday with the heads of the three branches of government. The President of the Supreme Federal Court, Luis Roberto Barroso, stated that the National Justice Council has recommended that judges prio...

Political crisis rumbles on; growth slows, CA shifts to surplus and fiscal deficit increases; we retain our yearend forecast of PEN3.9:USD1
PERU · Report · 17 Sep 2024 · 1 response

In this report, we discuss our new quarterly forecasts, which are guided by our three scenarios: base, low and high cases. On politics, we remain firm on our base case, wherein President Dina Boluarte stays in power until the end of her term in July 2026. Moreover, we have reduced the probability...

Lula signed into law the bill on payroll taxes, the Copom will meet today to decide on the basic interest rate, and Lula will meet with the heads of government to discuss the wildfire situation in the country
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Sep 2024

Yesterday, President Lula signed into law the bill addressing the reinstatement of payroll taxes. There were five vetoes, most of them related to provisions that established Non-Tax Credit Collection and Negotiation Centers. President Lula has scheduled a meeting for this afternoon with the heads...

Ambitious official targets
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 17 Sep 2024

President Javier Milei presented the 2025 budget proposal to the Chamber of Deputies. Normally, this procedure is carried out by the Minister of Economy, but this year the head of state wanted to do it personally to emphasize that balancing the fiscal accounts is the crucial goal of his economic ...

Government announces Public Administration Reform
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 17 Sep 2024

The government announced yesterday its proposal for restructuring, rationalization, and elimination of duplications in public institutions, a key element of the fiscal reform it has committed to implementing. The goal is to reduce spending and improve efficiency. According to the government, the ...

US accuses China of supplying Russia directly with military goods for the first time
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Sep 2024

Various events surrounding the relationship between Russia and China have unfolded recently that demonstrate the important role of China in the Ukraine war—and the role both countries have in supporting each other’s strategic objectives. On September 11, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell...

Economics: The trend toward reduced hiring extends through July as wages start to reflect the pressure
MEXICO · Report · 16 Sep 2024

Labor market indicators for the second quarter and July of this year show a slowdown in employment that largely mirrors how the various segments of the economy are performing. The deceleration is mainly to be found in the primary and manufacturing sectors but has also extended to services, the we...

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