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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Industry contracts in April amid the lockdown, but with now surprises
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 May 2020

According to Rosstat Industrial output contracted in April by 6.6% y-o-y and 9.2% m-o-m, which can be treated as a relatively good outcome compared to many other countries. In March, for instance, the industry in the EU and Euro area posted double-digit dive both in y-o-y and m-o-m. Note that in ...

US pulls out of Open Skies accusing Russia of breaches
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 May 2020

On May 21 the United States said that it would pull out of the Open Skies treaty because Russia is breaking it. There are 35 signatories of the treaty. The US will leave in November 2020. The treaty was signed in 2002. It permits signatories to fly surveillance flights over each others' land. The...

50 bps – that’s the new interest rate cut by the South Africa Reserve Bank
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 May 2020

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has once again announced that it is cutting the benchmark interest rate following today’s conclusion of its Monetary Policy Committee’s scheduled May meeting. The repo rate is being cut by 50 basis points following the 200 bps cuts implemented from end-March ...

Belarusian president disqualifies opponent
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 May 2020

On May 19 the leader of Belarus' main opposition party has been barred from standing in the presidential election scheduled for August 9 2020. Mikalay Statkevich has been forbidden to run for election because of a previous conviction. He served a jail term for organizing riots. 10 of the 55 who t...

Another 50 bps down, more to come
TURKEY · Report · 21 May 2020

At today’s rate-setting meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee reduced the policy rate (weekly-repo) by another 50 bps to 8.25% (simple), bringing the cumulative cuts since Turkey’s first official COVID case (March 11th) to 250 bps --and to 1575 bps since the easing cycle began in July.

OFZ: Going below 6%
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 21 May 2020

Last Friday the yield of the longest OFZ dropped below 6% for the first time ever. Strong demand from both domestic and international investors not only pushed the curve down but also allowed the Finance Ministry to set a new single day placement record this Wednesday — R169 bln. Market participa...

US and Russia row over Venezuela
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 May 2020

On May 19 the US blocked a UN resolution condemning the use of mercenaries in Venezuela. Russia said there was a conspiracy to overthrow President Maduro who is pro-Russian. Maduro said the plot was conceived in Washington DC and his army defeated a seaborne invasion. People have been arrested in...

Russia Q1 data in shows severe GDP fall
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 May 2020

On May 19 Vedomosti newspaper published statistics on Q1 for Russia. There was 1.6% y o y growth. The economy shrank 28% in April. Analysts reckon that most of this is due to quarantine and a third is due to the oil price crash to USD 18 p b. It is estimated that there will be a GDP 16% drop in Q...

Moldova seeks extradition of billionaire fraudster
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 May 2020

Moldova have charged Vlad Plahotniuc with defrauding the country of over USD 1 billion. Plahotniuc is a Moldovan living in the US. From 2012-14 he allegedly stole the money from one of the country's main banks. The theft amounted to over 12% of the country's GDP!The country is seeking Plahotniuc'...

The debate over chloroquine reinforces polarization
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 May 2020

The Ministry of Health today announced a protocol that allows for the use of chloroquine for mild cases of COVID-19 in the Unified Health System (SUS). Until then, the protocol established the prescription of the drug only for more severe cases. This issue was one of the reasons that led to t...

The formal default approaches
ARGENTINA · Report · 20 May 2020 · 1 response

In our May 14 report, we pointed out that the government had passed the ball to the bondholders and was waiting for a counter-proposal to further advance in the current tense debt negotiations. Effectively, local authorities sought more precise definitions from creditors and also to sense how far...

After much ordeal, fiscal bills are passed
ECUADOR · Report · 20 May 2020 · 2 responses

The National Assembly approved both the Humanitarian Bill and the Ordering of Public Finances Bill after days of hot debate and even within the request of Correistas and Social Christians to archive the second bill. While the approval of the Humanitarian Bill introduced major changes eliminating ...

The military gains space in the government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 May 2020

The interim Minister of Health, General Eduardo Pazuello, on May 19 appointed nine men with a military background to positions in the ministry, further expanding the influence of the Armed Forces in the Jair Bolsonaro government. Even though Pazuello is temporarily commanding the Ministry of Heal...

Essential CIS Politics: May 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 19 May 2020

• The coronavirus has continued to spread throughout the region. • Russian oil companies are considering delaying dividend payments. • Ukraine passed a banking act that enables it to receive an IMF loan. • Belarus is behaving as though the coronavirus does not exist. • In Kazakhstan the C...

Covid-19 is retreating
HUNGARY · Report · 19 May 2020

The Covid-19 epidemic has been retreating in the inner part of Europe since late April. Hungary joined this trend with about a week’s lag in early May, its stock number of active cases decreasing since then. The official view currently is that the epidemic is coming to its end, but the threat of ...

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