NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR: CHINA’S OUTLOOK IN THE TIME OF TRADE WARS...

Kazakh ruling family's UK property declared legal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Apr 2020

A London court has ruled in favor of the Kazakh leader's family on April 8. The Nazarbayev family has over GBP 100 million worth of property in the United Kingdom. Nursultan Nazarbayev has the title 'Leader if the Nation' in Kazakhstan - he retired as president in 2019. The National Crime Agency ...

Russian State buys majority of Sberbank
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Apr 2020

On April 10 the Russian State purchased a majority stake in Sberbank which is the biggest of all banks in Russia. The State bought it from the Russian Central Bank. The deal cost USD 28.5 billion. The price is based on the average share price of Sberbank in March 2020. Almost all the shares have ...

Gulf weekly: OPEC+ forges 10m b/d deal, Qatar & Abu Dhabi issue $17bn
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Apr 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * OPEC+ agrees to 2-years of historic cuts but market is not yet impressed. * Qatar issued $10bn in bonds and Abu Dhabi issued $7bn. Dub...

Covid-19 will boost inflation in Q2
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Apr 2020

After a brief spell of disinflation earlier this year, we now expect inflation to speed up in the second quarter, owing in part to Covid-19 and related factors. Month-on-month inflation will exceed 50 percent starting in May. The government has begun to ramp up public spending. We think it’ll ...

GlobalSource Partners' Analyst Webinar Series: Turkey - The Shock, the Context, the Response and the Outlook
TURKEY · Report · 10 Apr 2020

Live from Istanbul, Murat Ucer addresses the prospects for Turkey's economy going forward, the country's fiscal and monetary response to the coronavirus, and the fx flow and balance of payments issues the country is currently facing.​

The “real” China stimulus plan
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Apr 2020

In a key meeting of the Politburo on March 28, China proposed a series of stimulus measures. However, these measures will account for about half the size of the 2009 stimulus as a percentage of GDP. In addition, some, such as SME loans, will be slowed due to bureaucratic delays. We believe a seco...

Bolsonarismo’s new narrative
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Apr 2020

The use of hydroxychloroquine in people infected with coronavirus is the new bet of President Jair Bolsonaro to try to take back the initiative in the political debate. According to the president, doctors have been using the medicine for almost two months in Brazil. Yet, although there are promis...

Russian Government predicts prolonged recession
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2020

On April 6 RBK published a summary of the Kremlin's two stress testes that it has developed to estimate the financial robustness of 646 firms which the government considers strategically important. The rosier of the two scenarios says that the quarantine will last into June 2020 and Urals oil wil...

South Africa extends COVID-19 lockdown while the economy is feeling the effects of the pandemic
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Apr 2020

Midnight today will mark the second week of South Africa’s COVID-19 lockdown, implemented by President Ramaphosa hoping to "flatten the infection curve" of the virus. The lockdown was scheduled to end on April 16. However, due to the nature of the virus, there had been speculation that the lockdo...

Turkish Macroeconomics in the Time of Corona The Shock, the Context, the Response and the Outlook
TURKEY · Presentation · 09 Apr 2020

In this presentation, Murat Ucer discusses Turkey's state of activity and balance of payments issues amid the coronavirus epidemic. He evaluates the country's fiscal and monetary response, including lower rates and the expansion of the monetary base, and concludes that a more comprehensive fiscal...

China virus check – week ending April 4
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Apr 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) Rising coal use in the power industry and iron ore blast furnace operating rates. 2) Traffic congestion grows – a good sign for the return of economic activity. 3) Metro rail traffic is rising in all four cities we track. 4) Expre...

Russian consumer spending drops dramatically
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2020

Consumer spending in Russia has fallen by 33% in a month. This is due to the lockdown.Non-working started on March 28 and will continue to the end of April. From March 28 to April 5. VTB account holders spend 33% less than usual. Sberbank account holders spent 23% less than the same period in 201...

Partial truce between Bolsonaro and Mandetta; Congress votes on emergency aid to states
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Apr 2020

The meeting of President Jair Bolsonaro with the Minister of Health, Luiz Henrique Mandetta, which took place this morning, may have sealed a momentary “truce” in the relationship between the two. When leaving the Planalto Palace, Mandetta declared to journalists, “I´m good, just work." In an int...

Russian economic policy: Searching for a pass between Scylla and Charybdis
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Apr 2020

As the number of newly registered daily coronavirus cases in Russia exceeded 1,100 for a third day in a row, thus bringing the total number to 8,672 people as of April 8 (morning data), it looks increasingly likely that tighter lockdown measures are likely and they may last longer than was annou...

Ukraine banking bill stalled
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Apr 2020

On April 7 politicians in the Ukrainian Parliament proposed 16 000 amendments to the banking law known as the 'anti-Kolomoisky bill'. The amendments seemed intended to stymie the legislative process. They will take at least weeks to debate. Ihor Kolomoisky used to own PrivatBank which was nationa...