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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Netanyahu "wins" the elections, but coalition formation will be difficult
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Mar 2020

Politics: According to surveys of the three main TV stations (conducted at the voting areas), the right-wing block received 59 seats to 55 for the left/center/Arab parties. Lieberman received 6 seats. The Likud party received 37 seats to 33 for Blue and White. After 62% of all votes have been cou...

The economy continued to slow down in 2019
PANAMA · In Brief · 02 Mar 2020

GDP grew 3.0% during 2019, according to official figures released today. This number coincides with our projection made in mid-year. The fourth quarter increased by 3.3%, the better performance of the year (3.1% in the first quarter; 2.9% in the second quarter; and 2.7% in the third quarter). As ...

Politics: Women rise up against violence
MEXICO · Report · 02 Mar 2020

In recent months there has been an intensification of feminist demonstrations largely in response to a significant rise in femicides. In a little over a decade the number of murders of women has more than tripled and appears to be on track to soon quadruple. Moreover, official statistics show tha...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Mar 2020

Due to predilection or incapacity, when faced with disputes Bolsonaro repeatedly chooses confrontation instead of searching for negotiated solutions. With this, instead of minimizing costs, he increases them, as can be seen in the current arm wrestling with Congress for budget resources. That str...

Institutional dispute threatens Tax Reform and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Mar 2020

The 2019 GDP results are the highlight of the economic agenda. Due to the coronavirus, the Ministry of Economy has downgraded projections for 2020 GDP growth. News of the video shared by Jair Bolsonaro calling for protests against Congress and in support of the government on March 15 continues to...

The car that ran you over is not the one you saw
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Mar 2020

The biggest problem facing the global economy is that the shock provoked by the Coronavirus has caught the economic authorities with (almost) no instruments to avoid more intense negative effects on activity. The upshot, despite the hope the world will overcome this new virus quickly, is a steep ...

Economics: Soft economic and fiscal results
MEXICO · Report · 02 Mar 2020

The economic data released in February continued to reveal areas of increasing weakness, especially on the level of industrial output, which extended its downtrend with a 1.0% contraction as both construction and manufacturing activity slowed further. As a result of those trends, GDP fell a real ...

First case of COVID-19 in the country
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 02 Mar 2020

Authorities of the Ministry of Public Health just announced the first COVID-19 case in the country: a 62 years old male Italian tourist who flew-in from Italy on February 22. The tourist, who arrived in the country without symptoms, is already in confinement in a military hospital and is doing we...

Putin hints at concessions to OPEC
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Mar 2020

On March 1 Putin said the present oil price is ''acceptable''. This is taken as a clue that Moscow will give in to pressure from OPEC at a meeting in Vienna this week. Coronavirus has led to a fall in demand for oil and driven down oil prices. Putin used his favorite word 'stability' to describe ...

War in the time of corona
TURKEY · Report · 01 Mar 2020 · 1 response

In March, we expect political instability to climb gradually in Turkey with or without the Idlib War, reaching a crescendo if Covid-19 comes a’knocking and forcing “changes” in the tenuous political equilibrium. Peace or ceasefire in Idlib is not a likely scenario. We give Turkey 70% odds to p...

Russian Arctic Sea traffic up fourfold in 3 years
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Mar 2020

On February 28 the Director of the Russian Northern Sea Route Administration announced that the tonnage shipped via the Russian Arctic has increased 430% in 3 years. The total was 31.5 million tons of goods. The increase is due to several factors. Global warming has made most of the route navigab...

At the crossroad of coronavirus traffic
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Feb 2020

Indonesia is literally at the crossroad of coronavirus traffic. Surrounded by countries that have been affected by the virus, so far there have been no reports of coronavirus infections in Indonesia. This fact has cast a lot of doubt on the credibility of the Indonesian authorities because Chines...

UK buys Russian gold
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Feb 2020

On February 28 RBC (a Russian business newspaper) reported that in 2019 93% of Russian gold sold went to the United Kingdom. The UK purchased USD 5.33 billion of Russian gold. That is an 11-fold increase on 2018. The British spent more on gold from Russia than oil and gas combined. Switzerland bo...

Zelenskiy calls for emergency parliament session, Cabinet reshuffle expected
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Feb 2020

President Zelenskiy called for emergency parliament session on Wednesday, March 4, according to the President Office. Everyone is talking about Honcharuk's Cabinet dismissal. Multiple rumors are around. Last week, the media discussed Sergey Tigipko, an ex-official of the Viktor Yanukovytch presid...

Russian appoints trade representative to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Feb 2020

On February 25 Russia sent a trade representative to Ukraine. There has been no such person since 2013. It is a sign of a thaw in relations. Russia remains the 3rd biggest export market for Ukraine. Trade has fallen since last year but only by about 10% which is not much considering the conflict.

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